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So next year
And what HW?
Love having Tesla with FSD, updates just keep getting better and better 🫶
HW3 is so cooked. I think they are purposefully ignoring it, so they can optimize the unsupervised build (whenever that comes out).
So not full self driving
Major doubt on 6 weeks with 10x parameters 😂
They have literally said this publicly
If you can find it in yourself to believe anything Musk says, he already admitted HW3 is a dead end and there will be plans to replace HW3 with HW${x} at some point for those that paid full FSD price. I would not expect much if any further updates to FSD on HW3. And I would argue that Musk would sooner refund full-paid FSD users than spend the R&D, labor, and hardware costs of upgrading these cars.
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Hopefully they give out another month trial.
Probably for us peasants, included with Christmas update on 12/23.
Class action needs to happen. You can’t sell FSD to HW3 owners and just ignore it for years while continuously making significant progress on HW4. Just offer a full refund to HW3 owners or offer a free retrofit.
Yeah I think a lot of people lose sight of this. It's so cool that my car gets better
Overpromise, underdeliver, never on time. Trademark Elon Musk shit.
HW5 and a yoke, don’t let these rounders keep porgrsss down
At this point, how do you trust anything this guy says anymore?
My car never nags me anymore unless I wear mirrored sunglasses. HW3.
Enjoy it while it lasts. HW5 will come out and they’ll stop updating HW4
I think even 2x would be amazing. Then again we're pretty new here with a 23 MXP w/hw4.
Turning the impossible into merely "late".
You can’t trust a word out of this liar’s mouth
Major doubt for those of us on HW3 also
Expect the update to the fleet around the 12th of Never.
The name is Full Self-Driving (Supervised).
HW5 and no steering wheel or yoke, can’t let these drivers stand in the way of progress
In like 2 years, maybe. FSD on HW4 is already incredible now, and I can only imagine how good it will be 2 years from now.
They will have 1 Service Center in Alaska ready to upgrade you, you just have to drive there and get an appointment first. /s
Nobody trusts his timelines 100% obviously, but it's still useful to know what they're working on and what the current plan is for timeframe.
Next version will be: ''Actually Full Self-Driving (supervised)."
Jesus what a tough crowd in here lol.
Ashok said roughly 10x. It's not just Elon. 10x is real.
It’s already full self driving. It’s just not full autonomous driving.
Nah, it needs to spell a juvenile word when written as an acronym.
Still waiting for full FSD.
They're not going to fit a 10x bigger model on HW3. They've already indicated that they're basically done developing for HW3, and they certainly won't be developing bigger models for HW3. They're just going to upgrade the hardware for FSD owners when unsupervised is achieved.
FSD AF
They have already admitted that FSD unsupervised will not run on HW3. Now they are just trying to wait as long as possible so they dont have to retrofit so many cars.
Ignore it for years? It received major updates until December 2024. It's been less than a year since the last significant update. In fact right now, HW4 has actually been without a significant update for even longer.
Those two things mean exactly the same thing. Tesla has tricked you in thinking its somehow different.
Karens everywhere. My goddamn car drives me to work. It's nuts.
Better!
Same here, I'm on HW3 and I'm nearly completely hands off and nag-free for most of my drives.
> HW3. They're just going to upgrade the hardware for FSD owners Hopefully this actually happens. Bought 6 months too early to get HW4. Though on the bright side, the price of the car went up $12k over those 6 months (Covid late 2021). So I would’ve grossly overpaid if I had waited
They can't afford to give refunds, they are dangerously close to unprofitablility, and will need all the cash they have to float them to full roll out of robotaxi.
Everything he says is his optimistic opinion of what will happen. To get the cold hard facts, you need to wait for shareholder calls and earnings reports.
Another round of massive user beta testing. Good luck and stay safe!
speak for yourself, HW3 owner outside the US, with FSD purchased 6 years ago, still no FSD at this point, starting to become ridiculous.
As real as Level 5 FSD in 2016?
6 months too early? HW4 started being put into cars in 2023 (early 2023 Model S/X, middle 2023 Model Y, early 2024 Model 3).
I doubt a refund to full-paid FSD users would be acceptable to the class of people who bought based on Musk’s “advertising”
It's already been announced that people who outright purchased FSD on HW3 will get a free upgrade when FSD goes full unsupervised. Realistically, that means very few HW3 people will get an upgrade because it's going to be awhile until FSD is fully unsupervised. Most likely, people will either upgrade their car, sell their car, or the car will have been in a wreck or something.
You really gonna pretend this is the same level of a claim? They've already delivered on parameter count increases.
Yeah, I certainly feel bad for those outside of North America. It's a shame your regulators are holding this back.
Hmm, must be thinking of something else then. I missed some upgrade that allows Grok in the car, I think? And maybe some steam games
I feel FSD should be much cheaper until it actually gets much closer to unsupervised
You're thinking of MCU3, which you did miss by just a few months. The car has two major computers, one for Autopilot and one for the infotainment system. They're completely separate things.
youre thinking of Ryzen
Ah, the AMD Ryzen chip? Sadly they probably won’t upgrade that one along with the FSD chip?
