What Tesla said regarding HW3 FSD updates

I don't mind waiting for FSD Unsupervised to be done. Wouldn't want to get HW4 and then be obsolete in 6 months (again). But they need to make sure there is an upgrade path...

Think I read something similar about HW3 vs HW2. So.. don't count on it.

I'm on HW3 - not holding my breath for the supposed upgrade to HW4

It’s going to be as long as they can possibly draw it out so there are less people to upgrade.

At least let FSD transfe be available for HW3 all the time. Not just during special promotions.

Eh? HW3 upgrades were started around 2 years before the public FSD beta was a thing.

Just allow a permanent upgrade for FSD license holders. Let me trade in my car for a new one and keep FSD anytime v whenever they need a sales boost.

I figure there's going to be a HW5 and it would be easier to wait to upgrade hw3 to hw5. maybe unsupervised works on hw4 but hw5 is better and hw3 cars will end up more capable than hw4...but i'm probably just dreaming

Considering we’ll probably never see FSD unsupervised on HW4 either, you can consider HW3 completely obsolete.

I'm on the same train of thought, but we are all dreaming.

Don’t have FSD for my HW3, but would buy it in a heartbeat with any believable guarantee that I would have unsupervised at some point. Have a feeling that once unsupervised is more available or an upgrade path is made public, the price will definitely go up though.

NEWS: We’re kicking the can; again. ;)

Time to issue refunds then.

Stupid question but what do they mean time to get FSD unsupervised finished yet they are running and hyping up Austin robotaxi.

Yup. I’m about to ask for a refund for FSD on my 2021 plaid. It’s been 4 years and it still won’t do what they promised, and it’ll most likely be years until it can, and that’s not close to what they were promising / representing when they were selling FSD back in 2021. I also have a 2018 model X with it. That’s when they were saying 6 months to a year for sure….

They have no intention of ever upgrading HW3 cars. They're going to kick the can down the road until none are left on the road. Just give me a refund.

Yep they’re betting on people ditching hw3 cars first

This. It’s not even thinly veiled. They’ve stretched the truth with “self driving” for years…

Every day that goes by, there’s fewer and fewer HW3 cars on the road. Tesla is playing a game of attrition.

Perhaps us HW3 owners will be offered significant discounts on new cars?

Makes perfect sense

> I’m about to ask for a refund for FSD Does this work? Have others actually been getting refunds?

Why is this an either-or situation? Wouldnt the hw4+ retrofit be a mostly hardware project while the actual fsd is software? Lame excuses.

Same. Day 1 reservation Model 3 owner with FSD. Already got the first upgrade to HW3 but I was promised full self drive. IIRC it was an $8000 US option in 2018 dollars. The hardware needed is irrelevant, fulfill my purchase.

This is partially an attrition play, some percentage of current Tesla owners will jump ship. What happens in that case?

That would be sweet, and incredibly unlikely imo.

Next year

[deleted]

That's going to go on forever. HW25, HW26 etc

Don't forget us hardware 2.5 people too... Edit: I forgot they upgraded me to 3.0 when I bought fsd

Yes. That's why this response is BS. Just kicking the can down the road.

Can I have my $2000 back? I was promised unsupervised FSD soon (TM)

Well said brother

Going to drag their feet for 4 years.

Let’s say they release unsupervised on HW4. Which HW4 owners are going to risk going unsupervised without insurance coverage for it? (I realize there will always be some who are yolo/not care about consequences out there, but dang.)

I feel the same way about my 2017 X with paid-up-front FSD. I’m keeping it at this point as leverage.

Same. Bought EAP with the car, upgraded to FSD like a year later for $2k when they had a special deal. Got the retrofit like 4 years ago. Lost use of my radar. Still waiting....

I thought there were physical barriers to the upgrades, not an actual unwillingness to do it...they'd have to drastically overhaul cars with HW3.

I see no precedent for that. On the flip side, thanks to plummeting resale values on our cars, at least somebody is getting a discount. It's definitely not us.

Not happening, a single example of the company taking care of early adopters since its inception?

He is just waiting us out to not have to do it

I’m guessing that is why those of us original owners with HW3 vehicles have been getting special offers to upgrade. They can avoid paying the cost of upgrading your vehicle to HW4, if you no longer own it.

The physical barrier is that for HW3 cars the space inside the car for housing the computer is too small to fit a HW4 computer. So they need to re-engineer the self driving hardware before HW3 cars can be upgraded. This job becomes easier over time, because as technology advances the computer chips and associated support hardware (cooling etc.) get smaller for the same amount of compute power.

At this point I'd be happy to take a refund, or lifetime transferability to a new car

HW100 or go home newb

We'd have to sue for breach of contract for failing to deliver. Also never got software updates that would actually appreciate the value of the car rather than depreciate.

Yeah for all the HW3 owners with FSD, my guess is they end up doing a free FSD transfer and $ off a new purchase. That would (in theory) give people a “refund” on FSD in the form of a discount on a new car. So you’d have to buy a new car to feel like you got your money back, and Tesla saves money not having to switch the hardware.

You can 100% get a refund. There's mediation precedent for HW3 customers getting refunds in mediation.

