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\* for people who already own FSD on HW3. The title is paraphrasing what Elon said. I can't edit the title but here is the full verbatim quote for accuracy: Question: "Will HW3 be capable of Level 5 FSD?" Elon: "We're not 100% sure, but as Ashok mentioned, by some measures HW4 has really several times the capability of HW3. It's easier to get things to work with HW4 and then it takes a lot of effort to sort of squeeze that functionality into HW3. There is some chance that HW3 does not achieve a safety level that allows for unsupervised FSD. There is some chance of that. And if that turns out to be the case we will upgrade those who have bought HW3 FSD for free. And we have designed the system to be upgradeable. So it's really just a "switch out the computer" type of thing. The cameras, they are capable. Anyway we don't actually know the answer to that but if it does turn out we will make sure we take care of those who bought FSD on HW3."
He said they would upgrade Model S Plaid HW to support Steam, but then just deprecated Steam instead of honoring the retrofit.
Tesla is back baby
"If it turns out HW3 can't achieve unsupervised FSD with an appropriate safety level" by when, I wonder? Perhaps a high school student in the year 2080 could get FSD to work on HW3 with the tools they'll have then.
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Keyword is "appropriate". They can claim it's as safe as the average of single driver out there and not have to upgrade in terms of accidents per mile. Or measure by interventions.
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It makes sense since it is pointless to upgrade HW3 to HW4 if only basic AP is being used.
It was not obvious until he said it this call. In fact he dodged this question at the Cybercab event.
Sounds like the legacy Model S/X that was upgraded to HW3 is going to be out of luck.
Cybercab made it obvious. They want to lead with current vehicles as taxis. That's income for Tesla. It makes no sense not to make a retrofit. I suppose providing it free is new, but the fact an upgrade would be available was pretty much a foregone conclusion after we robot.
Tesla owner since 2014 here. Still waiting for the onboard SDK that was “a few months away” since, well, 2014
Back at what? More empty promises?
Interesting that he says the HW3 cameras are surely good enough, and they’d only upgrade the computer
The form factor of the HW4 computer is different than HW3. So they need to basically stick new electronics in a form that bolts up to a HW3 car.
I think "turns out" is also relevant. It means that they could wait 2-3 years from now before making that judgement. So the number of cars with HW3 that paid for it outright, still own the car, and feel like losing their car for a month can get the upgrade. It will probably be few people that ever get it. The type of person that bought FSD is going to be wanting the latest tech and will be trading up anyway.
Presumably regulators (NHTSA) will determine whether HW3’s safety level is “appropriate” to operate unsupervised
I genuiinely do not understand why people are shitting on this. They finally said what we'd been prodding them for the last year and half about. They are committed to making right by early adopters who paid for FSD already. You can interpret that however negatively you want but paying for FSD in 2016 I personally am excited to see something positive and finally see them address the question directly. I got a free upgrade to HW3/cameras and I will be getting another free upgrade if needed to see unsupervised driving on my 8 year old Tesla. I think that's pretty cool.
Yes, it would be dumb to use hw4 from hw4 vehicles. Use cheaper, newer, smaller hardware to make it fit instead.
Aaaaaand there it is lol
Me too. And he meant it. My model 3 HW2 was upgraded to HW3 for free, no questions asked.
What about before HW3? I have 2017 MX with FSD bought outright.
FSD stays with the vehicle. What you’re saying only works if they trade-in their vehicle to Tesla and transfer FSD over to the new vehicle. If you sell your old Tesla in the used car market, the new owner will still own FSD and can demand a HW4 retrofit for free.
Sounds like I’m getting a free HW4 upgrade! I have bought FSD on my 2018 Model 3 and intend to drive the wheels off of it.
Yes, my bet is once AI5 comes out they will make a downclocked version that can achieve HW4 performance in HW3's form factor and cooling.
So let me get this straight, Musk is saying if you bought fsd on HW3 car, they will upgrade to hw4 if necessary? Small problem though, *nobody* is spending 15k USD anymore on FSD. People much prefer the monthly subscription, and for those, Musk will not upgrade to HW4.
>And we have designed the system to be upgradeable. So it's really just a "switch out the computer" type of thing. That's not what we've been told that past while. We were told that the HW4 computer is a different form factor and won't fit. But ok.
The HW2 to HW3 upgrade I already got was a 30 minute thing done by mobile service in my driveway. They're not going to upgrade the cameras, just swap the computer. It'll be easy and fast. I expect they will come out with a retrofit after AI5 is available. With AI5 they will probably be able to fit HW4 level performance into the HW3 form factor and available cooling.
FSD is $8k.
Hell yeah !
Yes, we've been talking for a while of a plug compatible HW4 level computer with HW3 cameras as a kind of HW3.5 for a while. I hope it happens, I bounce between a HW3 and HW4 car and the HW4 car definitely has better FSD.
Lots of nuance but still an important public statement to finally make I would say.
Why do you believe they'll really do this
I'm sure they're going to try to run out the clock, so to speak and try both to stall and to get people with FSD/HW3 to upgrade to new cars and do a transfer or whatever.
Just hold onto your car until 2040 and they will upgrade you
what about the ones we're suscribed on monthly basis?
How about they just do the retrofit anyway and stop having to write two batch of code?
Most people will not pay even $8k for vaporware. It's a lot of money for something that might never work. When it works, I see people using the monthly subscription mainly.
So will supervised FSD be cheaper for HW3 owners?
What SDK are you referring to? Searching online didn’t yield too much
Well yeah but that's before people started talking about class action
I don't think they will ever sell supervised FSD separately from unsupervised FSD. There's only one option, FSD, and it will include a computer upgrade if your car needs it.
