Tesla's robotaxi service in Austin barely exists at all

It's enough to support one assholes ketamine habit, so they really got something going there.

Really surprising that Musks fairy tales don't live up to scrutiny 😂

How can a Tesla investor compare this to Waymo and not be embarrassed idk

Smoke and mirrors just like the rest of Elon's frauds. He's the world's biggest conman.

Wow, I forgot that this started way back in June!

The stock is up and that’s the only thing that musk cares about

Bullish! Should be good for another 20 point pop in the stock!

You're only missing the follow-car for the 'no safety supervisor' clips.

It's not even Robotaxi, it's a manned vehicle.

They’re now recruiting people from the factory floor to be “AI Operators” to supervise “RoboTaxi” while still sitting in the front seat. lol

I remember last week when last week when Elon sycophants were taking victory laps on 1 10 second video

I was just in Austin a couple of weeks ago. Waymos were everywhere and even fulfilled about a third of my Uber rides. As expected they worked really well

Nice research. The best explanation for why Tesla would operate so few vehicles in Austin is that they’re worried about crashing. They’ve already had 8 crashes since launch, even with a tiny fleet, so they’re understandably terrified about scaling the operation. Basically, **if they really only have 8 cars concurrently on the road and 8 cars have crashed since July, then they destroy 100% of their active fleet every 6 months or so.** If they put anymore cars on the road, it becomes impossible to keep hiding the truth.

Haven't some people reported a lead car too?

Really appreciate you providing those numbers. I suspected it was bad but it’s nice to quantify how bad.

Good Elon logic demo within this short but significant comment

This is great analysis. Anything that breaks down the actual numbers is appreciated. It really seems this entire thing was an illusion for shareholders and influencers only. With no intent of ever offering a genuine transportation service in Austin. If global regulators take note this could come back to bite them for years.

Remember their first “self driving autonomous delivery”? Suspiciously never happened again

This is consistent with the back of the envelope calculation I did during the first couple weeks of the robitaxi roll out. Everything was being videoed and released, but I did a quick poisson statistics analysis based on number of significant failures during the first week, assuming 10 cars. Significant failures meaning things that people released on videotape, with general commentary saying this was a bad mistake. Dropping passengers off in the middle of an active intersection, driving on the wrong side of a two-way road and entering a left turn lane from the left side, speeding and slamming on the brakes going around a parked police car, and so on. That analysis showed that the 95% confidence interval of the mean time between significant failures, was between 3-8 days per car. This seems fairly consistent with a failure requiring replacement rate of 1 per 6 months.

Does it pump the stock price? Does it allow sell-side analysts to pluck future earnings estimates from the stratophere? Then its functioning as intended.

If you’re as deep in Tesla stocks as many of the investors, you just go with the hype until it crashes. Investing is about staying above a specific return rate as well as investing in the best available option. Many alternate options are hard to justify right now, while TSLA is probably still well above the goal ROI —> no need to divest —> keep the hype up.

Yeah but the more cars they crash the less inventory buildup they have ;)

Suggests things haven’t improved much/at all since launch. And with so few cars, they aren’t collecting anywhere near enough training data. They’re caught in their own web of deception - determined to hide their mistakes instead of learn from them.

Uber uses Waymo? Didn't realize that (not yet in my area, the coverage stops 3 miles from my house). When you use the Uber app do they give you a choice to use Waymo? Friends of mine who have used Waymo have always used the Waymo app.

The number of actual, driverless, non-remote control robotaxis anywhere in America remains firmly at zero. With some prodding you can even get Grok to admit teslas “FSD” is an ADAS level 2 system.

This ☝️ All that matters is the stock price. Whether what’s promised actually works is irrelevant

You mean to say we will have flying cars driven by robots next year stocks hits all time high..

I fully expect Elon to announce (flying) robotaxis to Mars by the end of 2027.

Correct. I don't have the Waymo app. When I requested rides with Uber, the Uber app would give me an option for using a Waymo which usually came with a longer wait. I used it the few times it was quicker. If you wanted to use human drivers you wouldn't have to use the Waymo option

Prodding I just asked it said it right away

3 to 8 taxis in Austin? That's a trillion-dollar business right there

And full self-flying to Mars. Hop on and go. What he won’t say is how to get back to Earth. You’re on your own. One more thing, bring your own food.