I am not a contract lawyer, but I would consider myself made whole if Tesla refunded me my money. I bought a Tesla because I wanted an EV, not FSD, but I did buy FSD based on Elon’s promises back in 2018. Unsure how that works out for Tesla with folks who bought the car because of Elon’s FSD promises. That could be a can of worms.
Tricked how? It’s undeniable that the cars can drive entire trips without any human input. You may have fallen for anti-Tesla FUD.
Yes, MCU3 uses a Ryzen chip. And yeah, they probably won't upgrade it I'd imagine, since it's not necessary for FSD.
Someone tell the airline industry that their autopilot is fake because a pilot still has to be in the plane.
But it’s already lagging significantly behind and they have openly admitted it won’t be able to achieve full autonomy similar to RoboTaxi but that wasn’t the original promise of FSD when it was sold to HW3 owners. So now they are just waiting for HW3 vehicles to eventually get traded in a few years so they don’t have to retrofit them.
Hw3 were promised s product by the end of the year 5 years ago, for more money then you are paying for it in the subscription plan. But since it drives chunkythepotato to work, i guess no one should be mad...
Well count me in because I bought my 3 in July of 2023 😢
Im willing to give the guy who has solved more impossible problems than anyone in history some patience with solving more impossible problems.
Not where I am, HW4 cars have it, and the regulator already indicated that Tesla has not submitted anything for approval on HW3. Rumor has it that the computer can't keep up with the object tracking because of how chaotic the roads can be here.
HW5 in a year and a half. Will probably get HW4 updates for around another year after that. So 2.5 years give or take. Sounds reasonable to me. Some cellphones get less updates.
RIP HW3
I might just wait out of spite
I'm just commenting on your "ignored for years" statement, which was purely false. FSD owners will get upgraded to HW4 for free when unsupervised is achieved.
Im willing to give the guy who has solved more impossible problems than anyone in history some patience with solving more impossible problems.
“Actually Smart Full Self Driving (Supervised)”
When you can’t vibe code you make viby statements.
HW3 drives you to work too.
Nah, HW3 works too. Just depends on if/when Tesla is allowed to release it. What country, by the way?
this is a fantasy we would all like to believe, but shouldn't. HW3 is never going to be upgraded or retrofitted. There isn't room, the sensors are too low resolution .. They are just feeding us nonsense to avoid the protest.
Or in other words, “we will set an arbitrary goal post that we get to define and it will be several years in the future long enough that all the HW3 cars will be out of commission and we don’t have to retrofit anyone. Meanwhile we simultaneously also claim RoboTaxi is ready for public use.”
nope, they are not going to upgrade our hardware. Check out the reliability of Elon's preductions on things like this. Nonsense, pure. We are going to have to accept this.
Unsupervised was the promise, right? If unsupervised isn't possible on HW4 yet, why would people get upgraded to HW4? It wouldn't fulfill the promise.
Can somebody explain me what he wrote? For me, those are just a bunch of buzz-words. Nothing concrete, nothing tangible.
They upgraded people from HW2 to HW3 for free. Why do you think they wouldn't do the same for HW3 to HW4? It's easy to cherry-pick just the things he got wrong, but that doesn't paint an accurate picture.
Just one more HW version bro, promise it'll fix everything
Yes, if Tesla were doing better,they maybe wouldn’t wait. Now they will definitely wait.
IDK he said he was an authoritarian loon and he was. ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
They will try to offer free FSD with new car for you and then in a couple years it will be baked into every car’s price.
I'm a huge fan of FSD and all its accomplished. Today it curbed a wheel jumping in a very narrow makeshift right turn lane when cars in the real lane had stopped at a red light (I was making the right turn). The car did not slow down as much as I expect it should and jumped into this very narrow path with little visibility coming up on the crosswalk. I disengaged FSD and slowed it down right as my wheel lightly touched the curb. That was a first for me but I typically advocate for FSD use on freeways for concerns like this... Now it's not a theoretical concern though
So, when can HW3 be upgraded to HW4 for paid FSD owners ? Seems he mentioned it once and never heard about it again.
The problem for Tesla in ignoring hw3 cars is that It will ruin Tesla’s credibility in the promise of all cars will be FSD! Ruining that credibility means that future purchasers of Tesla have to factor in to the purchase decision the lifespan of vehicle. This would mean the second hand values would plummet and the lease costs for new cars would go up. Tesla, even though the vertical screen cars are receiving fewer updates are still better than most in updating software for out of warranty vehicles. They can’t lose the reputation!
I wish I could have waited just a little longer and got the refresh 3, but it would have been a terrible financial decision.
They once said that there will not be a CCS adapter for our cars. That happened. I'll wait.
Any chance, a couple of years from now, FSD is free with new car purchases? They did it with Autopilot back in the day.
I’d settle for working windshield wipers at this point.
Do the math, 6 weeks x 10. 60 weeks until release.
Not if you're a 2018 FSD customer and did not get what your paid for. It is no different from wire fraud.
