Credit video on X https://x.com/terrapinterpene/status/1932428149364596772?s=46&t=Mj3Wz0ulX1Eu1u4P8DTbQg
siiick the future is now
And so it begins... the rise of the machines.
Wild that they’re doing this without safety drivers.
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White one had a driver? Pfft, old technology
they have remote monitoring / operations just like Waymo, etc
They have been doing it WITH drivers for a while already. Seems to have passed that
Yeah I know I’m one of those drivers lol. It’s not ready for driverless yet. Unless maybe they’re using some new secret internal build not available to the rest of the fleet. Edit: I’m one of those drivers as in my car has FSD. I don’t work for Tesla.
What are the main reasons you wouldn’t consider it ready based on your experience?
Unless you work for Tesla, yes this is using a significantly different version than what’s on consumer cars.
This is awesome to see. It was a long time coming, but we're finally here. As Elon Musk says, "We specialize in making the impossible merely late." In this case very late, but still here.
Oh interesting, I thought they would reuse some of the older models as their Taxi fleet instead.
The future was 10 years ago in Phoenix and San Francisco when Waymo started doing this.
Not consumer testing. they had employees testing it with a newer FSD version
Generation Beta be like, what?!! People used to have to drive themselves from point A to point B? Like how?
remote operator can’t be fast enough to respond split second. First, signal strength vary and few frames are often dropped (try playing FPS in backseat if the car - it’s not very stable) Second, since remote operator don’t feel a thing, its reaction time is often slower. So you can’t really rely on remote operators, only if the car is stuck. Most of the drive it has to by itself and it can’t do anything dangerous
what do you mean? Are you employed by Tesla as safety driver? If so, could you tell us a bit more about your experience? Or do you mean you have bought FSD? In that case yeah, they are probably using new major version that isn’t out for public and is optimized for robotaxi in Austin
Have you even been on this subreddit for more than a day? Or the FSD one? There’s so many videos showing why it’s not ready.
“How did people play on their phones?” *serious face* You don’t wanna know.
Hellooooooooo NDA
But-but I thought Tesla could never do autonomous driving with vision only?!?!
It struggles with how to handle shadows from power lines and things that look like lane markers ex: tram rails used for streetcars. Funny enough FSD actually does better at night since it doesn’t have to deal with sun glare or shadows.
Why do you say that? There's a guy I watch who runs uber drives in a hardware 4 Model 3. He hits the button on the screen at he start of the ride and then disengages when they pull to a stop at the destination. I've seen a situation in one or two videos where he had to apply the accelerator to make it get moving as it was too slow in deciding to take a turn. But I've never seen him apply the breaks or have to jerk the steering wheel. Edit: Weird how many people read your post wrong.
It began years ago with Waymo but welcome to the party.
And lagging behind other companies that did it already lol. Pretty cool.
The crow-eating begins... But of course, they'll just try to move the goalposts. Good thing reality doesn't care.
> It struggles with how to handle shadows and things that look like lane markers ex: tram rails used for streetcars. Austin doesn't have those though.
To be fair, the sheer amount of work they've been putting into Austin specifically makes me more skeptical of their ability to scale than I was in the past. I'm still definitely on the side that they'll do quite well and I'm very excited to see what comes but I am not yet confident of their ability to scale faster than waymo.
> And lagging behind other companies that did it already lol. Only one, Waymo, and their solution doesn't scale.
They've been testing a lot on Austin because that's their first deployment location, but there's no evidence that they've done anything to make it work better in Austin than other places. Though of course, some amount of skepticism is warranted until they demonstrate their ability to scale up from here. At the very least, they've done what Waymo did, which was making a robotaxi service work in a city. Many people said Tesla would never be able to do this, due to just using vision or whatever other dumb reasons. They are now eating crow. It was always clear that their arguments were dumb and vision-only is obviously possible, but now it's being proven.
no no waymo is different. waymo is hard coded. FSD is end to end AI. First time we let an AI loose in our physical environment. edit: sounds concerning if i read it to myself.
Other companies: $150k+ per autonomous car Tesla: $40k per autonomous car
How is this good for society actually? Taking away peoples jobs for what? So private companies can make more profit?
It’s still a glaring problem though if something that looks like a lane can cause FSD to follow that instead of the actual lane.
Some additional technical context: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1932498657632530727?s=46
Car following is almost certainly acting as the safety backup
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Offering low cost widely available mobility to the masses? Who does that help? How did you feel about bulldozers taking all those good shoveling jobs?
But can you do it with $8 cameras?
laymo
I don't think you understand the tech. You should ask an LLM if you're correct in thinking Waymo is "hardcoded"
3,700 deaths per day in auto accidents. Human error causes about 94% of car accidents. Blind, Disabled, old, poor are able to travel now with costs being significantly less than Uber or cabs.
Ah yes, they're stuck at $150k+ cost per vehicle. If only over time and more advancements in the tech, they could somehow get the costs down like they already have.. what a crazy concept.
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> But-but I thought Tesla could never do autonomous driving with vision only?!?! On a nice clear day, sure. Now try it in the rain / fog... Tesla is never going to achieve L5 autonomy on vision only. I say this as a '24 MYP owner
I’m not arguing the jobs point, but idk where you got low cost or widely available from. We have no idea about pricing and I guarantee we won’t see this as widely available for years.
What makes you think this will be low cost?
They can't even get my wipers to work properly. I have no doubt FSD will be great in California and Texas where it never rains and the weather is great all the time, but there are physical issues (snow and slush buildup) that their current solution can't deal with. I think vision-only FSD is possible, but I don't think their current vehicle lineup can do it.
As long as it doesn't mate with a Ukrainian drone we'll be ok.
Rain/fog will hurt lidar based cars more than vision only (note: radar would help though). Speaking as an FSD user, the major issue I often see is when the sun is low enough to blind the cameras.
A few months? So like 2028?
What’s good for society is safety on the roads. If statistically Tesla’s self driving cars are safer than the average human then for that reason alone it will be a benefit to society. Less accidents and most importantly less deaths.
That's kind of the point, offering low-cost point-to-point transit with no emissions. The car has a fixed cost not so different from a human salary for a year, plus operating costs per mile on the order of pennies. Equivalent service with a human driving the same vehicle includes all the same costs plus whatever overhead the driver requires to, you know, live.