That’s exactly what I did with the model 3 I have. So, I currently own four teslas (all bought new, and three with FSD). I won’t be buying another one. It’s a shame how they turned someone who was a brand ambassador into someone almost anti Tesla at this point! I was so enthusiastic! Bought shares back in 2014. Leased a 2016 model x, then purchased a 2018 model x when the lease was up, then purchased a model 3, then in 2021, the model s plaid. Then in 2023, a model 3 for one of my kids. How they completely flipped my view of them is a testament to how things have been run the last couple of years….

Are they just hoping people trade out of these cars? We used to have a 2018 with FSD that was upgraded for free to HW3. When HW4 came out I’m sure they were just hoping people would buy new cars rather than hold Tesla to the promise that was made to those who bought and paid for full self driving.

Yeah, at least apply sort of credit to a new car

I'm still on HW2.5! I wouldn't mind getting a hand-me-down from someone else upgrading.

And let us transfer it to used cars not from Tesla. If I pay $8k for a feature, it should be mine to take to any future Tesla of my choosing.

Yes. Should be able to buy another Tesla, added to your account. Then transfer FSD to another car within your account. Could be some limitations, maybe one transfer per month.

At this point cut over to HW5, that should be out soon.

A lot of unprecedented things have happened during the course of history. In this particular case, perhaps no other car manufacturer has made FSD-like promises that need to be remedied at some point. There has been some recognition by Tesla that a remedy would be necessary, so even Tesla knows that they need to do something. That thing may not come as soon as most HW3 owners would like, me included. I expect that there will eventually be a reckoning.

In other news if you wait n more years to “figure it out” the number of hw3 cars still on the road will be reduced making it cheaper. That is the real plan.

Had a mobile tech tell me last week that they’ve had the talks with management about retrofitting HW 3 to 4, but he’s unsure on any timeframe.

What if you paid $12k (x2) for FSD on HW3 (2022 model 3P and YLR). So pissed

What makes you think that? They have robotaxis operating in Austin right now running HW4.

Yes

Technology isn’t stagnate. All technology becomes obsolete eventually

Gonna be a long fucking time considering how long teslas last lol theirs 2018 and earlier going strong still lol

Physical barrier is bullshit they just have to release a revised model designed to fit the old slot and harness

I seriously doubt that beyond the random crash lol theirs still he2.5 cars on the road going strong and teslas seem to hold up pretty damn well longterm lol

They simply can’t do it. The cost to retrofit these cars is beyond the value of the majority of the HW3 fleet; not to mention the lack of service center capacity to ever do this feasibly. They’re only waiting until as few HW3 cars with FSD licenses are on the road as possible to fully throw in the towel and accept the lawsuits and payouts. Does anyone really believe truly unsupervised FSD is coming even in the next 5yrs? Bros been saying FSD was coming next year since like 2017. Simply put: the check’s in the mail.

Give me 0% apr, free supercharging and upgrade to new Model S, i.will think about it.

What I really want to know is if those of us that didn't buy FSD will also get the upgrade if we use the monthly sub... From a marketing standpoint they should... But it would probably take a lawsuit. I do remember the ads saying my car had all the hardware needed for lvl5 Soo....

With a Tesla employee resting their hand on abort button the whole time. That is not unsupervised.

Can I get a refund for my falsely advertised HW3 vehicle?

eventually people will learn there is no can

How many times do they have to say it's a precautionary measure to have safety monitors? Those monitors will be gone soon.

I’m on HW2 so…

It's not like we want to play dvds on a Walkman.  This was a feature we paid for in our cars.

And technology advances. Lease next time

I was wondering if they could build AI5 to be more upgradable from 3 than 4 is

When he said that part, it sounded absolutely absurd, even if they dropped full self driving unsupervised.

Still can’t believe this was priced at $15k at one point

Yes, but he did state it multiple times and they failed to deliver any feature that would even slow the depreciation.

Sorry, but what dumb logic. The technology is irrelevant.  A company is obligated to give a product they were paid to give.

Its still supervision dude. Its FSD (supervised). Tesla can say whatever bullshit they want. Its still supervised. They are getting closer, but the learning curve to unsupervised is exponential.

When will people realize that?

That’s the one I’m waiting for

Tesla itself has some examples… - Model S owners with Free Supercharging for life. - Model 3 owners with HW2.5 upgraded to HW3.

Refund? They will have to refund for compound amount, not the same. At least inflation should count. I’m going to wait HW5, if they don’t offer upgrade would be time to mass sue them

Think of all the interest they’ve made on that money too. It’s borderline criminal.

Ugh

Honestly I'm not happy that my car has lidar and they abandoned support of it to save a buck. I'm not happy that I'll probably never get upgraded. But would I take a refund to lose the version of autopilot I have? ... Probably not. I'm pretty dependent on it even in its incomplete form.  sometimes I eat while driving and it's an extra bit of peace of mind

It's not just a precautionary measure though. Those safety monitors have intervened to prevent dangerous situations on multiple occasions. It's definitely not ready to go without safety operators.

HW3 owners should just get free supervised FSD until it is figured out

My Model X pre raven I’ve had for a little over 6 years. I was told V11 would give me FSD by Christmas 2019 😂 It’s dope when it works and scary af when it doesn’t

I’m on HW3 and I’m super glad I didn’t waste my money on FSD.

They will work on finishing unsupervised on HW 4, but HW 5 will come out before it’s released— and repeat.

Personally im waiting for HW420

This is my hope. That I can get that along with a separate significant discount on Cybertrucks they’re having trouble selling, which might get the price down to what I can justify.