I've already accepted the fact that we won't be getting it anytime soon... Probably never.
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If I had a dollar for every time musk had promised something and missed that deadline by years over never released I'd be a rich man
FSD 69 (because it fucks)
He already used that one! (Kinda)
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Evergreen tweet
Lol yeah okay
Broken record
Me over here with HW2.5 and thinking there will never be a good upgrade path
Or those god awful random brake checks on the freeway
The upgrade path is to buy a new car, lol.
Mhm. And lemme guess….in order to make use of its full capability you’ll need HW5 which will finally run full self driving (‘unsupervised’ or whatever it’s called now)? Does anyone seriously believe anything this dude says?
It’s Reddit, what do you expect
10X higher parameter count is one of those things that sounds impressive but means nothing without context. I'm hoping it's a good thing, but I have no idea what it actually means. Though given I have a HW3 Model 3, the real answer is probably nothing.
6 weeks means 2-3 years. He said banish would come out a couple months when he said it back in Feb 2024 lol
Yes been hearing this for years, hopefully it will be ready in a few years
😂😂😂😂
Should be Full Self-Driving (Aspirational)
100%. As a HW3 owner I've accepted it and will be buying the first AI5 Model 3s sometime in 2027 instead.
I got one of the original Model 3, early 2018, and I honestly thought "this car will drive itself within five years", because that's what Elon said. Now I just laugh.
Don’t forget the 28% interest since then.
Because the cost to upgrade to HW4 with HW4's cameras is just too much.
The vast majority of Tesla owners can’t sue or join a class action. Unless you specifically opted out of the arbitration agreement within the first 30 days after purchasing the vehicle.
Will I still have to keep putting my foot on the accelerator to get the car go to the set speed? Will it change lanes when I signal when I want to force the car to select a better lane? These are the main reasons why I canceled my subscription. It was just too annoying. If these simple issues get fixed, I’ll most likely resubscribe. Oh yeah. I forgot. Based on past history, 6 weeks in Elon time is more like 6 months.
In today’s economy? Maybe a 10 pc chicky nuggy.
More parameters means the FSD can recognize more complex patterns. Kind of like giving it a bigger brain with more connections. This typically allows the AI to understand more nuanced scenarios, handle edge cases better, and make more precise decisions. The jump in parameters suggests a major architecture upgrade, likely enabling FSD to interpret traffic, pedestrians, and road layouts more like a human driver. But it also means it will require more powerful onboard computing (or much better optimization) to run in real time. Elon is basically saying: The next-gen FSD will be a significantly more powerful AI brain, which will make it smarter, safer, and more human-like in its driving decisions.
This will 100% come out this year. Probably between late October and Thanksgiving.
More parameters means the FSD can recognize more complex patterns. Kind of like giving it a bigger brain with more connections. This typically allows the AI to understand more nuanced scenarios, handle edge cases better, and make more precise decisions. The jump in parameters suggests a major architecture upgrade, likely enabling FSD to interpret traffic, pedestrians, and road layouts more like a human driver. But it also means it will require more powerful onboard computing (or much better optimization) to run in real time. Elon is basically saying: The next-gen FSD will be a significantly more powerful AI brain, which will make it smarter, safer, and more human-like in its driving decisions.
Just give us a refund option
Plus sometimes his timelines are just 10 to 20% off,but the thing still happens.
Two years ago, sure. Now it's extremely good (though still requires supervision).
Yes.
Still doing them, all these years later…
The cost is doable, given how few people bought FSD back then. It's also nothing compared to the revenue that rides would generate. The upgrade would actually make more money than it loses. Also, the problem is compute. Although they might also do cameras just to make it uniform.
Can I go 2.5 to 3 to 4 some day?
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16x the details, tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies
> Those two things mean exactly the same thing. Tesla has tricked you in thinking its somehow different. Today my car fully self drove from our cottage to home with zero intervention. It's an L2 ADAS that can fully operate the car itself - it's not L5 autonomy. So no, the two things don't mean exactly the same thing at all.
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I want to subscribe, so I’m screwed ig?
Hw3 owner - never used fsd 🤷♂️
Just give use normal acc + lane centering, no phantom brakes, no freaking out when human takes over. Just... Be normal like everyone else.
Honestly I find FSD in its current state on HW3 isn’t _bad_. I don’t get phantom braking very often, and rarely have to intervene. And when I do intervene, it’s basically always just to prevent a wrong turn that might cost a couple minutes, not to prevent a crash. Still, I’d love someday to be able to watch a movie or fall asleep while the car drives me. Don’t know if it will ever happen (even for HW4), much less if my HW3 will ever get an upgrade
The sensors don’t have enough resolution. We’re talking about upgrading the entire package. The likelihood of that is about as good as them offering us retrofit front cameras.
The cameras are likely a minority of the cost. But they do have enough resolution. If they upgrade them, it'll be mainly for uniformity.