In the long run, I just can't see how this will work, they are not going to be used in the Jetsins Orbit city. Kids will tag them at traffic lights, same interiors, yup I know they have your details but you or someone with you can do $5k of damage & they only hold a debit card with nil cash on it. The issue in doen town LA was also Google's speed in giving up the camera images to identify protesters. People are not going to be happy, or people with something to hide, with being constantly monitored by self driving cars cruising the streets
Kids, too. The virtual key could allow only a designated chaperone at the destination to open the vehicle.
That’s not the argument you think it is, hardware is a fixed cost and is a non-factor in any vehicle that is doing hundreds of trips per day. During the life of the product, the margin will not be materially impacted by the cost difference in this hardware. The only thing that matters is scale
Is this using the same hardware as a normal consumer available Model Y?
Elon has already said they'll remove problematic spots from its allowable route.
Clowns have been doing this for years. Miles without intervention stats tell the real difference between technologies.
It's crazy, my commute is about 40km, since 13.2.9 has been installed, it drives 100% from office to home without any interventions. People don't realize how good FSD has become. It's insane
For those who don't know, one Elon month equals a hundred dog years.
few months = 6 months - 1 year 1 year is usually multiple years
Just the fact you can buy it as a normal car. And soon you'll be able to send it wherever you want with your phone. It's so much more than Waymo.
A few months sounds a lot like “3 months maybe, 6 months definitely” to me. That one was 3.75 years from tweet til the first beta launch of FSD.
So thousands of people no longer die in car accidents every year? Because the average human is a shitty driver.
We should hire people to plug in superchargers for you too. Think of all the jobs!
You can't use an equals sign and "-" meaning "to" instead of "minus" in one line. I was confused about what "negative 6 months" mean
And now Waymo’s are everywhere! Oh wait, they’re not? What happened?
Being followed closely by a tech vehicle if I had to guess.
Economies of scale? The same way that bulldozers are cheaper than 100 people with shovels...
cheaper than existing taxis?
yea its gonna be totally hands off youre right
Yes... The most expensive thing in the car is the driver....
is this your first introduction to private companies? You think Tesla will make no profit? thats cute. Waymo is more expensive than Lyft
Yes
The word soon has carried a lot in the past 17 years...
You don't understand how they can make more money and it will also be cheaper by removing the most expensive piece of the puzzle? Waymo hasn't hit the economics of scale...
Dont care
Gotta love reddit.
I guess they are “lagging behind”
Over/under on first fatal accident of one of these things? We know it’s coming.
Shouldn't be turning across oncoming traffic while there are pedestrians in the crossing. Dangerous vehicle behavior, gonna get the passenger T-boned.
I did Google, just to be sure, and no, no one else offers driverless Taxis in the US. If you say otherwise then you need to provide sources. If you mean companies in early testing, then there's plenty I already knew about, like Cruise, but those aren't going anywhere. > And back up your claim that Waymo, owned by Alphabet, can't scale it? They've already scaled and continue to lol. Look at the very small area of the cities they operate in first off (geofencing), how they almost never take left turns, and how few cities they operate in. It's not a generalized solution to self driving and everyone knows that. They also almost never use highways.
The US DoD has been testing this with drones for quite a while lol
GOAT
There’s no right to privacy in public
Why's it starting the left turn on an unprotected left while people are crossing, blocking traffic at the same time?
And "soon" = 10+ years
Competitive environments with other options Is this your first experience with competing private companies?
Is there more reliable information I can read about the comparison?
These things are going to print so much money that the odd scrubbing and/or repainting due to "tagging" will be a rounding error on the income statement. Also, the world is more than San Francisco, LA and New York. Vandalism is not an issue where I live.
No one said a few months *in a row*
How is this even remotely comparable
That is cool
Why does a 42” flat screen tv cost $150 … … and does not still cost $35,000 like it did originally?
Economics of making a profit while lower costs to the consumer. How can you not see it? How do you think companies work when they have to compete?
It’s not about when it works properly, it’s about when it doesn’t
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3joLwg-VKIE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3joLwg-VKIE)
Same car, newer FSD version.
50K minus $7.5
4x more parameters is huge. Good stuff.
You’re right! I’ve been saying this for months. Idk how but with FSD enabled, my drive feels like 1/3 the time! Probably because of how relaxing it is to sit back and monitor instead of actively making decisions. It’s so peaceful, I actually look forward to my commute now lol
Absolutely bonkers. Just an hour ago it drove me 30 minutes to a restaurant perfectly smoothly without me doing a thing. And to think this new software is based on a pre-trained model that's several months newer... Things are gonna get crazy.
It’s only the beginning of something that will change the way we get around. If this goes well, car ownership will go down, ride share has a huge widely untapped market ahead. Scale is the key
Waymo doesn't sell cars you can buy. They also rely on scanning cities and their cars cost six figures. This is vastly better. Not to take anything away from Waymo. What they've done is obviously amazing and a technical feat. This is just the next level.
Screamingmonkey is wrong, so no there is no reliable information to support that.
And in the 52 minutes since you wrote your comment, dozens of people have died at the hands of human drivers.
I bet the first time it happens, it’ll be the human driver’s fault, not the Tesla running FSD. And the occupants of the Tesla will be unharmed because of the 5 star NHTSA rating. My car has already prevented a couple accidents already in the last year running FSD, these AI driven safety features are no joke
That explains “the wall” that Mexico paid for in 2017, it should be built in 2+ years then, Trump/Musk/God willing.
The fixed cost is literally the majority of the cost. What are you talking about? The marginal cost is smaller. Cut the fixed cost by 80% and you can offer a service that's drastically cheaper.
I love the FSD (supervised) on my 2026 Y but I would not trust it on its own. I've had to correct it many times and some were times it was very close to getting into an accident if I had not intervened. I hope it's not just regular FSD in these robotaxis and it has some extra upgraded software/hardware at least.
all this is true with Waymo as well. my guess is that it will be constrained to certain speeds, in extra chill / cautious mode. FSD already works pretty well overall, I don’t think anyone is gonna die here but we’ll see!
I love my 2026 Y but I wouldn't trust it to drive without me supervising....yet. It still makes some critical errors that I have to correct.
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Fatalities in 3, 2, 1...
The entire point is that FSD isn’t using mapped streets.