That sounds like a win for both involved parties

Exactly. We’ve been around enough to know Musks lies and they’re going to come up with some kind of BS down the road to lessen the sting maybe but it sure as hell isn’t upgrading all HW3 cars to HW4.

They wouldn’t do it out of the goodness of their heart, no. But if it saves _them_ money… If it costs them $3000 in labor and parts to upgrade a car, they may offer you a $2000 discount on a new car instead (contingent on you must wave your right to upgrade the old car) And, if their profit margins/markup on the car is more than $2000, they’ll still make some profit on the sale even

lol, a true dream. They will never. They got our money and have zero intent to upgrade our hardware.

Mmhmm, in which year again?

Yep. My 2018 Model 3 is on HW3. It’s almost like I got a new car when I upgraded last year.

Forward facing radar. Your car never had lidar

in other words, 2 years at least

My car's only 7 years old, so they won't be waiting me out... My other car is 26 years old now lol

Duh.

Your HW3 is going to a very important piece in the master plan. Once retrofitted, these cars are going to become cash cows for the owners.

They advertised FSD as becoming feature complete since at least 2019. That’s false advertising plain and simple

👌

Battery

I’m an OG fan, but hard to tell if you’re sarcastic or not.

Will probably still be fine by then.

Other auto manufacturers charge for software add ons and they're never transferrable to other cars. Maybe it's "standard" (everyone has to pay for it) or maybe it's a premium package. BMW sold an unlock for heated seats, nobody thought you should be able to buy another BMW and transfer it over (although people complained about the fact that the heated seats were in the car, just disabled). Other manufacturers have upgradeable navigation, adaptive cruise control, etc. It shouldn't be disabled if you sell the car, but I don't see why people think it's their right to have it transferred to a new car. I know they offer it intermittently, but that's more of a courtesy/incentive in my opinion.

End of the year like 4 years ago

26 years????? Lol

This is hilarious.

other manufacturers don't sell things they can't deliver

it is literally in the agreement that any upgrades required to get to unsupervised fsd were included.

so you’d want them to drop like $2B on HW3 retrofits to just then replace hundreds of thousands of boards again in a few years to HW4.5/5/6?

Suck for him that I’m a broke post grad that’s going to med school and residency so I can’t afford a car for at least another 8 years. We shall see

No? They don’t know what hardware is necessary for L4, and they already made the mistake of predicting it once? Why anyone would expect a HW3 retrofit to be worked on before even Tesla knows what unsupervised FSD will require is beyond me.

was there an advertised ETA for unsupervised FSD when you bought it? or did you ignore your sales agreement, purchase description, etc., on the basis that the CEO made a forward-looking statement?

The product is already called full self driving. It’s not called future self driving.

where are they going?? are they getting crushed???

If that’s what it takes to honor a promise? Well uh yes

Just fix my god damn wipers. jfc

The product deployed was initially “Full Self Driving Beta”, and once released, was “Full Self Driving (Supervised)”. Is there a functional driving task that FSD currently doesn’t perform? It seems to perform the full range of driving tasks, enabling short and long drives with zero input.

That seems oddly specific.

If the promise was to make your car driverless, why would installing HW4 be honoring that promise if HW4 can’t make your car driverless?

Yeah, I remember that’s what they said when they upgraded mine to HW3.

It’s estimated that there were approximately 4 million HW3 cars sold during their run between 2019 and 2023. That doesn’t even include HW 2.5 cars. What’s a reasonable lifespan for a car? 6 years? 8 years? I’ll be generous and give you 20 years. If 4 million cars are on the road and age out over 20 years, that’s a loss of 550 cars PER DAY (assuming linear drop-off rates).

Cries in $TESLA dollars

He's waiting for us to die out from old age or be killed by HW3 unsupervised first to not have to do it.

My 2018 window sticker never said full self driving beta. You might be more recent to the Tesla community than I am. I know the full self driving beta that you’re talking to talking about that needed Tesla to opt to you into, but I’m talking about the $15,000 option as it came from the factory.

Fair. But I may get impatient and pull the trigger at 69. Meet in the middle.

Yea, the way I see it, I didn’t buy a piece of hardware technology, every car came with an “FSD” computer regardless of if you purchased FSD or not. So what I bought in my opinion is a licence. I should be able to own that licence completely independently of the vehicle.

They have to take on liability for unsupervised to work, and it will likely happen in stages (i.e. on highway only, under 40mph, etc). This is a long way out I suspect and they will likely charge more for unsupervised as they need financial incentives for accident/liability coverage

It most likely won’t be hw4. If hw4 is worked out, there won’t be a reason to retrofit hw4 to hw5 as it may very well not be needed. So hw4 would remain hw4 and people with hw3 will most likely get the hw5 retrofit. Just my opinion/logic so far.

I just did an 800 mile road trip with about 75% of it using FSD on HW3 and it was underwhelming. Couldn’t even do a decent job of maintaining speed and was constantly oscillating 2-5 MPH around my set point.

You should go get your sticker and tell me what was sold. I’ll wait.

I'm hoping by the time I need that, it'll be something I can do myself. If tesla wasn't so anti-repair with their software, it doesn't seem too terrible based on the service manuals. Certainly easier than replacing an engine

Typically, yeah. But these are $40k+ cars that were advertised to be fully capable of being autonomous. I love Tesla but you can't defend it.

