‘Big Short’ Burry SLAMS Tesla: "Ridiculously Overvalued"

Now ask him what color the sky is.

I know we all know this already but a) it is newsworthy that this particular individual is putting this message out and b) he makes some points, new to me, about share dilution, which John Johnson explains in this video, that tipped me in favour of posting it.

Well, it was overvalued since at least 1.5 years. I don't see anything happening to the TSLA stock. If it is market manipulation, it is maintained pretty well.

If there is one guy who should know that the market will stay illogical, it is Burry.  Musk is the Madoff of this generation. Everyone knows what Musk is promising is too good to be true, they just want to get rich off of his lies and aren’t willing to look too close at the lies as long as they are making money.

yeah this is where my four put contracts from July & September are. Still have 3 & 4 months left on them but this stock is being priced, as much as it is individually bought, on promises for 2030+ not any performance this decade. It had the same story a year ago and it still crashed from $480 to $220 (mid-December to early March) so I don't see why it can't happen again, but what's pushing this stock up & down is not something I understand in the slightest.

It's sad that he needs to overstate the obvious.

Felon Musk makes Madoff, Holmes and the execs as Enron look like pickpockets.

\> but what's pushing this stock up & down is not something I understand in the slightest. TSLA is a speculative bubble, nothing else! It's like crypto inasmuch as it's not attached to anything in the real world.

It's Musk saying something unhinged to manipulate the market maker algorithms. Something like: 4 trillion optimus robots taking all the jobs in 10 years!, the algorithms love it.

My guess it's being pumped up with Saudi oil money as they diversify out of oil and into future tech and political influence.

This makes sense. If they think The Line in Neom is a good idea, Tesla stock looks a relatively sensible investment in comparison.

Not every tech company is going to want to play with the Saudis. But Tesla is public so they can buy it and with Musk being clearly corrupt it allows them to massage a whole lot of inuence today and if Tesla makes good over the next decade on any of its tech then it's a break even buy with a decade of influence already in the bag. It's a stupid buy for you and me, so you gotta ask who can buy it, why would they buy it, and what do they get for it.

Slams! We got him this time.

If I had a dime for...

Yup. Do you believe in tulip bulbs? Your answer will indicate your level of risk acceptance.

Believe it or not, some people *actually* think his robot stuff is real.

I’d say it’s been overvalued for pretty much a decade at LEAST.

His rockets and cars were.

The car business is a pretty bad business to be in. “His rockets” don’t have anything to do with Tesla.

Look at that drugged out conman. Or was that when he was crying because someone pointed out that he was born rich from money made off of Apartheid?

The valuation is solely based on Tesla dominating in robotics and robo-taxis where it currently isn't making money and isn't leading the space.

If anything, the cult will buy more just because Burry said this. Up is down. Cat is dog.

Yes, he is building rockets and cars, but they aren't the rockets and cars that he had promised they would be. They are just props in his show.

... every lie from Mollusk's mouth, I'd be a trillionaire.

I thought they've all bailed each other out at times. If Tesla and Solar City had folded instead of merged thanks to the solar roof ~~hype~~ fraud, I believe SpaceX had a large investment or amount of bonds that would have caused SpaceX to fold as well. He's always done this, and it really probably isn't legal without board approval. It's why the argument to have Tesla invest in xAI and X and xAI have been so controversial

yes, some people think there's a huge market and they're going to sell millions of them. Some people think they will cost like $15-20k and be everywhere replacing factory workers. I don't see how such a complex piece of machinery--requiring far more precision than a car--can cost less than $50k, maybe even $100k. That's not counting development costs. We also know they don't work. He was supposed to have 20,000 made already, he doesn't. Every robotics expert says there's zero market for them. They only way they sell any is if it's the same way he's selling Cybertrucks...if his other companies buy them.

He delivered on something he said he would so he'll deliver on everything he says he will, is that it? Just ignore all the stuff he's failed to deliver on.