Yes and the other companies have a huge and expensive spinning LiDAR rig on top. Idk about you guys but I don’t really want a giant spinning hat on my personal vehicle
So let's not talk about it until it is at least on par with human driver deaths? Or what is your point exactly?
Scrolling through reels while driving makes the drive so much faster
My point is why complain about something that's saving lives.
Love it
So, still supervised, basically.
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Reddit once again manages to rediscover that Tesla took the approach of starting from low cost and iterating on self driving on that, while Waymo took the approach of building self driving at greater cost and then is iterating on price. Well done everyone, that has been their respective strategies for years! Yes, comparing on just one axis and ignoring the other can make either company look further ahead. The reality is that each intentionally sacrificed one for the other up front, and they are attempting to converge.
According to Elon, yes - https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1932490521681055952
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There is a map and there is a map. FSD works by feeding in training data from a lot of drivers and rely on the computer to generalize. But the closer your test is to the training data, the better you will perform, and if they grab a ton of training data from Austin, they will do better in Austin.
I think people greatly over estimate how much data the cars send to Tesla.
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They’re probably always going to be remotely supervised to some extent, in the same way that Waymos are. You might one day have one operator for 100 autonomous cars, but I think we should always expect there to exist some kind of remote human dispatch/operator/supervisor for any autonomous vehicles for the foreseeable future.
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It’s not weird how many people read his post wrong. It’s a response to how it was written. My first thought is that he’s a driver for Tesla; then, after reading the second sentence I knew he meant he just has a Tesla w/ FSD. Then it was confirmed by his edit. Also, of course they’re using a “secret internal build” not available to us. How do you think the car drives without a driver in the seat? Different software build.
So...when do we get this in Canada...hopefully in time for winter...oh wait...paid 3 times for FSD and I still don't have it...without Lidar Radar/Sonar combo of some sort it will never work in less than perfect weather. Give me my money back please.
I'm not even sure this is worth correcting. You're a bit far beyond lost. Here's a tip, don't pretend you've ever understood anything about economics while arguing online if you never did.
I look around and ask this every day as my car drives me around.
Please explain how I'm wrong. The fixed $100,000+ cost of the car amortized over the lifetime of the car is more $ per mile than the cost of electricity and other marginal costs to operate the car. Even if the car lasts 200,000 miles, that's still at least $0.50 per mile just from the fixed cost of the car itself. At $0.20 per kWh with a 300 Wh per mile car, the cost of electricity is less than $0.07 per mile. $0.50 is far greater than $0.07. The fixed cost is obviously the majority of the cost here.
And, when they get stuck, the human remote operator can "take over" and drive using the keyboard arrows.
If you could kindly quote where I said Waymo could not iterate on cost, then I will happily retract my statement. Otherwise, we were both simply pointing out where each company has "lagged" behind, no?
Use mine all the time. Still not good in parking garages and shopping malls parking lots.
So basically AI = Actual Indians. Got it.
In China, there's a bunch of cars with FSD-like functions provided without subscription. In locales where there's HD mapping -- which are just cities where another car with lidar, HD cameras, or radar have pre-mapped every inch of that locale -- it works great. In locales where that hasn't been done, it struggles. I assume in order to do the Robotaxi business, Tesla would need some form of HD mapping in applicable service areas. Maybe that's why they bought a bunch of lidar a while back? "for validation testing"
The software driving technology is similar. The input is different. Waymo relies on a suite of sensors. Tesla relies just on computer vision.
Wish I could say the same. My FSD Model 3 slammed the brakes while on the highway (slow lane, furthest to the right) because it thought traffic on the feeder was a merge lane. That took me from 68 to 40 mph in the blink of an eye. FSD nearly caused a collision with the inattentive driver behind me.
This is amazing if it works as well as Waymo. We'll see...
Can’t tell for sure, but it looks like it started its turn BEFORE those pedestrians were in the crosswalk.
$40K plus $8K. FSD isn’t free.
Accurate. Plus, the data needs to be sorted and labeled. The last thing you want is training data from the worst drivers going wide. Then, there's storage needed by Tesla. So, the actual data uploaded is generally a small amount. I've tracked the uploads via using wifi, and it's minimal.
I believe you're talking about the navigational maps. Those are different than what GM or Waymo use, which is high resolution, lidar mapped data. Tesla relies on the nav data for guidance, not for the road handling/ego.
True, v13.2 isn't very good in parking lots yet. But outside of that it's absolutely incredible.
Being able to drive to and from your work is what it should be doing. But it has to be able to do it 99.9999% of the time in various driving conditions and other variables. This is why anecdotal evidence is isn't important when talking about fsd. It's all about the data. And do far it seems that tesla is not interested in releasing any fsd data. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has the authority to compel manufacturers to submit data under Title 49 of the U.S. Code, particularly: 49 U.S. Code § 30166 – Inspections, investigations, and records. This includes crash data, safety testing, disengagement logs, etc. If Tesla wants to deploy or scale FSD broadly, NHTSA may request detailed internal data for validation of safety claims. I dont see tesla submitting that information willingly.
I am equally hyped but it will take 100% more effort to get to the situation where the steering wheel is removed.
$49,992.50 nice!
Burn it
Uh, it absolutely is free to Tesla haha. They can add FSD without costing themselves a dime.
Its already happened. 2 FSD related deaths and 52 Autopilot related. Please use the systems safely, everyone. Don't get complacent. Remain attentive. My FSD/AP has made some funky moves over the past 7 years and would have crashed multiple times if I hadn't overridden.
Not really. Supervised means that you can immediately take over.
I think different cars have different driving style to certain level. Tesla has never admitted that. Factory reset that we have access to doesnt reset it to aboslute its life cycle.......
Need effort to understand the data. And need more effort for people at NHTSA to understand data. This tranparency is theratically good, but likely will be abused for different purpose.
That would be the latest and greatest, HW4...
Even with a human (your wife? or husband) driving your car, sometimes you just cannot take a peaceful nap even you are so tired? FSD is the same if not better LoL.