I mean it would be great if they get unsupervised working on hw4. They’re certainly spending like they think it’s possible. I’m obviously skeptical, but they’re at least trying.

[https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/j6ic1h7jkpzxfpz6nlc96/Screenshot-2025-07-23-at-11.32.17-PM.png?rlkey=3x3w5zozyitmqye2l3q08li9j&st=0z964wot&dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/j6ic1h7jkpzxfpz6nlc96/Screenshot-2025-07-23-at-11.32.17-PM.png?rlkey=3x3w5zozyitmqye2l3q08li9j&st=0z964wot&dl=0) Why would I lie? I bought this car, you didn't. PLEASE, find the word beta anywhere on this window sticker STRIAGHT from Tesla.

Yeah, they tend to plateau around 70%. If you use it in the metroplex who cares.

No way this happens imo

Got me outta bed pulling up Gmail at 11:35pm! I don't need to make things up.

Nah the capital cost is already going to be too high.

Those are both things that people paid a lot of money for baked into the cost somewhere.

I don’t think this is true UNLESS Tesla starts sieving cash due to mismanagement of the brand, which is looking more and more likely. The class action lawsuit would probably compel a technical solution that’s much cheaper for them to implement.

Get a lawyer

👌

I bought it in 2024 dollars for the same price. Feel bad for you og folks.

👌

Wow. Yeah man it’s probably the biggest dip of any brand in history, you’re definitely not alone.

Awesome. As a paid FSD customer for almost 5 years with a HW3 Model 3, this means I may JUST miss out on this before I replace the car.

*_cries in HW 2.5_*

I do think they’re sitting on hw5 because they might need more sensors eventually, which would cause a massive perception problem for their brand. If they add lidar or whatever we will all lose our collective shit immediately.

That class action is gonna HIT

Lol same. 2019 model 3, 50k miles. Good luck elon.

Eh, but if it saves _them_ money… If it costs them $3000 in labor and parts to upgrade a car, so they offer you a $2000 discount on a new one instead And, if their profit margins/markup on the car is more than $2000, they’ll still make some profit on the sale too

I’m surprised there hasn’t been more media coverage on this issue

Yes, I have a 2020 MYP with HW3 and FSD. I plan to purchase a Juniper MYP when it comes out and I would like to transfer my 2020's FSD to it.

Waiting for the cars to die and you will buy another Tesla that already has hw4. Then the problem solves itself.

They were saying recently all the crazy optimizations they were doing to get the same framerate on a bigger model on HW4 haha. Not a good sign if they're already optimizing that hard

So sick of Tesla ignoring part of the customer base to keep working on the latest tech that hopefully, some day will actually do what they promised six years ago as coming by the end of the year. The code that‘s running autopilot in Europe is probably pre-covid. Tesla will never get approval for unsupervised anything here. Just focus on getting the supervised code running and approved here, upgrade our hardware and deliver. Or admit you cannot do it and offer full refunds on FSD.

5 years later …

right, but why would installing HW4 before HW4 is known to fulfill compute needs help to honor any promise? if they end up needing HW5, then your car with a retrofitted HW4 is no closer to being driverless than it was in HW3, is it?

I never thought you lied, I just assumed you forgot it was sold as a capability and not a feature.

Upgrade my HW3 and cameras. Add some other tech. I’ll gladly partake. It’s good now but I know it can become greater

That would make every other robotaxi supervised, including Waymo.

If they've promised FSD to HW3 vehicles then the only acceptable proposal would be upgrading all HW3 computers to HW4. If it isn't feasible then reimburse your customers.

But that is literally the definition of supervision. Safety monitor = supervisor. Once they are gone = unsupervised. I'm not sure why you are defending them on something so straightforward

How is Waymo supervised?

I’ve used FSD since the first public beta where I had to get 100 safety score to opt in. I’ve used it almost every day since and I would NEVER let my car drive around with no one in it. It can do some amazing things, it’s nowhere near the few Waymo rides I took to compare.

Suoervised FSD is so self contradictory it hurts my eyes.

Wasn't FSD Unsupervised even promised on HW1 or 2?

the hopium for Tesla is wild. sub 100 by jan 1

[deleted]

That’s not sueable Covid happen, values went up. Can’t prove that’s not the result of update xyz. Sure that sounds absurd, but can you prove it in a court of law that the update wasn’t a factor?

Safety monitor = supervised

I mean, they'll be able to achieve unsupervised FSD on HW5 FOR SURE though. Probably by the end of this year, maybe Q1 '26.

You got your product’s lifespan

I don't know about that. But what is clear is that Tesla is at the stage that Waymo was at a couple of years ago.

In other words: Dear HW3 owners, keep waiting in hope... Meanwhile your cars will become obsolete in one or other way - some will crash, some will brake down and repair will not be economical... We will figure it out - but by the time there will be only 3 HW3 cars left on the roads... Tesla should just move the FSD from the car to the owner account - that would not only silence all that, but also boost sales of new vehicles when people refresh their vehicles.

HW3 owners who purchased FSD are in a bit of a pickle. That must be why they allow transferring it to a new vehicle.

So Tesla robotaxis are crashing into firetrucks and driving on the wrong side of the street?

I like my stalks and I hate the redesign so I'll be keeping my 21 MY until the wheels fall off.