I don't know why people keep saying this lol. It has been confirmed time and time again that Tesla will retrofit HW3
Just curious what are you comparing the wipers to ? Because I've had 20+ cars and the Wipers on my Y work equally bad or good as any other car I've had.
not now elon, we're busy
I just want to be able to contribute data. We'd be fine with their mapping equipment on our car to help them learn our areas in California better. We can note what are bike lanes, etc (that FSD keeps driving in). HW4
What does retrofit HW3 mean? I can take my 2021 Model Y to get upgraded?
This dude keeps kicking the can down the road.
If you bought FSD and have HW3 then yes, Elon said they will offer this once they finalize FSD
They just say so to get your hopes up so you keep waiting. There is no real timeline here… and you won’t get FSD for several years to come. Mark my words: by the time they will offer retrofits 99% of the people that bought FSD already have a new car and Tesla can just say they delivered the retrofit to the 4 people with an old car to avoid a lawsuit.
It mainly depends on how long it takes for them to reach unsupervised on HW4. But they did upgrade people from HW2 to HW3 for free, so there's precedent for them following through with this.
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The number of parameters in a neural network determines the capacity for intelligence of the neural network. A 10x increase in parameter count drastically increases the intelligence of the network, assuming they increase training enough to saturate that extra capacity. Basically, FSD will get a lot smarter.
And yet, your car can drive itself better than literally any other car you can buy by a massive margin. And just in the last year or two it has improved drastically.
Nah, not needed. HW4 is it.
And then they tanked in price two years later. Although I wouldn’t have been able to get 1.9% financing then.
No, HW5 is scheduled to start production at the end of next year. This is HW4 software.
Yeah I guess I was lucky in getting the low interest rate and low price. Even if I’m stuck on HW3 for now, and the older MCU without Grok probably forever
Basically the number of "neurons" in an artificial neural network. It determines the capacity for intelligence of the network.
You've been hearing a 10x increase in parameters for years? There was only one prior parameter count increase of the end-to-end net that we know of that was released, and that was 5x when FSD v12.5 came out.
I'm holding out. I'll get upgraded or I'll get a settlement check eventually, it'll be one or the other.
God that is so cringe
coordinated sugar shy file meeting gold nine quiet saw strong *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev/home)*
Without specifics it is still effectively just buzzwords and marketing. This message could have been written anytime in the last few years (or next few years) and would mean the same meaningless thing.
so can it solve auto wiper problem Elon?
HW5......??
Coughbullshitcough
So what? What sense would it make to offer a retrofit before unsupervised FSD is actually finished? Also, it's already been confirmed that HW4 won't fit, so HW3 will likely get HW5. So be it if a fellow HW3 owner can't hold out.
Agreed. Tesla/Musk are avoiding using metrics that actually speak to safety and reliability. Parameter counts for models might be exciting for data scientists but don’t indicate anything about safety on the road and feel like wank and distraction.
It has not been confirmed. Wtf are you talking about? Latest earnings call they said they dont have a plan for it yet, will revisit this matter later.
Sure Jan
Tesla could eliminate part of the liability by offering existing HW3 owners WHO PURCHASED FSD an upgrade path that a) includes transfer of their FSD, AND b) provides a discount. The individual who gets the legacy, HW3 car hadn't purchased FSD, and I think that's going to be a little easier battle to fight in the courts for Tesla.
Trade you my Hardware 2.5 Model 3 ;-)
This subreddit used to be an island of positivity with fun stories and a community of people who love Tesla. It was great. Now it's endless negativity, TSLAQ, hate on Elon, and reposting FUD stories on Tesla.
That one went right over your head, huh?
Uh, because he delivers most of the time. Show me another person who has given us Starlink, SpaceX, Tesla, even FSD in its current form. I'll wait.
More like 10x 6 months.
Here are the 5 interventions i do on my drive to my two offices, not including edge cases - 1 - a stop sign that a train track intersects. HW4 treats this as a stop sign within a stop sign. You cannot do this with other cars around. Interestingly, the Dirty Tesla youtuber Chris lives in this town but he hasn't filmed intersection to my knowledge. 2 - Three miles later, a right hand turn lane opens up at a traffic light, which you can go straight at before it ends a quarter mile later. Left alone, fsd will always shifts into this lane to go straight at the light, only to merge back and cut people off. 3 - a short trip on i-75, which is has been under construction the last 2 years. The north bound is handling both lanes currently (as the south bound did last summer), so im driving south bound in the north lane. FSD cannot handle this. It did, however, finally get the map data that I cant take my usual on ramp. Or I could go to my other office, which on top of #3, I get - 4 - a digital school zone sign. Not in school session, the speed limit is 40. Map data tells fsd to go 45. It also tries to go 45 when school speeds are enforced. Oh yeah, I'm driving through a school zone during school times, so be sure to add problems not stopping for any school buses to that list. And finally 5 - a dirt road for 2 miles, which the car goes 45 mph in. It's michigan and the freeze/thaw causes bad corrugation and potholes. Im on my second set of wheels because the road has bent the first one. You obviously dont care about any of this, but I'm writing to demonstrate how different our experiences can be. Yes, it's better than when I became a beta user in fall of 21, but sooooooo much more was promised and sold.