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lol I assume the same but they should at least offer the option to retrofit for a charge
They don’t do mobile anymore. Tried it with my 2018 3. It took them 2 full days. Techs said that it is “a lot more complex” than swapping the chips and they have had a few that needed to be flatbedded to the SC after being bricked during the upgrade. I’ll be VERY surprised if they make a custom chip that can retrofit HW3 with HW4 or better specs. That is an incredible expense for a handful of cars. Much more likely a large discount on an upgrade or other less expensive bribe to go away.
I recall he claimed you couldn't upgrade from HW3 to HW4 because there were differences in the systems.
Certainly you can't just shove the current HW4 computer in where the HW3 one is. I expect that after AI5 comes out they will produce a retrofit board with a downclocked AI5 chip that achieves HW4 level performance within the HW3 form factor and cooling capability.
Indeed and if they offer free FSD transfer AND free unlimited supercharging like I have on my 2017 S, I’ll probably bite on a new 3 just for the warranty alone.
When enough of the cars are off the road and we’ve moved on to our second or third Tesla
He has said similar things in the past, he said no needed upgrades at one point. You just never know with Elon... But it's in their best interest to upgrade everyone for higher quality data... And that should feed higher quality updates. Let's hope this one holds true.
Yeah if it's cheaper for them to use levers like that to move people over they'll definitely do it.
So that's still a bit of an assumption. He's hoping that the HW3 cameras will be good enough for level 5 no matter what. Even the HW4 cameras get blinded by the sun more than human eyes do, so the question is out on whether they will ever be able to perform level 5, much less the older generation of cameras. And I think once they try solving some of the hardest problems, like avoiding road issues like potholes or dead animals, especially at speed, the higher resolution of the HW4 cameras will be critical for quickly determining whether there's a real problem or not. They'll probably see far more false positives with the HW3 cameras due to the lack of detail in its video.
I bet they will offer a deal for current subscribers where you get a free upgrade as long as you sign a contract to stay subscribed for another year or two, or pay an early termination fee, like phone upgrades. But honestly, we're talking about a hypothetical scenario where unsupervised FSD has actually been achieved, for real (on HW4). Wouldn't it be worth full price at that point?
It's simple, if the class action lawsuit looks more risky then the upgrade will come. And they might try to get away with an install fee or something. If the legal threat isn't large enough, no it won't happen.
It won't be a custom chip, just a regular AI5 chip, but downclocked for lower power consumption/heat generation. Even downclocked it should beat current HW4's performance. That's weird that they don't do mobile service computer upgrades anymore. Mine went fine back in 2020.
Same 2018 model 3, but I think we are at least 5 years from them determining it to "not be feasible". By that time, how much range will I have left? I am down to 85% original capacity at 160k miles
[https://youtu.be/n7X4TRBazvo?t=225](https://youtu.be/n7X4TRBazvo?t=225)
The HW 4 chips are different sizes with different connection locations. Unlikely the HW 5 is backward compatible to 3 instead of 4.
Oooh an SDK for 3P apps that run on the car. Yeah that would be great. Right now I’ve been just building little web apps and using them from the browser - so I’m kinda waiting for this too. I imagine most of their software isn’t well isolated from each other in the car, so proper sandboxing for 3P apps might not be trivial. Given their focus is on automation, I doubt we’ll see this anytime soon :(
Another free upgrade you say? Nah I don’t think so. 2.5 > 3 was easy because the cameras were the same. 3 > 4 is not even close at this point and for example, they’d need to remove windshield for the forward looking camera. Not to mention the B pillar camera issue. It can’t see far down enough because of the obstructed view. I’ll make a wager with you, $100 days in 5 years you won’t have unsupervised FSD in your 2016 Tesla. Why are we shitting on this? Because of so many lies and broken promises: Cybertruck 80k 500 miles? Lies. Full self driving by 2016,2017,2018, etc. Solar roof production timelines AND cost Cyberpunk on Teslas with steam Autopilot cross country road trips Model 3 robotaxi Roadsters Do I really need to keep going?
Look what happened with HW2/2.5 owners - gotta cough up money to upgrade to HW3 (if you want to subscribe) even though those owners were also promised FSD in the past
I'm not sure you understand the difference between chips and boards and computers. They're not going to rip the chips off the board and solder in new ones. They will replace the motherboard. Just as they did with HW2 -> HW3. They will make a custom motherboard in the HW3 board's form factor with an AI5 chip on it. The AI5 chip will be a normal, non-custom AI5 chip but they will run it at a lower power level than new AI5 vehicles (robotaxi), so it won't have AI5-level performance, but it should still be able to beat HW4's performance and be much more efficient (= less cooling needed).
For real. By the time they achieve level 5 from a technical and regulatory perspective, most of the HW3 cars will be recycled into Coke cans. Assuming they ever achieve it.
How so?
I’m at 72k miles now, but adding them at about 20k a year. I think mine has 5 years left.
>That's not what we've been told that past while. We were told that the HW4 computer is a different form factor and won't fit. But ok. HW4 is still using 12nm lithography and has a higher thermal envelope. So they wouldn't be able to just install HW4 boards into HW3 cars. But HW5 may use a more advanced lithography, allowing them to achieve better performance at lower thermals. I can see them install an underclocked HW5 into HW3 cars if needed.
I was a HW2.5 owner and got the HW3 upgrade free, and I'll get this upgrade free too if necessary. All you have to do is buy FSD now and you are guaranteed any necessary upgrade for free.
In my opinion, the main question is: “At what point will Tesla assume full liability for at least some part of “FSD”?” i.e., Highway driving in clement weather conditions? That seems to be the lowest hanging fruit in my opinion. At this point, I have little confidence that Tesla will do even that any time soon. On a slightly different note… Elon seems to suffer from the idea that because something should in theory be possible, that it must be both possible and practical, without necessarily considering the details. (Humans rely mostly on vision and brains to drive, ergo a car with cameras and sufficiently powerful computers should be capable of self driving… without realizing that cameras and human eyes have different capabilities… I’m definitely oversimplifying this part but oh well, I’m not currently controlling a 1.5 tonne robot capable of killing its occupants and bystanders)
Highly doubtful. What happens when there is HW5 and HW4 goes the same route as HW3?