Subterfuge - we'll deal with it at some point. Too much lack of trust built up over time to place much credence in that. While I understand Tesla's need to get the company back into the black, they're also sitting on a record amount of unsold inventory - they could consider wiping out a tranche of their potentially liability by offering discounted upgrades with FSD transfers to HW3 owners.

Said a different way “if we wait long enough, there will so little HW3 cars with FSD that our CEO’s exaggerations  won’t matter”

Granted, I agree with most of what you say, but with say AI5 (HW5) level of GPUs, I do think that 3 or max 4 years from now we will have fully unsupervised FSD. Now, that doesn't really contradict your main point but technically yes I do believe we will have unsupervised FSD within 5 years. I am 100% certain of it.

Don't be a shill. We paid for a feature that was never delivered.

They're offering 0% apr right now if you transfer it

I wouldn't take a refund if it meant I had to give up supervised FSD. I may be in the minority here but I am happy with what I currently have and feel it's worth the cost. I have the hope for unsupervised in the future but would still pay the 8k for what I have.

What year is your car?

Because the safety monitors are going away. I love how this just isn’t sinking in for many of you.

They'll probably do something like this. I honestly can't imagine them spending the time on HW4 upgrades for HW3 cars. They probably don't even have a single person working on this right now.

And the day I earn billions I will be a billionaire. But for now I'm just a random schmuck. And yet I don't keep telling people "why isn't it sinking in that I will be a billionaire?"

They made public promises that they would release software features that would increase the value of the car. They have not released any new features for free that would increase the value of anything. They have not followed through on the actions they promised, and in fact have lowered the value of the car with some of the software changes they have made that have taken away some features. I'm not saying that it would absolutely win as a lawsuit, but it would be a valid lawsuit. I've had lunch with a couple of attorney friends and ask them about it, and they agree that it would be legally actionable, but not necessarily an easy one to get through the process.

Hmmm, yes. There is video evidence of a Robotaxi driving on the wrong side of the street and of a safety monitor stoping a Robotaxi from rear ending a delivery truck that was trying to park.

I don’t know about lifetime transfer but how about the ability to transfer until the promised unsupervised FSD is out. So if hw4 ends up not being the one and it’s hw5, you can transfer to that even if you already transferred from hw3 to hw4.

They want/need HW3 cars in the fleet. Why take the HW4 when it's not even unsupervised at this point? I own both, you aren't missing whatever you are imagining.

They already delivered FSD as it was stated in the contract. The ability to drive from point to point without intervention. Your car can do that now. Value is subjective. You wouldn't even get a response from Tesla's legal team.

LOL. They upgraded both of my 2018 cars to HW3 in my driveway.

This is where those with vision make the money. Because people like you just can't see what's happening until it's too late. You're crying about safety monitors meanwhile I'm buying up shares at a discount.

My car is going to fall apart before they do anything about us HW3 owners. This is what Tesla wants and it's infuriating.

Already, if starting a subscription, you have to buy any required hardware upgrade. Once they have taken the trouble to create a HW4/5 upgrade kit, it will likely eventually be made available as a paid option. The only difficulty will be in judging how many they need to make and therefore what the price will be.

2019, I think I got access to FSD in like late 2020z

I want them to double my trade-in offer to get into an HW4 car and let me transfer FSD to a used car. I have 29 months left on my battery warranty and the patience of a Terracotta Warrior.

So a capability, by definition, means it should deliver Full Self Driving. No beta, no qualifier. That's what I paid for, right there on the sticker. I hope that makes it clearer. It was nearly 5 years later that they introduced the FSD Beta program.

Already, every quarter they roll out the end date on FSD transfers. But you do have to buy a new car to get it. In the end, Tesla doesn't want to lose those millions of potential robotaxis, so they will bluff only so far to get people to pay for it before just making it a recall item. Right now they are not ready for millions of robotaxis around the world, so the standoff continues.

That's why. Your personal experience is with older hardware running older software. You're still running FSD v12. Try a 2025 Model Y on FSD v13 some time.

I mean… Autopilot on City Streets exists now? It works insanely well given the complete lack of availability from competitors. I have not been able to get SuperCruise, HDA2 or DrivePilot to simply navigate a *highway interchange* in any of my Turo rentals. My 2020 Model Y did this out of the box. It has never failed a single interchange.

I think it is more that HW4 is more power hungry so would need a new wiring harness, especially if new cameras are also needed. HW5 can probably be made in a low power version that still delivers more than HW4 and fits in the HW3 envelope.

In other words, im not buying another car for a long time. No way im touching the thought of trading in a car that worth an 1/8th its original cost, knowing the new car will lose just as much value. One thing tesla could do is on my prepaid fsd with a lifetime membership. That makes me a tesla owner for life. At this rate though, my 21 MYP will be my last tesla.

Yeah my comment was assuming they got there first

You're also describing what Waymos get up to and they are also caught on video. Autonomy is still in development across the board, but they are probably already safer than humans.

yea I mean that’s literally you saying you want them to gamble throwing away $2b and tons of engineering morale betting that HW4 will be enough. when they already lost the same bet on HW3. just so you can have something you can already trade-in and transfer for.

HW5 is coming in 2027 per the earnings call.

Unsupervised may require that we pay for insurance. Because FSD is already safer than humans, that policy should be cheaper than what we now pay.

True. I’m seeing those as promises Tesla made and followed up with it for their early owners. Even the FSD Transfer can be considered in that. I do still hope they make that last one permanent.