Musk’s 2-week = 2-year. So, 6-week means it’s not happening.
Holding my breath over here for the HW 4 for upgrade for my HW 3 on my 19 X yeah I bet that’s gonna happen
Others may have more detailed tech on this, but the space for HW3 fit where the HW2 had been, and there was no upgrade needed for the cameras. Neither is true for HW4, which uses higher res cameras, takes more space and power.
Yeah well double RIP for us Intel folks
They will very likely retrofit original owners only.
So it was a month out one week ago. Now it’s 6 weeks out. In another two weeks, it would be only two months out. We’re getting closer!
With half the performances and capacity.
Is it just me, or was autopilot on hw3 better years ago? For highways at least I remember being able to set a speed and the car would try to hit that speed. Now I'm constantly manually intervening to get it to go faster. It feels like I'm dragging the car with me everywhere and I hate it.
He also told us 10.69 update would be the best ever, and to me, it did all the same mistakes the previous update did. I will believe it when I see it.
My 2024 Model 3 and 2025 Model Y already self drive without intervention. Improving on the existing version is very exciting. Had to drive a rental car recently and it was maddening not to have Tesla's FSD. Thank you Elon for saving lives and improving our quality of life.
5 years later... "Announcing HW10, the final FSD platform that will enable unsupervised driverless mobility, available next year!" (Chunky potato is a funny guy, thinks Ryzen is powerful enough for vision-only level 5)
Saving lives 😂
🤣🤣🤣
Only on Autopilot, which is ancient and now a POS compared to FSD(S). I drove from PA to VT and back (Cybertruck) and didn’t have to intervene except for pulling into parking spots and charger spots. No phantom braking in 600+ miles. That hasn’t been a thing on FSD for a long time.
3 months maybe, 6 months definitely
That's the thing Elon wish for all hw3 owner, no retrofitting at all, I'm on the same boat MYP 2023 🥲
Does this mean 10X less attempts at trying to get me t-boned daily?
Please show us any data or evidence that the sensors with hardware three are too low of resolution. We’d love to see it…
always has been
You clearly don't have a HW4 car.
Retrofit for free yes only to original owners, but they'll likely offer it for a fee as well at that time. There's something like 2.5 million potential retrofits but only 60k to 150k original hw3 owners with FSD purchased.
Ah, so you know this is releasing on the current hardware? Some people are legitimately ignorant, and I thought you might be one of them.
You *can* quantize a model to make it fit and run with fewer resources. It does start to lose fidelity below 8-bit quants, but maybe they're hoping it'll be good enough at whatever level they need (5-bit?) to fit on the hardware. But that takes a lot of time and compute power, so I suspect they wouldn't do it until after they have what they hope is a final or semi-final model.
Agreed. "It'll be better" seems like a pretty safe bet, but how much better is impossible to say.
We have so many potholes and rough roads, how will it handle these challenges
There's one consistent rule in AI scaling: the more data you feed it, the more capable it becomes. The increase in parameters essentially comes down to improving its ability to interpret situations on the road. And to clear up a common misconception, it's not always about brute-forcing more compute. As architectures improve, they can pull more performance from the same hardware.
RIP HW4
I bought FSD with the car. With the promise of updates. When do I get something, or do I have to start a lawsuit. I’m Canadian so, not really into suing.
I do, but I appreciate the explanation.
Love how he just fucking forgets people who spent 10k+ on hw3 and intel and are currently fucked
And to be fair to elon, I am very happy with my current hardware 3 Model 3 purchase. So, I'm not entirely upset that I'd have to purchase an AI4 car for unsupervised fsd. But since I love Tech i know the best thing to do long-term is to wait until an ai5 model 3 can be purchased.
They'd have to also do the cameras for that very reason.
For what reason?
Well..... To be fair FSD v13 today is waaaaaay more capable and better than version 12.3 from 18 months ago. We all know this to be true. So you can't act like it's just all buzzwords. It's okay to say you do t understand how the tech works and you're confused. There's no issue in not understanding certain things. Just keep asking questions and try to learn more about this industry.
The main reason is because the amount of data the HW4 cameras capture is waaaay better than the HW3 cameras. Many clips on YouTube show how much more clarity they add. Then you said it yourself..... It's good to have uniformity with the AI training and inference computer. Mixing it just doesn't make sense.
Not just you. The experience is actively frustrating now. All I want is no nags, no beeps, decent lane centering and TACC that goes the fucking speed I set unless there's actually a slow car ahead.
I understand all that. But you clearly don’t understand how meaningless of a statement it is without specific measurable data points. Musk might as well just write “10x faster!!!” Or “50% better”, and you’d all defend it as massive progress when it is a meaningless statement of general progress.
They want to get unsupervised FSD done before [upgrading HW3 vehicles](https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-updates-ai3-retrofit-plans-not-happening-until-fsd-unsupervised/)
So this currently says. It’s not illogical to also think that if they delay longer, the number of cars they have to retrofit will drop.
