Tesla (TSLA) sales decline in China despite Model Y refresh and record discounts

Tesla deliveries Q1 2025: * 336,681 in total, as stated by Tesla * 134,607 in China per this article * 53,952 in Europe per Troy * so in the rest of the world, mostly US: 148,122 Tesla deliveries Q2 2025: * *384,000* in total, as stated by Tesla * 128,803 in China per this article * 55,247 in Europe per Troy * so in the rest of the world, mostly US: *199950* Tesla increased deliveries by *>35%* in US and other countries. Each with their own conclusion. edit: the increase is based on what tesla said and is not 3rd party verified. The third party verified numbers are flat or down edit2: corrected the numbers

443,956 is the Q2 2024 deliveries number total, Q2 2025 is 384,122. This is an increase from Q1 2025 (which is always a lower quarter), but a decrease yoy.

> Tesla deliveries Q2 2025: > > 443,956 in total, as stated by Tesla > 128,803 in China per this article > 55,247 in Europe per Troy > so in the rest of the world, mostly US: 259,906 Where are you getting these numbers? https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-second-quarter-2025-production-deliveries-deployments

Since you corrected your comment after other people mentioned it, but didn't correct your Q2 2025 numbers, I'll ding you again to correct your Q2 delivery numbers. It should be 384,122... not 443,956. 443,956 was from Q2 2024. Therefore, your "rest of the world" number would be 200,072. There could definitely have been some increases in the US with the refreshed model Y. However, Tesla was starting to produce vehicles for the Indian market, and with the trip the Trump administration made to the middle east, with Musk tagging along, I imagine he made a deal to ship some additional cars there as well.

I just now corrected the numbers. I had the wrong number for Q2 Instead of 75% increase is 35% increase. from all indicators Q2 numbers are worse in Canada, Australia and whatever countries are left I'm implying that such an increase in US, while all the other regions are down or flat, is unlikely and Tesla is cooking the numbers.

There have been suspicions in the past that Tesla is including used cars in their delivery numbers, but that's just speculation, and would suggest their inventory numbers are much higher. No doubt their inventories are high, but this would make them MUCH higher, which I kind of doubt. Increasing deliveries versus Q1 isn't exactly a difficult task due to seasonality. China may not see such a huge increase Q/Q (or even a decline) due to vigorous competition. There was a slight uptick in Europe Q/Q... but there's also loads of competition there, and Musk has built some real negative sentiment for the company. The US could definitely have seen an uptick in the quarter. I did start seeing a lot more refreshed model Ys floating around in my area in Q2. I just checked and they haven't technically started deliveries in India yet. That'll supposedly start in July. However, again, I do imagine they likely increased deliveries to the middle east. Anyways, I doubt it matters that much, their total deliveries are down.

Finally global crash is coming.

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Does delivery = sale?

Basically, yes. Deliveries can lag a few days from sales but it is a close enough proxy until we get the rest of the numbers at the earnings call later this month.

Be careful when comparing numbers, there are YoY and QoQ numbers. The Q2 numbers did decline YoY but increased QoQ. Most reports use YoY since it gives a more accurate representation due to seasonal buying patterns.

Yes, I believe that is the case (or a reasonable approximation of sales). I'm sure someone on here will provide the nitty, gritty terminology details.

Stupid question, does dealership’s order for showroom consider as deliveries/sales?

>Tesla is cooking the numbers. That's the conclusion we're left with

>Most reports use YoY since it gives a more accurate representation due to seasonal buying patterns. So ... Whats the point of QoQ numbers except for making it seem better than it is?

Tesla don't actually define what deliveries are. I assume they include 'sales' to dealers as well as customers.

I the real world yes. In tezzlas fraudulent accounting books absolutely not

the most profitable part of their business is now gone. trump loves the doublecross he remembered when everyone was calling elon the president, so he has crushed elon after taking him for millions and some smart computer stuff

This must be false reporting, I was told that once the Model Y refresh was ready it would be a record quarter. Surely I wasn’t lied to?

Delivery to empty parking lot

Delivered to a vacant lot.

Surely!

This.

What is called a delivery under sale is highly questionable and they might actually be sitting in a parking lot somewhere.

It doesn't help when your redesign is awful as you are trying to save money by using an existing light bar from your Chinese supplier  and you end up with design that looks horrible from outside

Wait, design of new Model Y is pretty decent.

Those Europe figures don't look quite right.  Is Troy really talking about all of Europe?  In just the six countries that provide daily registration data (Norway, the Netherlands, the UK, Spain, Denmark and Sweden) Tesla saw deliveries increase from 26,249 to 30,679 from Q1 to Q2.  That is a gain of 4,430 in just six countries vs. a gain of 1,295 in all of Europe like you are showing.  It is possible sales were down in the rest of Europe though. I think Tesla pushed a bunch of sales into Korea in the quarter (like 6k) which is unusual, and potentially a big fleet deal.  They might have done a few others like that to try and make up the numbers, but I would expect anything like that to be done at a discount and therefore have a knock-on impact on margins.

Designers even the ones who have raved about previous model y have noted that's lot of poor styling elements in the vehicle and how it feels the light bar was simply tacked on and lot more panel gaps (likely to cut costs)

That is Juniper to those in the know and the most dominant force in the automotive world!

That is exactly why you would include QoQ numbers. Its not even nefarious- any company with a dip in sales would spin it.

Tesla doesn’t have dealers. They sell direct to customers.

KTLA5 lied to me. Their headlines “attacks on tesla dealerships grow nationwide”. Along with Wikipedia, the telegraph, and etc. they ought to change it to stores eh

Correct. Although showrooms and service centers would be best. In my state, the dealers made it so that manufacturers can’t get a financing license. So if you borrow to pay for your car instead of showing up with a check from your lender you have to take delivery in an adjacent state. Lots of roadblocks. But that also means Tesla can’t claim sales to a dealer as sales like the other OEMs have for years. (A process known as “stuffing the channel” making dealers take a huge “floor plan” in order to keep getting new products.)

I don't trust their numbers; maybe some others have found ways to match registrations to deliveries. Tesla supposedly improved deliveries in turkey due to a unique variation that bypassed luxury taxes. If the numbers are real, they certainly don't feel sustainable.