I need more fine print conditions of what being "appropriate" and timeline of upgrade. If it takes 5 years to confirm what's appropriate and another 10 years to offer upgrade, this is basically their waiting game.
Great news for hardware 3 owners. Hopefully this becomes an optional upgrade soon. Also, many of us who did not purchase FSD would gladly pay to upgrade to HW4.
>The HW2 to HW3 upgrade I already got was a 30 minute thing done by mobile service in my driveway. They're not going to upgrade the cameras, just swap the computer. It'll be easy and fast. I had my 2018 upgraded, the tech said it was a 2 hour process. So $200 of labor and probably $200 for the computer.
>That's not what we've been told that past while. ***We were told that the HW4 computer is a different form factor and won't fit.*** But ok. ... >Well yeah but that's before people started talking about class action Yeah, they're changing their answer due to ***concern over class action***. They'll "make it fit".
It's possible HW4 won't be enough either. But they have already sold FSD with the promise that every current car will be able to support it, so if it needs HW5 they will be forced to upgrade everyone to HW5. You have to remember, we're talking about a scenario where they have *actually achieved* unsupervised FSD. In this scenario they are going to make *so much money* it's silly, and I doubt they will feel too bad about being forced to upgrade some older cars at a slight loss. Also consider that they have not recognized all the revenue from past FSD sales yet, so that deferred revenue money is still available to fund retrofit costs without hurting quarterly financials.
More importantly can I get a MCU upgrade retrofit...
case in point ITT that redditors will always find a way to twist news like this into yet another negative (???)
> so if it needs HW5 they will be forced to upgrade everyone to HW5. Ha! That is not going to happen. Musk has been making promises for years and not delivering. I have HW4 and have ZERO expectations that it will ever. be anything more than Level 2 and zero expectations they will upgrade my hardware for free. Love FSD. Use every day when in the states. I just wish I could get FSD here in Bangkok. I will likely buy a Seal instead of another Tesla. I plan on getting the 2025 that comes with LiDAR. But here is not like the states. They do NOT sell 2025s until, 2025. They laughed at me when I explained how it works in the US.
I already got the free HW2 -> HW3 upgrade. It was real. Legally Tesla will be in hot water if they achieve unsupervised FSD but refuse to upgrade older FSD cars for free, given their constant statements that all existing cars have all the hardware to support it.
I can’t imagine a retrofit design. I’ll throw in a guess that they’ll provide coupon codes for FSD for free on their next purchase of a HW4 vehicle.
They can probably design a HW3.5 or something that is compatible just for the update, if they have to.
But what if you wanted to subscribe instead?
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Here's to hoping like they did with the model S When they switched from Intel to Ryzen the retrofit wasn't possible cause the connectors are different. So maybe all Ryzen computers are upgradable.
>And I doubt they will use an underclocked one, **unless there is a significant reason to do so.** As I said, thermals.
Why though? There are hundreds of thousands-millions of HW3 vehicles on the road. If the value of a vehicle becoming robotaxi-capable is, say, $50,000, and it costs, say, $2000 to upgrade one, there's so much economic value in upgrading those cars. Remember they're getting a revenue share on driverless rides.
>Elon seems to suffer from the idea that because something should in theory be possible, that it must be both possible and practical I'd say Elon is doing the opposite of suffering from this idea. He's suffering all the way to the bank lmao.
Is your HW4 on a Model Y by chance?
>They want to lead with current vehicles as taxis. Sure, but that doesn't make it realistic. For example, the cameras still have issues with glare in direct sunlight and dirt or snow blocking them in bad conditions. How will a computer upgrade fix that? Are they getting retrofitted cameras too? I find the responses to the event fascinating because to me, the event was just a higher profile restatement of Elon's general fever dream promises from the last ten years. I've used the FSD trial for two days and I'm not willing to turn it back on any more because it requires frequent intervention, but they think that this system is ready to operate without supervision? Even the promise to launch ride hailing "next year" pending regulatory approval is a repeat of previous promises! A literal repeat!
I’m sure they’ll figure out a way to extract your money one way or another
>At this point, I have little confidence that Tesla will do even that any time soon. To be honest, I don't think this promise to upgrade the computers is even intended to do anything but put off the inevitable lawsuit from people overpromised FSD on their cars by a little more. He's said that they'll make it right if somebody can't use unsupervised/actual FSD on HW3 but people can on HW4. And when, unsurprisingly to anyone paying attention, it's 2028, FSD still needs supervision and doesn't have regulatory approval to operate without a driver and they're releasing HW6? Will the upgrades still be rolling? This is one of the most fascinating companies I've ever seen. Some really cool real work that looks like dross because they keep telling us that any minute now it will do a million times more, and SOMEHOW the CEO can say literally anything without ever being held accountable.
Was there a suit filed for that? I’m surprised they seem to have gotten away with it since it was prominently advertised, but also most people who would have cared probably also own steam decks
Fair enough. I guess I’m still interpreting his statements more charitably than he deserves.
What cars have which HW? I’m assuming the acronym is hardware. I have a Standard Range 22 Model 3 what would mine be?
You’re probably right.
I’d virtually guarantee you’d have to pay for the parts and labor to upgrade.
If it can actually be done I’m sure they will. Similar to HW 2.5 to 3
Subscription folks were never promised FSD. you never bought it.
In the past I thought they said, and seemed correct, that HW3 -> HW4 wasn't possible because it's not just the compute unit, but also the wiring and the sensors as well? Maybe I'm mistaken and there is a reasonable upgrade path, but I could have sworn they've said it couldn't be done before.