The car they sell when jumping ship will still exist. These things last a long time and even a HV battery replacement will be worth doing to put it on the Robotaxi network. Tesla doesn't want to give up on all those potential robotaxis.

2 weeks?

No. They got starry eyed after splitting from Mobileye in 2016 and built their own system.

FSD should attach to our accounts. If I buy a Tesla, wherever it comes from, my FSD is there and ready to go

Yeah, look up what they’d have to do to migrate a HW3 car to HW4. It involves essentially replacing the cameras, rewiring the car, and reworking many other areas. I promise you they won’t doing that in your driveway. Or ever.

I was pointing out they ARE spending that money and they MIGHT get there. Not that I thought that was likely.

A friend has a brand new model X and another has a brand new model Y. Rode and drove both because I’m the “Tesla guy” for this lady and it’s about the same. EDIT: it also doesn’t change the fact that what I purchased was ADVERTISED to be completely unsupervised use as a robo-taxi or send it to go pick up your kids from school level of autonomy and after 6 years I have gotten maybe half of that. It’s literally false advertising. This isn’t like a burger joint showing you the best picture that they can on the menu only to have the teenager in the back give you something that’s “close” in look and exact in ingredients. This is multiple thousands of dollars invested into a suite of hardware that was advertised as ONLY needing government approval before being unleashed and revolutionizing the world of personal transportation.

Yeah, it'll probably never be as easy as I'd want it to be. I just hate when companies won't sell you the part or software you need to do something yourself. I just looked and it might actually be doable DIY today as long as you can source a battery pack though. Not for the average person, but for someone dedicated enough. The parts catalog says the battery pack isn't available for online order if I try to add it to my card since it's a hazardous material, and I'd be surprised if the local service center would order one for me for pickup... To actually replace the battery though you mainly need Toolbox access, which you can pay for, and some sort of equipment to help physically swap the battery packs since they're over 1000 lbs. The rest of the process is a little bit of HV safety stuff and 300+ steps of general car repair type of stuff.

With software there’s no such thing as done. That’s why the comment about doing HW3 after it’s “done” means it’ll never happen.

uh, why would you? your monthly entitles you 30 days of functionality at a time. this is like saying you assume you retain some value of the asset after you’re done leasing or renting it? your car came with an upgrade called “FSD capability”, which you specifically opted *not to buy*, and then you expect <checks notes> your car has the capability of self driving?

The car was advertised as capable of X. Turns out the car isn't capable of X without a hardware upgrade. The fact Tesla makes it possible for people to buy the feature at any time is what fucks them.

End of 2026, I thought I heard. Yeah, that's bad news.

Well, turns out what actually binds Tesla is contractual obligations to customers who purchased the package. You can only buy or sub to “FSD (Supervised)” currently, so anyone who has paid for this has already had the fully described product delivered. Musk or a corporate blog can make incorrect forward-looking statements. Being wrong is allowed, and it’s pretty clear when you compare and contrast what Tesla does with 8-12 cameras and what all its competitors do with 8-12 cameras, that full autonomy was certainly intended with HW3. Once Tesla achieves that autonomy, you could reasonably argue they are obligated to deliver it to anyone who created a contract with them to specifically receive autonomy. But buying a Tesla and unchecking the “FSD capability” option is specially opting *out* of receiving autonomy. It’s precisely the opposite of entering into an agreement to receive future functionality.

This will be decided in a class action in the future. "Forward looking statements" vs public promises by the CEO + direct advertisement of specific features. The promise was level5 autonomy. The fact you say the product was delivered tells everyone readying that you are not a serious person.

As a software engineer, makes sense - "Make it work, make it right, make it fast." Get it working fully on HW4 without nearly as many hardware constraints so you know what the full picture looks like, then optimize for HW3 so you can be strategic about that optimization knowing the full picture.

It's like you're saving money by paying new retail and new depreciation!

right? because apparently there's something preventing a hw3->hw4 upgrade from being possible

This is how you build brand reputation!

Yeah it seems possible, just unlikely they’d go for it given the bad PR they’d get from your random incompetent diy guy dying.

It’s funny you think HW4 won’t have the same exact thing

There’s no way I’m buying another Tesla after how we’re (hw3) being treated. It’s insulting. They have been receiving TB’s each month of driving data and video from my car.

Genuinely curious. If you think that Robotaxi is the future, why aren't you interested in Waymo? Which has 2 years headstart on Tesla.

Gaslighting tactics

Are people seriously replacing their cars after just 6 years? That's such an absolute waste.

> What’s a reasonable lifespan for a car? 6 years? 8 years? I’ll be generous and give you 20 years. For an ICE car I'd say after 15-20 years, you got to replace the expensive parts. So you're keeping it for sentimental reasons. For an EV its unknown if you got to replace the entire battery pack after 10 or 20 or 30 years, and how expensive this would be (consider recycling, and not Hyundai charging 60k)

So how does Sawyer actually get his information? He simply says "Tesla says...." but what does that actually mean? Tesla has no PR department so who or what is he actually talking to?

That makes sense to me, but I’m also a little suspicious they’re waiting until a lawsuit happens to minimize how many people will get a pay out. The fact that engineers aren’t slowly coming up with a more concrete plan in the background is a little worrying. Ie: planning a new cpu unit with power and thermal constraints that can slot into the HW3 location. I read about some AI4 connections not fitting the HW3 unit but adapters can be designed to fit or as part of the updated unit if space is a premium.