68 to 40mph is a change of about 12.5m/s. If you're paying attention and actively monitoring you can easily react to the car applying the brakes in under half a second, pressing the throttle slightly to cancel the automatic braking. If you had no time to react, you're claiming that the car decelerated at 2.7G? Even being overly generous and saying you needed 1 second to react, 1.3G of deceleration is still near the limits of what an average car will do. My MY still phantom brakes from time to time, it's annoying as hell, but I'm in the UK and the version of FSD we get here is the old version. I can normally catch it within a few mph when it does brake. Maybe dropping from 55mph to 50mph before I stop it. I've even gotten quite adept at applying the right amount of throttle to smoothly take over. I find it hard to believe that someone can go from 68mph to 40mph if they were paying attention.
Who cares when it is. It'll be when it'll be.
This is for the next software update. Not for what robotaxis begin.
Supervised means someone in the driver's seat, paying attention to the road. There is no one in that driver seat. That is level 4. Same as Waymo.
They will use a game controller.
The NHTSA are a bunch of bureaucrats that have no idea how the programming works. Submitting the data to them is a wasted exercise. My proof comes in my driving my car without having to intervene.
This is why only people with 99-100 safety scores were allowed into the beta
Not for long.
no different from your typical Austin driver
I understand. In regards to the few months the tweet says: > We have a more advanced model in alpha stage that has ~4X the params, but still requires a lot of polishing. > That’s probably ready for deploy in a few months The next software update is something different and will likely occur much before the alpha model is ready.
My wind shield wipers are still in beta.
The new model Y is a taxi huh. Ok, that's not very desirable.
For a few weeks.
So we're limiting our scope to the US, now? Because last time I checked, the future of AI isn't just limited in scope to progress made by American companies. But sure, Waymo in the US. Waymo is already testing on highways (Phoenix to Tucson) so don't present it like the tech is incapable. And are you saying Waymo, with the added lidar/radar sensors and cameras, will never be a generalized solution to self driving but Tesla's camera only system will? I think you're chugging the "neural net" kool-aid. It still hasn't proven itself to be the long term solution for self driving with the nearly infinite amount of edge cases awaiting. We shall see...
Titan sub style
Of course the first clip is it blocking the other directions lane by starting an unprotected left turn with pedestrians crossing the street
You’re on the right track. The key difference is that Tesla is trying to drive like a human, while Waymo is trying to be a perfect driver. This philosophical divide results in major differences in their driving algorithms. Of course, both use AI in their development—just in very different ways. One interesting comparison is their DFMEA (Design Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) approaches. Waymo’s is much more structured and rule-based, while Tesla’s is heavily driven by real-world fleet data and machine learning. And to give credit where it’s due (yes, even for the Tesla skeptics): Waymo is smart and often performs better in controlled driving scenarios, especially in geofenced areas where it’s finely tuned.
Hard to trust some rando on Reddit
Make sure all your cameras are clean.
HW3 or AI4?
That’s so cool!
Waymo actually does this already 😂
Would you seat in the back seat and still let it drive with no one in driver seat? That’s the question passengers of Robotaxi would be asking.
Waymo’s cost $200k and I don’t think they have plans to sell them. Teslas cost $40K and anyone can buy them and run a ride hailing fleet.
With someone, remote control, controlling it in the tailing vehicle
You are more likely to get caught tagging a driverless Tesla than a normal car, with all the cameras constantly recording.
That is something that needs to be fixed
Incredible! Truly revolutionary!
Don’t deploy these in LA.
> Also, of course they’re using a “secret internal build” not available to us. How do you think the car drives without a driver in the seat? Different software build. That's not a different AI model though. And I'm pretty sure you can enable doing exactly that already in existing functionality with factory mode. Tesla has been doing it at their factories, even in Germany, for moving their vehicles out of end of production and into the lots for months now.
Bro your tesla is not sentient.
Curious about Austin/Tesla/Hipster/Self-driving mashup. Self-Driving will mostly be servicing young kids in the city area (and drunk parents after events), right? Are the hipsters in Austin as left as say, California? Do they still like Elon, or do they seem him as a right-wing lunatic/threat like most of reddit and left-wing Californians, for example? Is it a dislike, or is it a hate? Have Tesla's been vandalized down there at all over the past few months? Seeing the Wamo's getting burned-down in California in these 'riots' ... And knowing that hipster protesters hate elon/tesla, is it a risk that the self-driving tesla's in Austin will burn?
Hopefully the spacebar is the throttle and it’s on or off. Smooooooooth
Oh you’re right… I forgot about the factory drives.
I'm just wonder what about this turn was just fine? It should not have started the turn with people crossing. It can't complete the turn and is now at risk of being hit by a car coming in the opposite direction.
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Feels like there should be some regulation making it obvious when a car is driverless. In Australia you have to put up "P plates" for the first few years after getting your full license so other drivers know you're a noob and might behave differently then a seasoned driver. It's insane that a non human intelligence can be driving some cars with tinted windows and you have no idea.
One sample is not representative of general use cases.
What do the current autonomous vehicles in Australia do now?
Exponentially more from human drivers
Especially when there is different hardware versions and software versions. We are discussing the newest hardware on the newest software, and it is super common for some random person gives his anecdotal story about his situation from who knows how many months or years ago but conveniently doesn't disclose that they were on hardware 3 using a much older version of either autopilot or FSD which doesn't have the same capabilities.
We don't have autonomous vehicle here at this point, but I think they will be marked in some way, we're pretty strict with anything related to public safety. Even if autonomous cars become as safe as humans, it's still useful to other drivers to know if another car has no driver...
I’m sure they be set on fire by the weekend not the time for a roll out but at least there’s cameras streaming to catch the rioters
Oh. Looking forward to when modern technology reaches your shores. You'll have plenty of time to plan your regulations before then.
> So we're limiting our scope to the US, now? Well yeah because traffic laws and self-driving regulations are local. Yeah there is some random Chinese companies but their traffic laws as well as public safety laws are incredibly lax. The fact that there are some random companies on the roads says nothing to if it's better or worse than Tesla. And there aren't anything other than Chinese companies. > Waymo is already testing on highways (Phoenix to Tucson) so don't present it like the tech is incapable. First I've heard of that, but I'll wait until it comes out to say they're ahead in that respect. Have they done any testing without safety drivers inside the cars? Tesla has also been "testing on highways" with millions of users daily. > I think you're chugging the "neural net" kool-aid. Waymo uses neural nets. > It still hasn't proven itself to be the long term solution for self driving with the nearly infinite amount of edge cases awaiting. Humans aren't too great at edge cases either.