It's also one of the stocks with the highest retail ownership levels. And compared to the others, it's by far the least profitable. It's going to be scary when they report financials in January and have lost out on almost half their profits. And Q1 2026 will be worse as the solar/Powerwall credits will be gone as well. At this point the company is being pumped by retail investors. It's the Robinhood bros that think you're only supposed to boy low, sell high, and when it drops keep adding to the position. They don't look at other technicals, they don't take profits, they don't look at profitability, viability, or if the company actually has a path forward or a vision. It was a car company with a muddled vision, but innovating. That stopped like 5 or 6 years ago. But that was okay, because it was also an energy company with the supercharger network, Powerwalls, solar panels, community grid solutions, etc. Everything it did was in the realm of bringing electric mainstream, and you could make the case they had a level of expertise. But they've dropped all of that, and Musk is making bold claims about robots that don't work, chips that don't exist, self driving vehicles that currently aren't able to drive on the road (need a wheel and pedals), and self driving tech that is repeatedly running stop lights, stop signs, left red arrows, can't manage railroad tracks or school buses, etc. They had some things they were good at, but now they've forgotten

This is the populist wave so it makes sense. We have people who probably can barely operate a computer worshipping the AI robot taxi con man.

It's driven by Elon's endless and exponentially expanding hype. Market analysts at least understand that Elon overpromises and underdelivers to some extent but they apparently can't (or won't) perform a real critical analysis of the company's technical or economic prospects. So they just set price targets based on taking what Elon says and derating it by some Elon factor that maybe made sense in 2018 but hasn't kept pace with how much more outlandish he's gotten or how poor their recent performance has been.

Gary Black is the only analyst I can respect, yes. "Gary Black Says Sky-High 200x Valuation Rests On ‘Fool’s Narrative’ Of Robots And Autonomy"

True

If its that cheap they cant earn money on it. Its a lose/lose. For 1 trillion dollars they would gave to sell 50 million robots at $20000, and then- if they made them for free and at no material and RnD cost they would cover that new pay package….

Reddit is so dumb! That’s not Michael Burry it’s Russell Crowe.

He’s failed on the boring machine and I don’t like the guy. I think he’s a war criminal. He had starlink in Russia and Ukraine He’s playing both sides. But the rockets are revolutionary.

The rockets like Tesla cars are something he bought into after someone else proved the concept.  Sure his money helped get them off the ground, but SpaceX actively try’s to keep him out of everyday decisions.

Okay and what does making revolutionary rockets have to do with delivering 10 billion humanoid robots or other ridiculous claims he makes about Tesla? And he's been failing at Tesla on a lot more than making tunnels. Cybertruck is a sales embarassment with no promised "if it fails we'll just do a normal pickup" in sight. Semi and solar roof tiles are vaporware. Unsupervised FSD has missed like a thousand supposedly dead certain timelines. Robotaxi deployment has been far below promises and demonstrates basically nothing in terms of new technology. Battery technology promises have been almost entirely memory holed. And so on. Tesla has been pretty much in a standstill for years now.

It's actually extremely hard to replicate human dexterity and grip strength with humanoid robots. These hype companies want us to think that neiral nets and training off of human video captures is a silver bullet. It isn't.

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And this, boys and girls, is why education is so important. The more one knows, the less they get fooled by charlatans.

The "pay package" goals aren't intended to be accomplished. They are to give the illusion that Tesla has some kind of great future ahead to keep inflating the stock bubble. It's all just dancers in neoprene suits.

That technology is still very far away and Tesla is trailing way behind anyway.

\> “His rockets” don’t have anything to do with Tesla. Oh, but they do. It's not the same company but TSLA isn't about cars or robots. It's about selling the mythology of Wile Elon Musk, Super Genius. His other vaporware ventures help fuel that mythology.

It's all part of one big shell game.

When has he actually delivered on anything? Even the stuff he pretends to deliver falls far short of the expectations he created.

War is peace. Ignorance is strength.

\> It's driven by Elon's endless and exponentially expanding hype. This is exactly what TSLA is. It's just tulipmania, but every bubble eventually bursts and when it does a lot of people are going to be very unhappy when their stock is worth less than Confederate money.

Did you just loose billions betting against AI?