Imagine if they put 16 taxis- 2 trillion dollar biz and double market cap!

It's just to keep the scam going so he doesn't get sued as he released a robotaxi even though it's not ready

>Dropping passengers off in the middle of an active intersection, driving on the wrong side of a two-way road and entering a left turn lane from the left side, speeding and slamming on the brakes going around a parked police car, and so on. Technology has made us too accepting of using non-finished products. "It's in beta! There are going to be mistakes". By the time the product is available to use, these issues cannot exist when it's driving a multi-ton battering ram.

Wait it’s 9 crashes now? So their average has dropped even lower from 40,000 miles per accident on average vs a human’s 500,000 miles? Awesome.

BuT tHe StOcK pRiCe HiT aLl TiMe HiGh…

I appear to be banned from an elonmusk thread LOL. I do not even know why it came up on my feed because I do not remember it. I guess they just wanted to tell me that. It must have been something I said about elon musk being a freaking goon and a detriment to society.

You will never reach a good daylight-time coverage without lidar. (Camera gets blinded by the sun). Furthermore the same applies to stronger rain as well as fog...

It's a great fraud though. This "fleet" of a few "Robotaxis" with drivers has tricked Wall Street into giving them hundreds of billions in market cap. It is all hilariously stupid.

By being amazingly ignorant, getting other true believers to brigade against critics, and banning you from any discussion any time they are able to do so.

Waymo has thousands.

Waymo in Austin collected training data for over 5 years before picking up paying passengers!

idk, but the stock price went up like 20% after the day of the launch

And they were in Phoenix before that. They had 250 cars on the road in 2020. And they had several thousand by 2022.

And water And Oxygen And a shovel & sleeping bag (don’t forget materials to build a shelter

its only available to like minded hive members to advertise the pump and dump of the stock. its not a real service. you spent more time on this post than anyone spent on tesla robotaxi service.

Wow, it takes more manpower to supervise a robo than it would to just drive a normal car.

Musk only needs 10 cars to make news and lure eyeballs. More than 10 is excessive.

Be honest. Do you really need that extra “barely” word in your statement ?

Tesla has filed a new patent to integrate Starlink satellite antenna on the roof of its EVs. It is bulky and ugly which Musk used to describe lidars. But Musk may use it to remote control its robotaxis. It provides better and wider coverage than 5G and has low latency of <100 ms. Musk may remove the safety monitor and teleoperate with the antenna, giving the illusion of full autonomy.

Imagine if Austin had a blackout and the Robotaxis were affected like the Waymo’s in SF. Nobody would even notice.

Sounds like the Vegas tunnel. Millions in infrastructure, vehicles and salaries to accomplish what an underground tram could do at 10% of the cost. Elon truly is a genius.

Sounds like more fun than having your hand sliced off by sheet metal.

I've heard enough, $1Tn more to Elon musk

The only thing keeping Musk from real success is reality.

This is bullish. More calls on TSLA. /s

It is NOT a Robotaxi. "Robo" implies autonomy. FSD is Supervised. It doesn't matter if the person is in the car or remotely controlling it. Tesla currently has ZERO autonomous miles on the road. Even the 'from factory to parking' is in a closed private area (and tbh, I never saw proof of that).# \--- The Waymo CEO said it best: if you need a license, it's not autonomous.

The service exists for the believers to have something to hold onto. It doesn't have to make sense to outsiders.

I have no idea what an average ride costs, let's say it's $20. 250 rides/day at $20 average comes out to $100 in revenue per employee. No wonder the stock is up. /s

9 crashes in 250k miles is atrocious, and that is with supervision! These thingg should not be allowed out on public streets.

TSLA "investors" are not investing in the company or its products. They are investing in the gullibility of other "investors".

They operate just enough to say they are "running robotaxis in Austin". Everything Tesla and Musk does is just about perpetuating the illusion.

This is it folks! This is what it's all about. There will only be just enough from Tesla to keep the illusion that it's a real company with real products alive so the ponzi can continue forever, but let's remember they never do.

[https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED286154](https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED286154)

With \*supervision\*!

Electrek basically says this same thing in their report today: https://electrek.co/2025/12/22/tesla-robotaxi-project-austin-much-smaller-than-musk-claims/