The current board doesn’t fit, that doesn’t mean they can’t produce a retrofit board for existing HW3 cars. It’d just have to be custom for those cars. Simply undervolting and downclocking HW4 chips (with proper binning) may be enough to get them into the power envelope of HW3 cars. Even if it was only 90% of the compute of a native HW4 car that’s a lot better than HW3
And here is thought Tesla's FSD was just around the corner, surely sometime next year... Turns out they don't even know the hardware specs yet.
They’ll automatically upgrade you to HW10, just to get ahead of things.
Anyone notice what car they use in the earnings call video? Maybe a Juniper? https://preview.redd.it/yfn6hvfmqlwd1.jpeg?width=3120&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9e843702c1f243f5fd3e433ee7ce309c64db5aeb
Yeah, so just like it was with HW2.5 —> 3. If you have the older HW, and purchase FSD, the HW upgrade (assuming it has been determined to be necessary) will be included.
That is a misunderstanding of what is being told, and what Elon just said. It is 100% true that HW4 is incompatible, [I posted why here](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/1elgf7a/2024265_fsd_12512_official_tesla_release_notes/lh1vt7r/). HW4 is simply not compatible with HW3 cars. What Elon just said was that HW3 would be upgraded if it is necessary to do so. He did not say that HW4 would be put in HW3 cars, he said HW3 cars would be upgraded. HW3 cars, to get to HW4 equivalency in compute, would likely use a completely different package which is within the power envelope of HW3. Probably when there is a HW4 revision (die shrink or something) or using the next generation HW5 chips with more performance per watt than what HW4, thus getting current HW3 cars to be equal compute to hw4.
yeah, they'd assuredly just make a part that has the same hardware but works with the old space constraints. no reason to do all that work in advance if they still think HW3 can go the distance
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FSD Gate
I wonder how many years after HW4 is unsupervised we will have to wait to get our upgrades. 🤦🏽♂️
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Yeah, that’s what I figured. Something like HW 3.5 or some kind of MacGyver using old HW4 chips when 5 becomes the current in-production hardware
I bought a used model 3 with hwd 3 FSD. Does this apply?
My car does exceptionally well with glare and it's done super well in heavy rains and north east winters. Robotaxi doesn't have to operate in all weather to operate conditionally in good weather. That said, I share your doubts about hw4 delivering more than limited unsupervised capability. But even if it takes a sensor retrofit as well, it's likely cheaper than building whole new cars.
Agree, I thought it was something with the wires or wire harness, not with the actual brains.
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Well let's pretend that Tesla actually ends up offering free HW3 -> HW4 upgrades. If it's anything like Tesla Solar, you can expect a reservation for the service appointment 9 - 12 months out.
HW4, regardless of packaging, can't be put in legacy cars. None of them can support the power demands of the chips alone. To put HW4 chips into a HW3 car would be illegal as the wiring of the cars cannot handle that amount of power going through them. Legacy S/X also cannot support the cooling requirements that would be needed. They can't reuse old HW4 chips, a new design is required that has less power consumption. Luckily, there are many ways to achieve that. If they want a the hw4 chip in legacy S/X, at the very minimum it would require a new die shrunk chip from 12nm to at least 4nm. At which point, it makes more sense to just use a downclocked next gen chip which can offer more ppw and binning them for less performance than running 2 different chip production designs.
lol, this isn't a bottle of ketchup, that's definitely not going to fly with customers or the courts.
Same as hw2.5 people, have to pay to upgrade.
What about the cameras? You upgrading those too?
>Even the HW4 cameras get blinded by the sun more than human eyes do, Based on what? That doesn't seem to be right.. I've looked at footage from times where I was struggling to see even with coverage from the sun shade and it was plenty clear. They certainly have limitations in their hardware but I do not think this is one of them.
lol, something tells me we’ll be looking at another “It depends on what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is.” Or in this case the definition of “appropriate” .
Designing a retrofit is one thing, installing it on thousands of millions (or even a small fraction of them) is another. I just don’t see it happening.
Bro, it has been flying with customers for years. I’ll believe a class action when I see one. Disclaimer: I paid for FSD in 2018 like a boob.
Uh the refreshed 3?
It’s honestly not even worth using. SteamOS always needs an update and it can’t update games while outside of SteamOS. So every time you go to launch it, it’s just nothing but updates… Unless you use it a lot, you won’t be using it at all.
Based on the terms of my purchase of FSD on my '19 that feels like it's required by that, and not that it's elons generosity.
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“Also, we will wait to make that decision until there is a statistically insignificant number of HW3 cars still in operation “
I think as long as you legally own FSD you are entitled to upgrades that provide the promised features of the system.
I got a free hardware upgrade to HW3 for my 2017 Model 3 HW 2.5 that I had purchased FSD. I have since transfers FSD when I bought my 2023 Model X.
Wake me when I can get AI5. 👀
HW3.5 sounds good to me! 🙌 Apparently I can get side camera upgrades for $500, I wonder if they’ll do something more there 👀 (not HW4 cams, simply the design update to “fix” the turn signal bleed at night. It’s akin to buying the matrix headlights to replace my reflector version 🤷🏻♂️) Side note, I’d love to be able to upgrade my Intel chip for a Ryzen! I know it probably won’t ever happen… but sign me up for the waitlist pls. 😂
They're both otherwise identical model Ys.
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Narrator: The cameras aren't good enough.
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It would be a Mass Arb.
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A lawsuit would have no backing.
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Same here, 2018 m3 with FSD. Wouldn’t this require upgrade to Ryzen computer also? That would be awesome!
You folks keep trying to lump the outright purchase of fsd and the subscription as if they were one and the same. They are not. You bought your 2019 car and opted to not buy fsd. Subscription option didn’t even exist at the time. Then later Tesla gave you a much cheaper (1000s of dollars less) way to enjoy fsd, and you’re still upset. The subscription option does not include a free hardware installation. You are fortunate legacy vehicles were allowed to subscribe at all. In the meantime, if you purchase fsd tomorrow you’ll be treated exactly like someone who had the right hardware installation in 2019. If you are so convinced that you’ve been snubbed, you should take them to court.