That's basically the plan. Push it off in hopes more and more people just upgrade their car instead then they have to do fewer retrofits because it's not going to be a drop in replacement like 3 was for 2
More than just "people upgrading their cars". My 2020 is already 6+ years old. It's going to be 10 by the time they are ready to come for it. More will be involved in accidents, written off, stolen, etc. by then.
Even if profits were up 500 percent they would still wait in the name of capitalism
And in place of a retrofit they will offer you a discount on a new Tesla equal to the pro-rated price you paid for FSD initially "because you have already been using it for so long already" and demand that you accept it as fair. I've seen this game and been around in capitalist America too long for me to think anything else will realistically happen.
And auto pilot.
You forgot the /s
😂😂😂
Ok, so imagine you are mopping a square room. You can get the center part very easily without a problem (driving down an unobstructed straight road, stopping at a stop sign, etc) As you get towards the walls of the room, it gets a little harder to get it 100% clean (following cones on a diverted road, etc). As you get into the corners, it gets even harder (recognizing another car is out of control and you need to divert). To get these edges entirely, you need ever more detailed brushes (a mop of a different kind, a toothbrush, a toothpick, etc) In the context of FSD, these ever more detailed brushes are picking at more and more of these edges. So more parameters \~= better handling of uncommon situations.
People are annoyed about 'phantom' wipes where if you go into a dark area suddenly, it will wipe the windshield. Auto-wipers actually got almost perfect a few versions ago in my car (the only 'bad' part is the phantom wipe). With that said, I know people are going to just bitch about "it should've just been a rain sensor like everyone else" which... very fair and right.
2025 Model 3. I just had it happen a few days ago. It wasn't anything crazy like people make it out to be like it slamming on the brakes or something. Or at least mine wasn't. It just pumped the brakes lightly a few times.
And good weather.
Nope. I use it in the rain all the time. It's great.
Meh, they upgraded people to 3.0. If they were killing it, they would come up with some sort of better deal on new cars for 3.0 people.
They will not do this deliberately as actual autonomous driving is worth trillions and every month delay costs billions. It's not a conspiracy. They can't make it work yet.
One could sacrifice part of the sub trunk in Model 3 for it. MY shoulder have enough space?
I'm not saying they are deliberately delaying autonomous driving. I'm saying they are delaying the retrofit required to make it work on legacy cars that were promised an upgrade if needed. The longer "they can't make it work yet", the more cars will be off the road and the pool they need to upgrade is depleted. If they wait another 5 years... How many 2020 Model 3's with FSD (like mine) will still be on the road/eligble to upgrade?
I'm selling mine when the R2 releases and I can get my hands on one.... by then though my Model 3 will be worth so little I may not trade it in and just wait for them to upgrade or buy me out of it with a settlement check....also out of spite.
They're already doing that actually. Every now and then for the last few years, their sales reps have called me and offered "free" transfer of FSD if I trade in my old car for a new one.
I’ve been hearing of breakthroughs for years, and the next amazing version, which is always slightly more capable yet still flawed.
Do you have HW4? The difference at least on HW4 between FSD today and FSD at the start of 2024 is absolutely gigantic. It's not just talk. The progress they made is real, it's massive, and it's continuing.
I don't even use Autosteer because it nags so much it is just not worth it. Much more interesting to me that Full Self Driving, that always annoys me by changing lanes, would be an Autosteer that isn't annoying.
My car will get this update in 36 weeks.
I had hw3 and saw these massive claims for 5 years
By “nags” he probably means when looking off at the screen. Or when wearing sunglasses since that reverts it to “hands on the wheel” mode.
I've had FSD disable itself with frantic "TAKE OVER IMMEDIATELY" messages in moderate rain, moderate snow and heavy fog.
I am guessing HW5 will be designed in such a way that it can be retrofitted into HW3 and 4. Much cheaper than retrofitting HW4 while 5 is being developed.
I've had that happen just a couple times but it's super rare. They just need to delete that like they did for the Robotaxi service. That way FSD remains on and the car will keep driving. But like I said, I use FSD in the rain all the time and that rarely happens anyway.
I've had far fewer instances where it reverts to that hands on the wheel mode in recent months, and I always wear sunglasses during the daytime. I understand HW3 is already being left behind and it's still only on V12, but it's pretty damn good at this point, far better than it was a year or two ago.
On FSD or on autopilot?
That’s good to know. I have HW2.5 with only AP.
> They just need to delete that like they did for the Robotaxi service. Yeah getting rid of the safety checks will totally fix a vision-only system in a low visibility environment.
As an tesla owner and shareholder, I like this solution.
Huh? The system doesn't need to shut down if it can drive well enough. Robotaxi works just fine in the rain with the shutdown code removed. The cameras can see in the rain, obviously.
EU Autopilot maybe isn’t so bad then. It does mostly that. With some nags.
I paid for the full FSD package hoping it would pay itself off as a robotaxi. I'm in Europe so I basically lost all hope at this point. Recently checked how much Tesla would pay for my car if I traded it in and it's literally less than 40% of the original value. So instead of making tons of money having a robotaxi, as Elon promised, I lost over 60% of the value. "Appreciating asset"...