Model 3 and Y were at least not ridiculously far off in terms of schedule, price and specifications but those were several years ago now. Many years ago Tesla seemed to be pushing this concept of gradual, incremental progress towards mainstream affordable electric vehicles with Roadster, Model S/X and Model 3/Y being credible steps towards that goal. Since then that mission plan has apparently completely broken down with the "Model 2" being entirely scrapped.

Hence why Ashok Elluswamy is telling Tesla engineers 2026 is going to be the hardest year of their lives. As if they hadn't already been pushing their workers far too hard for decades. He really thinks that they can accomplish anything in any time frame so long as they yell at and abuse their workers hard enough. How they still believe this after years of failing to accomplish what they promised to is anyone's guess. Elon may be this delusional too, or he may very well be knowingly lying his ass off about everything he says they'll do.

You only make money if you sell though??? There are a lot of people who bought 6 years ago. If they sold recently, they made money. If they have not sold yet, then they have not made a penny yet... Anyone buying now is not 'making' money. And if all the stars aligned, Tesla could be worth 400 a share some day. But other than the car, there has not been any other product Tesla has come up with that has panned out. And none they are suggesting are trillion dollar ideas to begin.

They can not even wipe down a counter unless that counter is extremely predictable and they spend millions teaching it to do it. Send it to some unfamiliar environment and it will be totally useless. That ignoring that the battery goes dead in about an hour of any real work.

I think it might be the last year of their lives as Tesla engineers.

Hyundai has been making factory robots for decades

> But the rockets are revolutionary. The rockets were inevitable, as evidenced by Blue Origin. Even with that, SpaceX is full of hype. When was it he said he'd send something to Mars? When did he say people would be on Mars? He made a colony prediction too, didn't he?

> Many years ago Tesla seemed to be pushing this concept of gradual, incremental progress The problem is that the gradual improvements were to the Tesla bottom line, not for value to the customer. They've spent most of the last decade decontenting their bland, poorly made, ten year old cars. > Since then that mission plan has apparently completely broken down with the "Model 2" being entirely scrapped. Because the decontenting of the existing models has show that not only is there little demand for bottom end cars, at least in the western countries, there's no money to be made selling those same cars. They can't make them for a price people are willing to pay for a car with zero features people expect. All they have are the government mandated functionality.

He landed rockets. He’s caught rockets. Nobody else has done that.

Are you suggesting he sells SpaceX to Tesla at near zero dollars? That might prop up Tesla a bit I suppose.

Some of their bigger robotics AI talents have already been leaving.

Wait until they start losing money, the stock tanks, and shareholder lawsuits pile up. I wonder if they will still believe in it then

Saudis or Russia trying to seek political influence in the US

I honestly think the whole house of cards might well collapse before 2026 is out, and there won't be any Tesla engineers at all.

Lemme get this straight. According to Nole in 20 years income will not be needed and robots do everything. So then why does he need $1 trillion?

>training off of human video captures There's no way that could work

What future tech?

Yeah the idea that video captures of people driving cars could be used to teach AIs how to drive cars would be an incredibly dumb business plan. Cant think of anyone doing that.

I’m beginning to think he can keep the scam running forever.

I was talking about the humanoid robots. But obviously Tesla self driving doesn't work either.

😂 buying more.

Sure, I just wanted to illustrate the absurdity

China is already making them cheaper and better, so if there is a market China will get it.

The USA market is overhang over voids. Crypto fraud and fraudsters being pardoned and unleashed on retail. Oligarchs literally shutting down institution created specifically to prevent a repeat of 2008. AI firms promising 1.4T$ in datacenter construction, and already asking for PREVENTIVE BAILOUT! Demanding hundreds of new nuclear plants to be built, stats! Tariffs throwing a wrench on supply chains. Deportation of legal migrants, the backbone of USA manufacturing and agricoltural workforce. USA slashing taxes to rich and increasing spending, 120% debt gdp ratio and 6% deficit, leaving little to no margin for stimulus the next crisis that hits the USA. I am not sure what will give in first, but I fill all will unroll.

It’s so crazy I remember seeing all the Elizabeth Holmes cars everywhere on roads around the world, and Bernie madoffs 10,000 satellite global internet service. Man those were the days. 😂

And it saves how many dollars per launch, after refurbishing the parts? Nobody has run the numbers.