I think a PSA to all pedestrians would be in order.
That’s fine? It is their first attempt after all.
Not saying that Tesla drive assist is bad, but that‘s the difference between level 4 and level 2. In level 2, you sit there and if after 2 years there is a case when you have to intervene, there is no accident.
HW3, you know, the version that Elon insisted was what was capable of full self driving. Don't get me wrong. My 2018 model 3's full self driving is more capable than I ever thought it would be. But it's not the robo taxi that Elon has been promising for about as long as I've had it.
Tbh I've just want to get to the point of being able to have a few and have my car take me home legally
17 years ago the only Tesla you could buy was a Roadster. Crazy how far we’ve come since then.
I'll never get this one. The video game controller is like the least egregious thing they did. The military uses Xbox controllers too. It's a good control interface that people are used to.
Haha mine work ok but yeah I sometimes press the dumb button
Same, really satisfied with it even on mountain roads. I could use more offset to the right when motorcycles turn into me in the opposite lane and I have encountered the rubber on the road glitch once, but that was at night and on 13.2.8 and literally the only major bug I have encountered personally.
There is a rule in software development called the [Ninety–ninety rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety%E2%80%93ninety_rule) > The first 90 percent of the code accounts for the first 90 percent of the development time. The remaining 10 percent of the code accounts for the other 90 percent of the development time.
Exactly. Game hardware companies spent decades making their controllers better and better. Why not take advantage of that, especially when it's only like $40 and you can replace them easily without having to create your own controller from scratch. It's a no-brainer. But I think it'll make more sense for the Tesla remote operator to use a sim racing setup instead of a handheld game controller. That way there will not be much training needed as it'll just be like driving a regular car.
Yeah agreed. People already know how to drive cars so they would probably use a sim for the same reasons the military uses controllers.
It’s still creeping while people are crossing. It needs to be completely stopped until pedestrians clear the road.
If the count of jobs was the single metric you are optimising for then we ought to be digging quarries with spoons and sowing entire fields by hand
I highly doubt FSD uses an LLM, it's just computer vision
That's not how remote operators work, by the way. All they do is give the car a target and the car goes there, then proceeds. That's how it works for Waymo and that's how I presume it will work for Tesla, too. No one is manually driving the car remotely.
I hope they do a subscription service for it one day because that would pretty much end the idea of car ownership for me.
My guy watching over someone or something to make sure it’s done correctly is the very literal definition of the word supervised lol.
yeah damn those params are really going up ~4x, that's incredible!! elon is such a gaslighter. i think we should bring back the R word, but just for him
Huh? What's your problem? Parameter count is an extremely important factor in neural network architecture. It's basically the capacity for intelligence. Increasing training increases the intelligence of the network, but only asymptotically towards the capacity. So increasing the capacity is a big deal, and 4x is a very meaningful increase.
Tesla is practically admitting FSD is not safe enough by not taking the liability of accidents it causes ... Robotaxi, if it ever expands like Waymo, will finally be the answer to that. Tesla assumes the liability of any accidents that Robotaxis commit. I'm curious how it will go.
I feel this way as well with my HW3 car and my commute.
Waymo integrates machine learning and hard-coded rules for safety and compliance, while Tesla’s FSD minimizes hard-coding, relying on neural nets for most decisions. This makes Tesla’s system more adaptive but potentially less predictable in unique scenarios.
Crazy to think model Ys will become standard taxi car one day
Yes [here.](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/tesla-vs-waymo-tale-two-self-driving-dreams-why-i-still-torres-r00ac?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&utm_campaign=share_via)
Driving well!
Depends who you are hiring. More young people can probably drive a car with a controller than can use a steering wheel and peddles.
So waymo is supervised
I still don’t know how it will deal with torrential rain or bad weather. If it’s only a camera based system? My FSD often tells me to take over if the roads are bad.
Even if it's 99.9999% perfect, that will always be the counterpoint. The irony is it's a factor in human driving too. Thus, the metric to look at is collisions per X miles.
Or, hear me out, have radar or lidar for redundancy to reduce false positives, as well as mitigate missed emergencies that will (and continue to) happen with vision only.
That should never be a thing imho. There will always be a need (and anxiety) to have overall authority and control in edge cases. Think about it, a steering wheel is not the end of the world, it's an optional and hopefully rarely used tool at best. Getting rid of it completely is just a silly way to be edgy. Make it a rarity, but an option in worst case scenarios. A screen controlled steering wheel would be a PITA in worst case scenarios, not to mention you lose the "comfort" that the device brings to the equation.
All autonomous driving systems have guardrails to prevent catastrophes like a 100% effort turn while at highway speeds, just as one example.
Can radar or LiDAR cause false positives?
Tesla’s approach to Autopilot is bold—vision-only, with no lidar or even radar. While this minimalism has theoretical merit and can perform impressively in controlled conditions, it also turns the road into a kind of high-tech Wild West. Vision can interpret a great deal, but without corroborating systems like radar or lidar, it's inherently brittle in rare but catastrophic edge cases. Think: misidentifying a semi-truck as a road sign, or failing to perceive a stalled car in the lane at night. Even if the system is statistically safer than a human driver, a single failure in these edge scenarios can have devastating consequences. That’s why there's growing industry pressure to include redundant, secondary systems—to act as a safety net. Relying on a vision-only self-driving system is like flying a plane with just one instrument. Sure, it might work most of the time. But when things go wrong, you want backups. Lives depend on it.
Tesla’s approach to Autopilot is a bold—vision-only approach, with no lidar or even radar. While this minimalist approach has theoretical merit and can perform impressively in controlled conditions, it also turns the road into a kind of high-tech Wild West. Vision can interpret a great deal, but without corroborating systems like radar or lidar, it's inherently brittle in rare but catastrophic edge cases. That’s why there's industry pressure to include redundant, secondary systems—to act as a safety net. Relying on a vision-only self-driving system is like flying a plane with just one instrument. Sure, it might work most of the time but when things go wrong, you want backups. Lives depend on it. But sure, let's make it only 2x safer when we could make it 10x safer. It's no longer a cost issue, it's Elon's ego that wants to prove his prior doubters wrong.
If it takes me from 2x safer than human drivers to 10x safer than human drivers, I and many others would gladly pay for it. The costs are abysmal for the added safety but ego's are fragile and Elon is not willing to backtrack despite the lives it could save.