> but means nothing without context. I see what you did there.
Going to start calling HW4 cars “CLANKERS” as soon as I upgrade to a HW5 MY
A tipsy driver using FSD will not crash from being drunk, neither will a tired or distracted driver
Monumental difference. I started with a 2017 S that had AP2 and have ridden that all the way to present with HW3 and FSDs 12. It’s good, but my wife’s 2021 Y with HW3 and the same FSD is better (plus no wheel nag), but neither are comparable to the smoothness and confidence of HW4 V13 on the truck and I hear 3/Y with HW4 are even better, so, yeah, unfortunately Autopilot has been left for dead :-/
Sadly you’ll probably have to join a class action to get anything done. Tesla does not care about HW3 and would rather you trade in and upgrade than continue to have a customer ask when their car is going to get modernized. Source: Former Tesla employee, HW3 is dead in the water
Yes
Yeah, but are they really?
Are they really what?
Are they really working on fixing the issue, or just saying they are and letting time go by until everyone forgets, like usual.
What issue? There's no issue referred to here.
Issue in reference to the upgrade they are working to fix the current "issues". Basically a patch fix from the current version to fix the "issues" they are experiencing in the current version.
What? There will never be a time when the mistake rate is zero mistakes per trillion miles. It will always be above zero. What matters is reducing the mistake rate to an extremely low level, and every major FSD update substantially reduces the mistake rate. This upcoming one will do the same and progress it further.
Exactly, so they are fixing at least one "Issue" they have recognized, how does this not make sense? If you are upgrading software, you are fixing a recognized "Issues". If everything is perfect, you don't need to release new software because there are no "Issues". Software upgrades are literally fixing recognized "Issues". This may be a full upgrade, because they recognized there is an issue with the old software. Or, they see that the existing software is insufficient and issues need to be remedied. Literally, software upgrades are the definition of fixing issues.
Ya, Musk screwed the pooch here. Tesla should allow full refund for HW3 FSD users.
Nope, that's not how artificial neural networks work. The software engineers don't simply fix a specific issue. They make the network as a whole more intelligent, which generally improves all parts of driving. That pushes the mistake rate down. So no, there's not a specific issue that they're trying to fix here. They're just generally making it better. You also seemed to imply that they only talk about making it better but never actually do it. That is false. Each major update makes it drastically better, and this is the next one to do so.
Why would they spend more money on better cameras when the old ones are enough? Elon made directional lights a button to save a dollar. Or he removed ultra sonic sensors because he said he doesnt need them to save a few bucks. And you are saying he is paying bucks for better cameras he doesnt need? Fanboism on your side.
Refund plus interest!
Enough is defined as safer than human. Tesla will continually upgrade chips and sensors to increase safety even beyond enough and smoothness beyond that. Thanks for confirming. I was pretty sure you had no data or evidence to back up your theory.
I refuse to believe that someone in Europe actually bought a car with FSD, hoping to make money of it using it as a Robotaxi.
It’s very difficult to predict technological progress. The prevailing wisdom back in 2017 was that the classical ML style system could scale to FSD. Turns out it couldn’t. That sucks for all involved. We are now on a completely new AI architecture and tech stack, which does seem to scale with more parameters, more compute, and more training. So ya know, people can be skeptical like before, but there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic this time around. Given the real world performance and speed of improvements we are actually seeing (vs predicting) it actually seems quite ridiculous to be so cynical. This is not wisdom of the crowd, this is herd behavior and emotional contagion.
All else being equal a 10x parameter count will likely half the intervention rate.
Huh? It was not me? You seem confused. You even confirmed out point. They ade upgrading cameras because the old ones are too bad. Which means no FSD with the old cameras, eh?
I’ve noticed I can drive from home to work and I never get nagged. My attention is on the road but I don’t have to apply any real force to the wheel like I used to.
You get nothing other than the valuable lesson to stop buying things on future promises.
I’ve already noted a significant decrease in nagging since a year or so ago. (I don’t remember which update that was.) There are still certain roads and situations in which I don’t fully trust it though.
im sure I heard this in 2019
Why? There was no mention of HW3... not saying you're wrong, just wondering where this supposition comes from.
It was claimed in an earnings call. I’d struggle to call that an announcement. I suspect their strategy is to just drag it out and never claim FSD is “done” while the old models die out.
I mean, call it whatever you want. Elon is on record saying HW3 will be upgraded. Nothing is ever set in stone, so maybe that gets walked back later. I can't see the future. I honestly think it is a moot point as both of us have stated: the number of HW3 cars with FSD will probably be pretty small by the time FSD is fully and legally unsupervised.
> They want to ~~get unsupervised FSD done before upgrading HW3 vehicles~~ never pay any money upgrading old cars. Fixed.
Let me see what HW owners with FSD will say. 😂
I would wait at least 6 months to buy. Musk is a promoter. I don’t trust him. It probably will be better just not when initially released.
They upgraded HW2.5 card to HW3..