I’m worried about this the most. I have a recent 2025 Model 3 ai4, I’m worried it will get left behind quicker than my 2019 HW3 Model 3 I traded in. Tesla should be capable of handling this situation as they are the auto makers and chip makers in this instance.

I’m worried that’s what they’re waiting for. A lawsuit, and they’re delaying as much as possible so either refunds or lawsuits a cost significantly less with due to less HW3 on the road.

Because Waymo will only ever work on pre-mapped roads while Tesla is aiming for general autonomy that will work anywhere.

My 2017 MS 100D with FSD (paid for by a previous owner thankfully) if going up be around until the wheels fall off.  My bet is that the cheapest eventual option will be for Tesla to offer HW3+FSD owners a fully new HW? car. The new car will not be eligible for free FSD hardware upgrades. Although for me I'd be happy to see FSD at all in the UK!

[deleted]

"Operating" is very generous. It's an invite-only system and even with the very small number of participants there are so many issues. [Here's an article from a couple of weeks ago](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna215909). I genuinely don't know how anyone that uses even the latest FSD stack can say this is anywhere near ready for unsupervised operation, and I don't say this as an FSD or Tesla hater. I love FSD, I use it all of the time... but there is not a chance in hell I'm letting it drive me without being supervised. It's put me in a lot of questionable situations that would have turned dangerous if I didn't intervene and I don't believe this is an issue that HW5 is going to magically solve because it's an issue with the stack's decision making itself.

We have Supervised FSD done and out in customer hands. Recently Tesla did an Unsupervised FSD Delivery to a customer. Personally I'll call it "done" when the customer car can do the Unsupervised FSD. I do agree that software is never "done", but get me to Unsupervised FSD as shown in that customer delivery and then upgrade the HW3 car with what's needed for that.

It is easier to defend the company's stake in HW4 since it's actively being used by Robotaxi, albeit still pending another performance jump with a bigger neural net.

Yay that means will see a HW3 update in 6-14 years

My 2018 Tesla got several new features through updates that did not exist at the time of sale: sentry mode did not exist, dash cam did not exist, all the gaming stuff did not exist, it gained Apple Music and Spotify, smart summon came through updates, etc. I am pretty sure that at least one OTA update resulted in a small range increase even somehow.

It might only be the HW3 owners that paid in full for FSD at time of purchase

I’m curious what they could do with the increased compute of HW5 but on existing HW3 cameras

That’s the best bet but I wouldn’t hold my breath. If they’re not handling HW3 upgrades until HW4 is unsupervised, it’s a false premise. I don’t believe unsupervised FSD is possible on HW4. To avoid the self-created HW3 headache, they only sell “FSD (Supervised)” now.

I’d fall under that category so of course I’d be happy enough with that—but historically it seems they’d lean toward nothing at all

I’m in the category of people who paid up front for FSD on HW2 and got free upgraded to HW3 already so I think historically they lean toward making things right for that group.

🤞🏼

I’m seeing a lot of HW3 FSD car’s batteries go bad with this last update. I’d like to think it’s a coincidence, but I’m starting to think it may be cheaper to disable to cars than retrofit the computers.

So, never?

Since the take rate was fairly low life time FSD makes the most sense. If they nail it we’d be pennies compared to their profits.

Nobody has factored in washing the car, vacuuming out the interior, cleaning the insides, tire inspections for wear and replacements for safety. All this is needed for a good ride experience!

They are all still under warranty in terms of time, and I doubt they've hit the miles where the the battery is no longer covered.

No, IIRC it was HW3 that Elon said paraphrased: “Every car sold today will be able support FSD” that has later been revised with paraphrasing: “it will be painful but we will upgrade [implied hw3]”

I know it may disapoint HW3 owners but it's the reasonable thing to do, especially if they will give you a free hardware update to be fully unsupervised. It should be worth the wait.

It's super convenient, for them.

Can we sue after 10 years of open-ended broken promise?

So when this class action law suit goes through. When can I get my $20 bucks

Some people just won't accept that we hate the buttons and want the stalks back lol It was the same story with them trying to force the Yoke on people.

Yes, that was part of the contract for mine(bought in 2017). Not sure about after that.

I would bet hw7 to never unless they add lidar.

We're never getting fully functional FSD

I have a 2017 model s with only 40k miles, unlimited super charging and free connectivity. I am going to drive this thing into the ground, store it in a field and tow it in if needed to make them honor their agreement.

what? in 2017 they said you’d get each and every iteration of the hardware? they said you’d get the hardware needed for unsupervised FSD. since they *don’t know if HW4 can do that yet*, why would spending $2B to retrofit cars when they don’t even know if that will make them unsupervised help anyone? you understand that’s just going to make everything take even longer, right? right?

You think that's going to stop me? I'll be buying one of the drop ins from a 3rd party that costs like $10,000...

You're gonna want the upgrade to hw5 at this rate...

If they work it out with HW4 I'd wager they'll make a more efficient variant of HW4 (either with reduced clocks or with a smaller lithography, or both) that can actually be retrofitted into the HW3 vehicles. It wouldn't make much sense for them to give AI5 to HW3 owners if they didn't need it, especially since they could then add functionality or improve capabilities to further market new vehicles with the AI5 to HW3 and HW4 owners. AI hardware (high bandwidth memory and performant silicon) are expensive so I speculate that wherever unsupervised gets worked out is where HW3 will be retrofitted to, so as to keep costs to a minimum and margins at the maximum if they end up charging.