There are leagues of hw3 cameras that blind themselves while indicating. They're shit.
Most of these owners are Legacy S/X owners and older model 3s. The model 3 makes less than 10k/car (deck shows it to be around 6k) so they would be taking a 3k hit on every replacement car sold to these previous owners, furthermore that takes cars away from potential new owners who by all metrics have extreme brand loyalty once they switch to Tesla. For S/X there is a far greater margin on those cars (~16k) so they wouldn't lose money on them, but Tesla is only producing around 15k of them each quarter, it would be very hard for Tesla to actually replace those cars in a timely manner and you can't really ramp up car manufacturing for a short spike in demand, so it is also not really feasible. On the other hand, designing a new computer may cost a few million, but really peanuts in comparison. The hit there would be that the people working on "Legacy" stuff rather than the next generation are not easily replacable, so r&d would slow down slightly. Once it is designed, manufacturing of the new computer is a solved problem and far easier to scale and then slow down vs cars. Additionally the cost per unit installed would be fairly low. It only takes about 30 minutes to pull out the HW3 unit in my experiences, and I have only done it a handful of times. Techs with the right tools can probably do it in 15. Back of the napkin math would probably be a cost of around ~~$500~~ $1,000 (Edit: doubled it just to be even more safe) per car being extremely conservative, its likely much cheaper. There are ~400,000 S/X cars produced that are HW3 capable. There are ~4 million 3/Y produced that are HW3. So Tesla, to give a discount of 10,000 to everyone with a HW3 would be taking a potential hit of 44 billion dollars. In comparison, designing and producing 5 million units (over produced for tail production & defects) + free replacement, would be at around $1,000 per unit. Or "only" be 5 Billion in cost, making the cost of development a rounding error financially. Tesla has (probably) only realized 50% FSD revenue at most, specifically for this case. So it would be a write-down on unrealized revenue rather than a loss, which would not be a hit to their financials at all, since they haven't claimed the revenue yet. The money, for lack of a better word, is basically just sitting in escrow. So it would be orders of magnitude cheaper, and won't affect their balance sheet at all to retrofit versus trying to sell potentially scorned Tesla owners new cars. TL;DR: Retrofitting is (napkin math) 38 Billion dollars cheaper, and would not even appear on their balance sheets. Selling a new car to owners who probably do not want to spend another 30-80k is a hard ask, is a strain on production and deliveries to new owners, and would cause Tesla's balance sheet to nosedive.
He did not promise rideshare next year. He promised unsupervised FSD in CA and Tx before the end of 2025. Unsupervised FSD is not the same as ridesharing.
Yeah, I own one of them and also have an HW4 car. Even with the same software, the HW4 is better. But there's no way they can do unsupervised when HW3 blinds itself with its own blinker, much less the lower resolution and narrower field of view.
Anyone who buys these things and then uses "fsb" in public, I'd rather you just shoot me and mine and get it over with. You got sold. Taken. Don't drag us down with you.
There is no such thing as limited unsupervised. Either you can go to sleep or your can't. If you can't go to sleep it is not unsupervised.
The demand for that was not really there. He thought it would be some big thing that everyone wanted. Turns out playing video games for 25 minutes in your car is not that great.
Every Tesla owner has FSD right now.
4.4 million hw3 cars produced. More than half the cars that Tesla has ever produced. In no way, shape, or form would selling a new car be a feasible move. Especially since FSD revenue has not been fully realized. /u/longinglook77 idea would put Tesla's financials into a nosedive vs never even appearing on the balance sheet by retrofitting.
Limited unsupervised is literally what level 3 and 4 are. It's 2/5 of the levels. We'll probably see things like what Mercedes did as a publicity stunt with their unsupervised L3 system in slow highway traffic and other things like that followed by l4 which may be possible to have unsupervised in good weather but not bad. Both of those could quite feasibly be possible on current hardware.
Based on the fact that you can move your head or put down a shade to not stare directly at the sun while the camera is fkd?
More importantly, this promise only comes into effect when unsupervised FSD is ready. Will there even be many HW3 Teslas left on the road at that point?
How do you know if your car has hw3 vs hw4
Pretty sure they said that as well. Of course, anything is possible with enough money. I’m betting they say this in hopes of having very few model 3 cars left to do the upgrade. If any people take them up on it, it will be very expensive per car, but so few cars, it won’t affect them at all
Seems like they’d have to
Like someone said above, they will do the upgrade if they lock you in to a 2 year plus contract of FSD. And then Monthly fees after that still
Then you get to pay for the upgrade
Thank you. Yea it came with the car so id imagine it was legal, i hope.
It doesn't need to, again, take a look at the footage during one of these events. The dynamic range is plenty good enough, it has an easier time seeing things in these conditions than I do.
I think so. Although maybe I have just been extremely lucky. I have a 2014 S85 with 200k miles, only mechanical issues have been the suspension on the right side - which is more likely attributed to the pothole my wife drove over, popping 2 tires on that side, breaking the ball joint on the front LCA, and causing an air leak in the rear strut, and I am the only owner (its also the only 2014 with hw3! but thats another story). The original battery only has about 85% of it capacity vs when I got it. Luckily in real world driving, it still has about the same range by switching to hankook ev4 ion tires, they really are that good. The only real downside I feel with it is that supercharging is ridiculously slow. Only about twice as fast as charging at home at 80A with a gen1 wall charger. My 2020 has 110k miles, the only wear issues it has had are a minor air leak in the air suspension valve block @ 96k & needing its halfshafts replaced. However it was involved in a H&R when parked where someone backed into the front left wheel at ~60k miles, causing replacement of most of that wheels geometry, steering column, halfshafts, and front bumper. The new halfshafts then needed replacement because when they repaired it and reinstalled the front subframe, it was installed without adjusting the camber, causing the halfshafts to wear out. It too also only has 85% of its original range, but charging speeds are still decent and not much longer than the time it takes for me to want to leave. Overall, At least for the MS, which is by far the best built car besides maybe the Chinese MY, they last for fucking ever.