I think I'd want a steering wheel override in the event there are protestors ahead. The obsession with no steering wheel is fantastical and unrealistic, nor does it add in any way to the enjoyment of the experience.
Did an LLM write this? Anyway, no, it's not brittle. Our road systems were literally designed for using vision to drive. It's obviously not only possible, but can be many times safer than humans due to advantages such as being able to see in every direction at once, always paying attention, never being sleepy, never being drunk, etc.
Yeah, in 2208!
Which is all valid criticism. But it doesn't mean the latest iterations are failing and Tesla aren't making progress.
Do you fly in planes?
Like a chase plane.
So, I’m not in this industry and have heard all the arguments on this topic. Honestly, they all sound compelling. However, I can say that my friends who are in this industry do believe that computer vision will be the future. They would also likely argue that the varying cases of sensors could lead to disagreements and hesitation, potentially creating other kinds of death-causing edge cases.
I think I hit “absolutely incredible” in the second half of last year. Now that I have gotten used to this, I do think that there are improvements that are needed on the road.
I'm still in awe. It hasn't gotten old for me. I can still remember how bad it was at the start of 2024, and by the end of 2024 it was shockingly good.
Likely most accidents at city speeds will not be fatal... Unless they take out a pedestrian.
Fixed costs are by definition higher than marginal costs for a product such as a ride share. In some instances, such as this one, the fixed costs have little to no significance. Let's go with your 50 cents figure. Average ride price : 15 USD - 50 cents - 5 miles at 7 cents per mile, 35 cents -> that's an 85 cents ride. 15 USD revenue per ride, that's a net profit of 14.15 USD. Now take a 50k vehicle, such as the Model Y Tesla will be using instead. Assuming you counted 150k for the waymo, that's just 3 times less at the same price / mile for 200k miles. So, 17-ish cents + 35 cents for the same trip, gets us around 14.50 of net profit for the same ride. Does it matter? No. All the extra tech, redundancy, etc. in a waymo has a near insignificant effect on the botton line *right now*. Do you believe that waymo's are destined to never drop in price? Because lidar is now getting cheaper and cheaper. Chips are getting better. Etc. In economics, fixed costs are considered as trending towards zero, as marginal output increases. Any amount spread over a significant amount of rides is a curve that approximates to 0 in the long run.
No, you misunderstood. The 50 cents is *per mile*. So that 5 mile example you have would actually be 57 cents (50 cents from car depreciation; 7 cents from electricity) per mile multiplied by 5 miles, so $2.85 total. Whereas with a $50,000 Tesla, it would be 32 cents (25 cents from car depreciation; 7 cents from electricity) per mile multiplied by 5 miles, so $1.60 total. That means Tesla can offer their rides for nearly half the price as Waymo, and that's being extremely generous in my cost assumptions. In reality, Waymo is likely close to $200,000 in fixed costs per car, whereas Tesla is a little below $40,000. So the actual cost difference is greater than 4x, not even just 2x. All of this means that a ride that costs Tesla $5 would cost Waymo more like $20. Tesla could price their ride at $10 while Waymo might price theirs at $25, and they both make $5 in profit per ride, but obviously drastically more people will choose a $10 ride over a $25 one. > In economics, fixed costs are considered as trending towards zero, as marginal output increases. No, that's not always true. Not when the scale factor you're talking about is tied to the lifetime of the car, which isn't going to increase much. Here we're talking about a $100,000+ car that will last 200,000 miles in an optimistic scenario. You'd be right that the fixed cost of the car wouldn't matter much if they can drastically scale up the number of miles each car lasts, but that won't be the case. So the reality is that the fixed cost of the car is actually the majority of the total cost in this situation.
*cries in Europe*
I'm wary that they're hard to notice. At a glance you wouldn't say it's automated and might not be as careful around it
Thank you!
He has Elon Derangement Syndrome. There is no cure except for poverty.
Love it. Tech vehicle = Elon is a liar. No tech vehicle = Elon doesn't care if someone dies. Make up your mind.
Poverty is a symptom of EDS, not a cure 😉
Both of those are true. Tesla is not capable of unsupervised autonomous driving. Elon claims they are, which is a lie, and if they had no supervision it would be extremely dangerous.
100% more isn't that much?
Hmm, theoretically yes, something that bounces the radar but to a camera is obviously harmless like say plastic from a construction site. But no one is proposing a system of only LiDAR. So I fail to see the problem here. Generally speaking, a more varied setup of sensors is a typical approach to reduce false positives in the whole system. By having more data to use to come to a better conclusion.
Dude, I keep hearing this refrain. Can you wait a week before you gloat? I keep reading all this pre-gloating. The gloating works way better when you have something to gloat about. I'll make you a deal. Come back in 2 weeks when something terrible happens and gloat about it and I will give you an award. Deal? I don't see the upshot of pre-gloating. Do you do that a lot? What do you get out of it? Like an I told you so?
Yours don't wipe a dry frontshield ever??
Noice
Waymo is cheaper than Uber. This is potentially cheaper than Waymo...
A google search tells me that is not true
Step by step it getting there 😍
Yesterday I was driving behind a pickup with a dark trailer and my camera only picked up the truck.... I wouldn't get in this car without a driver.
My Google AI says it's often cheaper. My friend in Austin says it is, she also made the point that it's 100% less rapey... So that's what she uses.
Like you drive the Martian rover: latency is too big for real-time control. So you just mark a path, and the vehicle will execute.
No. Elon simply uses his native Martian calendar. Conversion factor to Earth time is 1.88
It can't and won't until they make hardware changes.
Okay. I thought maybe I was missing something. That seems to be a major oversight for a taxi service.
Love it!!
3 months maybe 6 months definitely
Wrong.
Safety first
Ye but still ass in Montreal. It switched into lanes that are closing. It takes off at red light etc
The robotaxi logo on the side is pretty cringe imo.
there’s no understanding what the required upper boundary for road safety is, therefore the descriptor is meaningless. explain to us how many params they’re at now and what the goal is? you can’t, because nobody knows, not even elon
No, it did not. IDK what example you're thinking of but you're wrong. Since FSD has never been unsupervised and autopilot never claimed to be, the accidents you are thinking of are still 100% driver error. When nobody is behind the wheel, the FSD fatality counter can increment off of zero.