As an owner of 3 HW3 vehicles with FSD, I’m there with you brother
I hate to say it, but it was pretty clear Elon was full of shit by the time he started talking robotaxi. It's best to assume his timelines are way off.
i did a demo drive of a model 3 last weekend and it did 5 separate phantom wipes throughout the hour… it was a cloudy, but dry day. they really should just use a rain sensor like everyone else…
Doesn't happen in my HW4. Thousands of miles of FSD, and it's amazing.
Thank the us federal government for all that, not tesla
Feels like 2020.
It’s probably already quantized like crazy just to run on HW4
I think the issue is that going to HW4 requires a full camera retrofit, not just a backwards compatible board. So it’d be a pretty expensive retrofit versus going from hw 2.5 to hw 3 or the very few cars that did hw 2 to hw 3
They need two more cameras for sure on either side of the front bumper pointing 90 degrees left and right of the car. That's an obvious next step.
Looking forward to the new release. It will always be “Supervised” to appease the regulators. Drive on FSD 99% of the time and love it!
Why can’t it be, “today we celebrate a great achievement that has open source testing and verified abilities, ect” instead of “x amount of time from now we will achieve x (but obviously there absolutely no accountability to me making these claims)?
I don’t really care all the “terms” he uses. 10x?4x?2x higher parameter? Is “2X” better than “10X”? As long as it good I am happy.
There must be tens of them!
They're waiting out the HW3 vehicles to get aged out/traded in. "Soon" means when there's none left on the road.
I bought a 2023 model 3 and took delivery on christmas eve. The deals and tax incentives were amazing and I celebrate my good fortune every day when I drive this amazing car. Dont care that much about FSD.
Got a Hw3 loaner the other day, FSD was fine. I didn’t see major issues w it comparing to my HW4!
I'm in a similar boat. I would have loved to get the refresh, but it would have been an extra $11k between losing the tax credit, inventory discounts, and sales tax. Even if you do want FSD, it's still really good on that car too even if it doesn't have the latest.
Good to know!
Dreading the release of hw5. I’m not 4
And my axe too, brother.
With interest. The current prejudgement rate for the $3k initial FSD purchase in 2018 would work out to about $10k.
So when we buy Supervised FSD does that mean when it becomes Unsupervised, we won’t get the update?
Are the newest cars Tesla sells right now hw4?
Yes
They are just waiting for our cars to die. That's all.
I honestly would prefer that they give me a full FSD transfer for free with a small discount on a new car than for them to retrofit my Model Y. Contingent on pricing, of course.
He is using those terms instead of concrete statements ie: [25% reduction in disengagements per 1000 miles traveled] because he has no idea how it will actually perform.
He is saying that it is going to be better and nag you less. That is tangible information but you have to think on your own how much better you think that that means that it is going to be
They have to put a stronger processor in the car to be able to make the car drive better that is strictly the physical reality
I'm confused on how you think you would win that lawsuit? They never promised you anything outside of a working car upon delivery lol. Typical canuck.
Elon made several promises. The website made promises. I'm not sure what the typical canuck part even means? we aren't very litigious
Still did not get it. Nothing concrete how he wants to improve the miserable sales situation. He will not be able to decide alone whether he can have the cars drive autonomously. And I have not seen any clear progress on official documents - rather the opposite. On all official documents you meanwhile read disclaimers while he keeps saying something else on unofficial channels. At the same time his whole board is also selling stocks while he tells everybody to hold.
Does anyone expect their 4 year old laptop gets free CPU upgrade from the manufacturer to the latest? Let’s be realistic 😉
Easy solution is to just delay unsupervised until it’s just a few psychos left like me that need a 3 month long retrofit
Not if you’re also quantizing weights. Or if you’re swapping to a mixture of experts (some kind of compute-efficient routing) or any other myriad of modern ML techniques that would allow you to say “10x params” while meaning drastically different things.
If they’re quantizing, it could be worse. 1.58 bit models have been around for over a year now. You’d use less compute for the same amount of memory (depending on HW support)
When it's finally released, I have a feeling we'll get another free month of FSD. I got three last year.
what year in your car it shouldn't lose that much value
Picked it up in December 2021.
Do you really compare a 1k laptop that is supposed to last 3 to 5 years with a 40k car that is supposed to last 10+ years?
My model 3 is a great car and FSD 12 is a very capable SW. I have no doubt I will continue to enjoy driving the car for a long time. I have no illusions of getting free upgrade of HW. The reality of technology improvements is based on people paying for new toys 😉
there's talk about hardware four for people who have paid for the fsd u get free or if you pay monthly you have to pay for the upgrade. It's not very much though.
I refuse to believe in Jesus, yet he is real, nuff said.
Stupid Comparison
i would just like to be able to re-arrange my list of favorites in navigation. it’s crazy that you can’t do that.
So, was it released?
Only stupid expects free HW3 upgrade 😉
You should just have bought tesla stock... and some beater car. Car is NEVER an appreciating asset
My point was that Elon's false marketing has convinced me that it was an appreciating asset. I don't know where you're from, but here in EU we have strong customer protection laws, and I'm pretty sure Tesla has broken the law with the false marketing.
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