I think it says somewhere in the settings screens
Let me guess: next year?
Oh yes, it's always next year, of course
We are clearly discussing the scenario I described in my comment above as "I expect" and "probably". I could put "I expect" and "probably" in every sentence if you find it difficult to remember that far back, but that would make the comments awfully tedious to read and write. I prefer to assume a higher level of reading comprehension.
I'm sure most of the HW3 cars will be old enough to be dumped by the time FSD achieves L5, if ever
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Lol at this point if you believe anything Elon says, you gotta be delusional
Sorry for not being more clear in my original post. Its expensive, but the chip that would go in it is already being designed for HW5 and being done. What I mean is repackaging and binning weaker silicon of that next generation, better performing chip, to reach hw4 parity for hw3 cars as it should be able to reach the same level of compute at a lower performance* per watt, underclocked for better efficiency at the cost of lower compute. Repackaging the chip to a different board is more akin to the design of the motherboard and design requirements of the specific cars, not the creation of a bespoke new custom piece of silicon for a short run production. This is far cheaper and only in the few millions in cost. Furthermore, if you read my estimates, you would see that I put the total cost at 5 BILLION dollars. It is still not a cheap undertaking, and at that scale - the design of that board is basically a rounding error. Edit: Not trying to move goalposts, I posted that it should be rebinned before my post [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/1ganae1/elon_if_it_turns_out_that_hw3_cant_achieve/ltfx0fe/).
Prediction: HW4 won’t be able to do Level 5 Autonomy either, so it’ll never be necessary to make good on this promise.
How much is the fix?
Tesla's agreement bars class or representative actions, it does not explicitly prevent mass arbitration, where multiple individuals each bring separate arbitration claims.
"FSD"
Full self drive. Yes. Every Tesla owner was given a month of FSD. So right now every Tesla has FSD.
No chance. Only those who bought fsd outright will ne upgraded at no cost.
Anyone with older 1st and 2nd gen Tesla vehicles will not be eligible for hardware upgrades. They can. I don’t expect them to upgrade older vehicles because there is no financial incentive.
A service tech saw my cameras had a problem ('20 M3). They were replacing them for people who complained. I didn't complain, and the replacement policy was discontinued. So there are some cameras out there that probably won't perform well.
This isn’t news in the sense that there is any meaningful information in his statement. There’s no consequence for being full of shit. And he doesn’t mind appearing to be full of shit.
Not really. People bought a car that was promised to be capable of FSD, regardless.
“Full Self Drive”
It’s assisted driving. Team driving. Not full. Not self.
ring practice hospital domineering engine wide languid sand political cautious *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev/home)*
FSD*X*
People in this sub: >He mislead us before, but he’s making a new non binding pinky promise to make it right! Rejoice!
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Watch your camera footage. It's not a concern.
HW 3 is several years old at this point. Your info was accurate then, but not now.
The electrical harnesses in the cars cannot be changed. This is the real issue, not the computer itself. Those harnesses will always be in there as it would require near complete disassembly to upgrade them which is not a feasible solution for anyone. HW4 has, at peak, 40% higher power usage than what the hw3 wiring provides, and 250% the usage of hw3. The only way to get parity is by using a chip that is within the same power envelope of hw3. That simply isn’t the case with HW4. Edit: additionally, if you solve the power envelope problem, you inherently solve the heat disappation issue as well as heat is just a byproduct of the power being delivered.
Some HW3 cars will not be around for this upgrade to actually happen.
I'm a class action and mass arbitration administration expert. I've provided expert opinions to state and federal courts on dozens of cases, with a focus on deceptive marketing and privacy cases. Many law firms have used mass arbitration strategies successfully in similar situations with other companies. Based on Tesla's agreement, each person could file an individual (boilerplate) arbitration claim, but the high volume of claims would likely create leverage for settlement discussions. At a certain point, Tesla may seek to consolidate the claims.
This is false
Keep the scam going
Eh by the time FSD is 100%, HW5 or 6 will be out. I’ll have changed cars by then 😂
They’ll raise the price of FSD to cover the cost of the upgrades lol
They've already done it once, and legally they're on the hook to deliver what was sold as FSD at the time. Is there a reason why you think they won't?
They've already done what once? And if they are legally on the hook, why haven't they been sued for one of the times Musk promised shit that didn't get delivered already?
If folks haven’t bought the fsd package then they have lost no money on FSD and thus are fine without any upgrades. I’m on the same boat (no FSD) and it’s fine if other purchasers of FSD get that upgrade for free (because they’ve spent 8-15k) on that already For subscriptions they will perhaps update the terms so that subscribers get a limited edition of FSD (rather than a free upgrade).
Have you seen that Tesla has done free and paid retrofits for older cars over the years. What he is claiming is not unusual and possible given the track record
They already upgraded people from HW2 or 2.5 to HW3 a few years back for free. They haven't generally been sued because it's still a work in progress and that part was clear if you bought it. If they completely fail to deliver and move on, that's when you'd have a solid argument in court.
How many people was that? And oh no, Musk has repeatedly promised shit that has not come to pass, are you just joking?
That has the potential to backfire - cases where large numbers of customers start bringing arbitration claims can drive costs higher than class action lawsuits. And when you're talking about something that was sold for $8k+ on very questionable promises, I wouldn't actually bet on the company doing very well with arbitration.
But if you owned FSD, you are already getting upgrades for free regardless.
I would go as far to say they would use a modified HW5 chip to get it on par with HW4. There is a point where it makes since to halt HW4 chip development and not keep investing in it. Also likely, the HW5 chip could be cheaper to produce, possibly.
ok if they can't make it work, will people get a refund if they purchased FSD early on?