What? A 4x increase isn't meaningless even if you don't yet know what the required number to surpass the human safety threshold is. It still means you get a drastic increase in the capacity for intelligence. Also, they may have already surpassed that threshold. They haven't publicly stated how many parameters they're using. They've only stated the increases. Obviously the Tesla AI team knows, and so does Elon. They could share it and I'd be interested to know, but sharing that doesn't really matter much. The relative increases are what matter if you're trying to analyze what magnitude of improvement to expect.
Waymo is the superior product. I can see farther and react faster. Lidar is a huge advantage that musk refuses to accept.
No Waymo does not do this already. Waymo follows pre-mapped routes using the digital equivalent of guard rails, a mountain of if-then conditions and a remote operator who makes many interventions that don't get counted as interventions because they're done remotely. Drop a Waymo anywhere on planet earth outside 4 small parts of four cities and it will either do nothing or cause harm. Drop a Tesla on any surface of any body in any solar system and it will navigate.
That is the definition of "supervised". But not the definition of "FSD Supervised".
they've only stated increases because that's the only number they can think of that might keep the stock steady. it turns out that investors aren't as dumb as they think they are. just random people on the internet like you
Huh? By your logic they could just lie about the total count to pump the stock. Clearly that's not the reason they haven't stated it. Also, investors must be pretty dumb with your thinking, since Tesla stock is currently at over $1 trillion. Go mald about it.
they do lie in their own way- this is one of them. there's zero regulatory oversight
Ah yes, everything is a lie and it's all fake. My car itself that I drive every day isn't real. You know best!
17 years later we still waiting for Roadster. I’m sure it will be released soon…
I've had it do some randomly "crazy" things that are unsafe/erratic. Subject to those edge cases, which to be clear almost got my into an accident but for me taking over, I do agree that its improved alot.
Yeah, I'm not saying v13.2 is perfect. But it's insanely good.
Ah yes occasionally.
The thing about fallback sensors is that they don't have to detect everything. They just need to detect significant objects like other humans or large vehicles for example. It also doesn't have to be a fallback sensor, it can be primary for collision avoidance pertaining to large objects. The question is if a vision only system gets to 2x as good as a human driver, why should we not aim for 10x by adding sensors to improve emergency situations and try to mitigate the rare events where vision based systems failed the user and other sensors would have prevented it?
I did feed my original post into chatGPT to reword it as I was under the influence. However radar and lidar are supplementary. The question is if we can make it safer why wouldn't we? For example if you add two Radars to the front and have logic that says if a large object the size of a human or car is detected engage emergency braking regardless of what the camera sees. This solves one problem that has resulted in fatalities with vision only systems. If cost is minimal why would we not? I fear musk's ego and desperation to prove people wrong comes at the cost of lives.
I’m talking about the OG Roadster, which came out 17 years ago. The new Roadster was unveiled 8 years ago. That’s still a long time, but it’s *a lot* less than 17.
Musk previously claimed that he only pulled the data from the safest drivers, so I don't know if it is possible for an outsider to know what they are pulling and what they are not.
Why? Do we need to remove more jobs from people?
Yes, it’s a new version
No oncoming traffic
Or even having a few before a party or sports game, leaving with your friends to go to the game, and your car just goes home without you and comes to get you later on wherever you end up.
Yeah I'm a season ticket holder for a college football team. Being able to tailgate and drink with my buds and no DD would be awesome. Or like you said, drop me off at an NBA game and pick me up and not pay for parking? Done!
Maybe I’m wrong but you’re thinking from the perspective of a system that is programmed and not a large AI model. It’s designed nd trained to drive like a human and we don’t use LiDAR. Does anyone even know if an AI model trained on LIDAR data does well and how much data would that require?
I’m still there too. I just don’t have to drive anymore and it’s been months since it made a somewhat critical mistake. My family trusts it as much as my driving. It’s become normal for us but I still marvel at its ability.
If it’s a familiar route for me like my work commute then I absolutely would.
That’s where personal car and cabs would differ.
Wait a min. The Model Y is now a freaking taxi?
100% agree. The only time I take over during my commute is if I want to be more aggressive than the Hurry setting is. I've long given up caring if someone cuts me off or not. I also don't care if another lane will get me there 90 seconds sooner. It's wonderful.
Welcome to reddit. Facts are optional.
What is your threshold? How much safer than a human does it have to be? No software made by humans (or AI, as I recently found out) will ever be 100% perfect.
Can you give me a few examples of your "many times" please? I have a 2024 Model 3 Performance (HW4) in Georgia and I have an extremely small number of disengagements for maps errors -- primarily the HOV lane -- and have had zero on FSD v13.2.9 for safety.
Very curious to know what these are. I have a 2024 Model 3 Performance (HW4) with FSD(s) v13.2.9 and I have had zero safety critical errors. I do have a reproducible lane selection error which is 100% because of poor maps data and not because of FSD.
Even at $48K it's 1/3 the cost of what Waymo has. Scaling Waymo is, thus, 3x as expensive for Tesla. Not to mention they're paying wholesale for virtually everything it takes to run a Robotaxi (maintenance, energy, etc) so the TCO of their platform is even lower. Tesla also 2 million HW4 cars already on the road and will produce another 1 million or so in the remainder of 2025.
They have been doing that for years. All of us with FSD beta/supervised have been safety drivers and they've pulled terabytes worth of video and telemetry from over a million cars to train the AI models. In addition Tesla also has a large team of drivers around the country who drive cars with enhanced telemetry enabled.
>People are not going to be happy, or people with something to hide, with being constantly monitored by self driving cars cruising the streets All of us are monitored constantly by the pocket supercomputer we all have.
Yes. I agree mainly lane errors. Critical errors are rare but they are mainly ones like cutting off cars in a lane next to mine so they have to slam on their brakes or they would definitely hit me. Another example is on my way home I drive on a two lane road (two lanes each way divided by a solid double yellow line. There is a left turn lane right after a traffic light. On FSD my car always tries to turn left from the left lane rather than using the left turn lane which annoys drivers behind me because it clogs up the road or could possibly cause an accident so I take over. I'd say 95+% of the time FSD works great but it still needs correction.
Yep. Same hardware (and eventually software) is in all new 3 / X / Y / CT.