👌

HW3 get Fked again

You wana play the stubborn game? 2 can play at that

Nobody?

Absolutely. Like buying a song in the Apple ecosystem.

[deleted]

Understandable but no one is happy about it.

My Madre paid for it. Back in the good days when I didn’t think of expensive tires and potholes ruining my month

Yup. But I keep cars for 10+ years, so I'm still hoping he is going to have to upgrade my 3.

So…. Never.

I’m hoping they offer the retrofit or an option to get like 20k off a new car instead (plus trade in value of your HW3 car). Only in my dreams..

Translation: Next quarter we're going to be struggling with cashflow so we can't spend all our money retrofitting HW3 vehicles with HW4 boards.

Well, how did they make the determination last time to do the update?

Yes. I remember the nonsense BMW tried about the heated seats and other stuff. Just trying it out imo to see who bites. Our old ICE Lexus 200 had old maps when we bought it 2nd hand. $300 AuD ish to upgrade the map software at the dealer. A big no to that, just used the phone. I have a 22 M3 with the Ryzen hardware. I waited for it to be in the car. Yes: it is hard to adjust to the reality that these cars are now like our phones.

We've paid like $10k which they've been sitting on for 6 years or more. If it cost $2-$3k to retrofit .. they're still ahead by a long way.

they guessed. they were wrong, and wasted a bunch of money updating HW2 cars. they should repeat this error?

“sitting on” lmfao have you ever tried to calculate payroll for the Autopilot team? just even a rough napkin number.

you understand they more risks they take with money and engineering resources, the less likely it is you will ever get your L4 retrofit, right?

Well, I'm in Australia so have received zero benefit.

Retrofit or refund plus interest. Either one. Luckily we have strong consumer laws in Oz.

Sounds like they want to burn as much time on hw3 folks as possible so they dont have offer as many free upgrades to hw4.

😂 if you have hw3 just know you’ll neeed hw4 and based on my experience with the first car to get “AI4” I can unequivocally state that it’s going to be a while before (if) they can get it that far on AI4. If there was no concern they wouldn’t be working on HW5 would they? Elon claims it’s over powered but he’s said that about 3 and 4, didn’t take long to have to use both modules in HW3 just to keep FSD working prior to 4 and it won’t be long before HW4 doesn’t have redundancy either IMO. It’s Tesla, we will find out by 2030 I’m sure. I feel bad for anyone that buys these things. On my second lease and the ability to get the new stuff in a 3 year cycle is amazing, we are basically driving iPhones anyhow. So many things the Intel atom can’t do let alone FSD abilities. That said HW4 is the most dangerous thing Tesla has pushed out- the FSD code I mean. Need to post my clip of my car taking an optimized route by ignoring a simply left hand turn (every time) and then going for a u-turn but instead of doing a u-turn it drives into oncoming traffic (wrong way signs everywhere) and cuts its way across to where that left lane is…. Absolutely wild and even more wild that I can reproduce it on demand in any condition.

This suggests to me a lack of confidence at Tesla that HW4 will be capable of delivering FSD - Unsupervised. If Tesla were confident that HW4 will be capable of Unsupervised, there would be no technology reason to not start retrofitting HW3 cars now. It’s not as if this high valuation company does not have the financial resources to do two things at once. Tesla’s denial of HW4 to HW3 PLUS FSD-Capability owners suggests to me that either Tesla lacks confidence in HW4’s abilities or simply delay, delay, delay of commitments to HW3 PLUS FSD-Capability owners.

@Adencor We already know what hardware is required for Unsupervised FSD. Musk told us years ago… HW2 was sufficient. Then he told us HW3 was sufficient. If we couldn’t believe him then, why should we believe him now?

Yea as it turns out, being wrong is legally allowed. What you’re not understanding is that statements made by an executive are not a contractual obligation. They represent *intent* to fulfill, not a legal obligation to do so. Nevertheless, they’ve also indicated they still intend to fulfill this by bringing UFSD hardware capable hardware retrofits to customers anyway. I’m not sure what you want, other than changes to the underlying nature of reality?

“FSD transfers” will remain in place until morale improves.

Tesla will sell automatic inspection and replacement stations.

chat we're cooked

RIP

Real

Same with me, but I'm on 116K now

You made her pay for FSd in full?

Bro if I could predict the future it wouldn’t have happened

I’m not talking about how long fsd took to get to where it is working today, I’m talking about making your mom pay an extra 8k on a car she was buying you.

I didn’t make her do anything. I asked and she said yes. 🤷‍♂️

This is what I have been arguing for. I get why they don't want to do this once FSD is truly out, but it would generate an \*immense\* amount of goodwill to let those who bought into the dream at least be able to take it forward until it's realized. Most of us are completely ok with it taking longer than expected. I'm pretty sure this would suffice for nearly everyone out there.

word to the wise: just keep in mind there is legal deadline to file suit (called a statute of limitation). While you're waiting to see what happens with HW3, you might just blow past the 2 or 3 year deadline by which time it won't matter if he swaps out HW3 because you won't be able to do anything about it.

heard rumors about they'd like to do complimentary update for hw3 FSD paid off vehicles from inside people.