Remember, he breaks his promises a lot
So they will probably delay the upgrades for a long time until they are finally "sure" that HW3 won‘t be sufficient. So they can make sure less and less HW3 cars even still exist.
*in USA and Canada
How do you know if you have HW3 or 4?
No, they're separate.
Based on the fact that human eyes have variable apertures and HW4 cameras don't.
Money down the drain for Tesla. But easily the most reasonable and mature way forward. Especially since the verbatim “The car you buy today will be able to be capable of full self driving” back around the HW3 era would easily be a class action case.
Yes - but. As soon as Tesla gets to unsupervised autonomy, the monthly cost of FSD will either go way way up (to what a taxi can earn in a month) or change to be per-mile. It is then in Tesla's interest to upgrade every HW3 so they can make more money this way.
My 2018 M3's side camera have flaws. There's light leak in housing. So when turn signal is activated, the camera is basically blind itself. Hope they will upgrade the camera too
If the remaining problem will be speed, they can still meet what he promised by limiting the speed for FSD. And this wouldn't be that off, because it's the same thing a human driver does normally.
The only reason I bought Tesla is because musk promised it's an appreciating asset becuaue of FSD. Now I won't be able to use a subscription for fsd to get fsd? Why didn't he say this earlier?
Except every owner outside of USA..
I'll only believe it when i see it being done en masse.
Nothing that Tesla has now will be able to accomplish fully autonomous driving on all major roads in the most common weather conditions. Supervised can become better but interventions will still be necessary without secondary sensors. The cameras alone are insufficient.
Except for us unfortunate europeans 😭
I’ve seen people share invoices from around $300-$500. Some lucky ones get it for free under “warranty” but that might’ve been at the start of the turn signal software update.
That blows, i have the same problem but didn't think to complain about it
So if the car Fully Drives itSelf, I can take a nap? It can drive me home from the bar? It can make money on the Tesla Network as a Robotaxi? That’s what Full Self Driving was supposed to be.
Yeah but you got it "free" by paying thousands and thousands of dollars for FSD. Not worth it IMO. However, I'm contemplating whether to upgrade from HW2.5 to HW3.0 since we have FSD subscription in Canada now. What sucks is that Tesla wants $1500+tax for the upgrade.
Will believe it when I see it
Someone should probably tell Elon that
Since when is the entire population of the Earth located in the USA?
Every FSD purchaser at the time, which was estimated to be in the tens of thousands to low hundred thousand range from my recollection. It doesn't matter what else Elon has said and promised, it matters what people bought. Nobody has bought a robotaxi package or his other crazy promises. People did buy AP, and it has generally delivered on what was listed at the time. People did buy FSD, Tesla said upgrades would be included until the car is capable of FSD, then they did it and confirmed they'll do it again. I don't know why you're arguing with facts lol.
Its an issue if there's any road skum on the lenses. Then direct sunlight illuminates the film of dirt and blinds the lens. It's a problem I've thought fsd would be impossible for years but now I'm not so sure these days. After 4 years and never really ever cleaning the cameras fsd still works pretty great. But then in the one situation where the sun is right in your eyes you do need perfectly clean cameras
Yeah this is right. It would be a custom designed hw3 system that has the compute of hw4 or 5 whatever is required. I might now even think hw4 is going to be a tight pinch to be in because hw4 is only a small step above hw3 in terms of compute. Hw5 is multiple orders of magnitude of inference
So my FSD computer is in capable of FSD? Sounds like false marketing to me.
HW4 is quite a bit more powerful at 57 TOPs vs 36 for hw3, but there is a lot of headroom for hw5 to grow, hw4 is on 14nm I believe? Which is nearly a decade old now.
Yes. Unsupervised FSD is on track for Q2 next year.
What about when HW5 comes out and I need to go from 2.5>3>4>5? Should I just wait for HW726?
Your '22 is HW3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot_hardware?wprov=sfla1
I had 2.5 and got upgraded for free. Granted I bought FSD.
And how many now? And no, FSD has not delivered on the things Elon promised about it, are you joking?
If they get this working, they're printing money. I don't think it will be an issue to do this. The worst case scenario is if they can get HW3 working, but it's not as good as HW4 and not good enough to satisfy people. As in, they get it working to make it safe, but it drives so slow that people would rather just drive themselves.
HW1/2 upgrade to 3 was only \~$1500 - standard PC upgrade cost. Found this out when looking at getting a used Model S. SO - not that bad a cost, also gives you other things - this is a whole computer system update, so you get a faster computer that plays more games as well (or at least has more power for them). Not the best news, but not bad at all. Not like any other car that never updates. At least this is not that expensive
I wonder if this also applies to people who just bought the “FSD computer” upgrade rather than all of FSD. They sold “FSD computer” not “HW3”. The invoice says as such.
No it's not.
The dynamic range on these cameras is plenty good enough. Take a look at the footage in these conditions for yourself.
I have.
Greentheonly made a thread in this a while back showing what the direct feed looked like and how the cameras work just fine in these situations. The guy is hardly someone you could call a Tesla supporter. I'll see if I can dig it up for you. Would that help? Here's one mention. https://x.com/greentheonly/status/1331343203841306630?t=4rNGNQ4gziMyp5fxmuB_WA&s=19 Another https://x.com/greentheonly/status/1320869762470170625?t=OZqGjp-Oh0rmHOg4WyjvEw&s=19
Understand that a camera "working just fine" is not the same thing as that camera having human-level dynamic range, or working well enough to guarantee L4/L5 requisite levels of fidelity.
https://x.com/greentheonly/status/1200626379542409216?t=pyMITu4dnwDzQ1rlOc-gdw&s=19 Green seems to think so, even back with HW3 in 2019. >clearly beats my vision in these conditions. That said, i'm not sure what the point of arguing wether it's better than human dynamic range or good enough is, what matters is if it will work to accomplish better driving than humans. Furthermore, the original claim wasn't that they work better than human eyes it was that they get blinded more often than your eyes. Blinded = no worky. If the cameras are good enough to work even in situations where humans are mostly blinded that makes these claims moot.