Which setting are you using? The first one sounds like a Hurry behavior versus Standard or Chill. I leave mine on Hurry because the other two leave far too much space in front of me, and people will cut me off constantly. On the second one, do you actually see a turn lane arrow above the directions? The lane selection issue I have is on a highway with an HOV lane and those arrows mistakenly indicate the HOV lane doesn't go straight when it absolutely does. It'll correct itself, and it's not a safety thing. It's just annoying.
So here a link to the pictures ... hopefully it works. I highlighted. You can see it is supposed to get in the small left turn lane which I highlighted in green (it's a small narrow lane) but instead turns from the regular left lane (highlighted in red). When there's not many cars on the road it's not a huge deal because cars can just go to the right lane to get around me but when it gets congested it becomes kind of dangerous especially when cars are going 50 plus miles an hour on this road. I usually just turn off FSD and send a voice note. Maybe they will fix it eventually. https://photos.app.goo.gl/XTLUYqFktkFUApaK9
Totally get it. Curious to know whether or not your car has a turn arrow above the screen. I had a similar issue where the car wouldn't get into a long turn lane because the map data was old. I submitted updates on Google Maps and, the next time my car got a maps update, the turn lane started working.
Interesting...I'll take a look at that on Google! No turn arrow. Just a g/y/r light.
A plane doesn't encounter a lot of traffic lights, pedestrians etc. now does it?
I feel like that would be a good idea too. I had read that BMW and Mercedes Benz added a blue taillight that illuminates when the car is in autonomous mode. I think though it would cost a few more dollars per car, Tesla should implement that in all future cars produced. A blue taillight would also debunk FSD crash lies if there are nearby cars with cameras.
It’s probably as autonomous as Optimus is.
> Why not take advantage of that, especially when it's only like $40 and you can replace them easily without having to create your own controller from scratch. and in the xbox controller case, most of us had spares on hand...
> Yours don't wipe a dry frontshield ever?? Part of this is to establish a baseline for the rain sensor. No idea why people freak out about a single wipe once in a while.
> Does anyone even know if an AI model trained on LIDAR data does well and how much data would that require? https://youtu.be/VuDSz06BT2g?si=1t9baz0oNS80eiJf&t=1048 yes.
When will I be able to recline my seat and have my model y drive me home through rush hour traffic. That’s all I want…
No, WASD
Well... it ruins the windshield. Dragging small pebbles of sand across the window doesn't actually do wonders.
Is that the December update? I notice that FSD got waaay better after that. I would use it all the time but I'm to cheap to pay for it. Plan on ordering on the months that I'm doing road trips.
If they hit someone how do you exchange information
How do you define "in" the crosswalk? From the video, these people have nearly crossed the street when the car stops in the intersection. It's impossible to tell from this video where they were before the car starts turning. Based on the speed they are walking, I will assume they were at the edge of the street when the car begins turning. Regardless, a human would look, see they are walking towards the road and interpret that the walkers would use the right of way legally granted to them and not begin the turn.
It wasn’t even an Xbox controller it was a knockoff Logitech gamepad that can be had for like $20 and has known QC issues
Doesnt matter. The info should be transparent regardless of what or how you think it will be used.
With a drone hooked up by wire behind the car for the 3rd person view.
I feel exactly the same way! And my commute is 40 miles and wonderful now!
I would just like if I could still sit in the drivers seat and pay a little less attention between nags. If I could sit in the drivers seat and get some of my work done on my commutes, I could be at the office for 2 less hours a day!
WASD or die!
Exactly. I don't see any issue with this, I don't know why some people are getting so worked up about it. Just because there's no driver doesn't mean there won't be a dispatcher somewhere keeping an eye on things
Collisions per X miles does not work as great as people think it does for true FSD (not the beta which is just a level 2 ADAS requiring the driver to pay attention and be ready to take over instantly) because the liability game changes drastically when you get to level 3 or beyond. Especially the pipe dream (step in car "where would you like to go today batman" "work" and the car drives itself as you sleep or read the newspaper). Once you get past level 2 FSD (where the system can disengage or do a wrong maneuver and the driver is expected to have been paying complete attention ready to take over within milliseconds) by level 3 you have a system that has to offer the driver the chance to have several seconds to engage. If the system hits a car or a person and damages/injures/kills them, if it's not level 2 or below and the system is on, the liability for the accident then goes to the automaker with far bigger pockets and far less jury sympathy. Therefore to get to true FSD (which isn't even level 3 ADAS, it's level 5), you have to be orders of magnitude *safer* than a standard person, because a standard person only has so much insurance and so much assets that at some point it's trying to draw blood from a stone to get more, versus an automaker that is worth *over a trillion dollars* (market cap as I write this comment).
*De jure* if it's 10x more miles driven than the average human, a compelling moral argument. *De facto* if you get beyond Autopilot/FSD (Beta) being considered level 2 ADAS' (where Tesla can legally argue it's the driver's fault to not being able to take over immediately), then it has to be several orders of magnitude safer than a human being, because Tesla isn't some uncollectible person with state minimum $10K liability insurance, it's a company worth more than a trillion dollars. The accident lawsuits at level 3 and beyond (including level 5, true FSD, no expectation any vehicle occupant ever has to do anything to operate the vehicle to avert an accident) would be against Tesla, not the individual driver.
No the proof comes from data. It can be looked at by lots of various sources. You can't just not release the data that shows its safe just because you think someone might read it incorrectly. That's not transparency.
Has anyone seen the new 2026 model y with the performance logo? Thought they don't make performance yet?
You're right, but you don't know it
Yes, actually Do you understand how many human-hours are spent commuting?
Also, all teslas already have cameras?
Model 3/Y will still have steering wheels, robotaxi doesn't because it (1 is a different type of vehicle) (2 has to be as cheap as possible)
I disagree tbh. As long as it drives fine, it should be allowed on the road.
> debunk FSD crash lies if there are nearby cars with cameras. It's a shame that recordings don't have this information somehow added to them, like a sidebar with extra info
Teslas are currently geofenced to USA and China (which is still awesome)
Widely available: Tesla makes 500k cars per year and FSD works in the entire USA and China Low cost: A model 3 is $40k, a robotaxi will be $30k. A waymo is $100+? and costs similar to a normal Uber
The overlay would just be constantly faked for FUD.
I doubt it would be common, but it would be a concern I guess
:o
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