The honest answer to the upgrade question is that your FSD gets transferred for free to a Tesla that has HW4. The bigger question is if HW4 will be enough for Level 5 autonomous driving.
"Appropriate safety level" needs to be specifically defined. Such as: meets regulatory testing approval for robotaxi (car on the road with nobody behind the wheel).
Once unsupervised FSD is achieved, they should bring that back for sure.
Thet need more than cameras to get to 100%
The fixed that at some point. I have HW3 and no blinker issues. Worst case scenario they could swap out just those two cameras.
Yeah, there are still significant resolution and FOV differences, though. Even after the blinker fix. Example: [https://imgur.com/a/comparison-overlay-hw4-vs-hw3-ic2uQgS](https://imgur.com/a/comparison-overlay-hw4-vs-hw3-ic2uQgS) Also: [https://youtu.be/zcpfeMXM344?t=69](https://youtu.be/zcpfeMXM344?t=69) (at 1:09 in particular, but the whole video is interesting)
$3k for me, and I'm going to get two computer upgrades out of it, plus the use of FSD right now which is pretty darn good these days and I enjoy seeing the progress
Those of that got upgraded to HW2 from HW1 are screwed I assume. I want my money back for FSD.
Yeah I think people aren't thinking straight about this. If they really get unsupervised FSD working why would people buy literally any other car? You're going to buy a Ford and sit in traffic behind the wheel when you could be sleeping in the backseat of a Tesla? Tesla's profits would soar. It's fine if you believe HW4 won't ever do unsupervised FSD, there's an argument to be made for that. But people who believe that Tesla will refuse to upgrade older cars in the scenario where unsupervised FSD actually works, they just don't make any sense.
I understand people being upset, if they payed for FSD believing it was a year away and it turned into 4-5 years. I think Tesla should have made FSD transferable until it's final release if you buy a new car. That would have taken the sting out of it for a lot of people. Or at least if they made it transferable until today, since we're much closer to a final release than it was even two years ago. Like I said, the worst thing is if they launch the unsupervised version and on HW3 it drives like grandma. That's really going to piss people off.
I didn't know you could buy the computer upgrade without FSD. Did it change anything about how the car drives? I thought that FSD was the only feature that the upgrade affects.
It’s an upgrade available to HW2.5 vehicles (and maybe 2 as well? Idk) that allows you to subscribe to FSD. I think it also has slightly improved normal autopilot performance and more visualizations even when FSD is not subscribed to. It costs $1000 plus tax and is sold as “FSD computer”, so if it turns out that it isn’t capable of FSD, I would expect to also be upgraded.
Maybe, but if the customer didn’t pay full price I don’t think it would be a breach of trust to not upgrade it even with the subscription. With most car brands if you don’t choose an option you don’t even get the hardware. Obviously if a customer pays for something in good faith Tesla should do what they need to do to make it work and fulfill their part of the deal.
100% what?
Based on my own experiences and those I've seen others have on YouTube, including with the latest version of FSD. It will sometimes put up the emergency, take over, indicator on the screen when sun glare gets bad enough to block its vision and causes it to turn FSD off. I don't see how this can be solved in software. Heck, if it's bad enough, it will blind humans too (they shut down a section of I-70 west of Denver during a part of the day seasonally because of how bad the sun glare can get -- https://www.codot.gov/travel/sunglare). I don't expect it to deal with sun glare better than humans, just as well as humans (which matches the definition of level 5 autonomy), so I wouldn't expect it to work in that specific case at I-70 that I mentioned. But with the current version of the cameras, I don't think it'll be possible for it to work in many other cases where humans can handle the sun glare but the car cannot. If you have FSD and never have this problem, I can only guess that you drive during a part of the day when sun glare's not a problem or you simply don't get as much sun glare where you live. I can reproduce the problem on just about any sunny day where I live thanks to the local terrain.
Yeah I definitely knew when buying FSD that it wasn't coming for many many years, regardless of what Elon was saying.
I have had this occur. Just because the current software is precautionary and has the user take over in some of these conditions does not mean the cameras are blinded more often than humans or that they are insufficient to see during these cases. Certainly it's degraded, likely now it's safer to have humans take over when that's the case.
How about u just give me my damn money back for fsd that i paid snake oil salesman
What about Enhanced Autopilot?
Are we sure that this free upgrade will not exclude buyers that purchased the HW2.5 and have already been upgraded once for free (HW2.5 to HW3)? He did say: we will upgrade "those who have ***bought HW3 FSD*** for free".
I believe when I bought FSD and my car had HW2.5 they had already publicly committed to upgrading HW2.5 to HW3 for FSD owners. So what I bought was FSD on HW3.
I agree with your post on the other thread, Tesla may not be able to retrofit HW4 (due to the factors you mentioned), but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t develop a modified version of HW3 (almost like a "fork") that incorporates lessons learned from HW4 and future AI5. It might take another 3 years for Tesla to make this decision but considering that some 2023 and 2024 models were still released with HW3, hundreds of thousands of vehicles are now in a tough spot after being promised FSD capabilities. If Tesla decides to settle lawsuits instead of upgrading the hardware, the cost could be enormous. With approximately 2 million Teslas in the U.S. alone, settling lawsuits might actually exceed their annual R&D budget, which is around $800 million. Plus, the negative impact on the brand could be bad enough in the busness sector - especially as other companies evaluate Tesla’s technology for applications like Semis and Freight. It could also harm future sales from people who will feel like they're getting stiffed. You can't say *"Buy my MS, I'll take care of you"* only to be told - *"Oops, you bought it too early, trade it in for 50% but I'll give you FSD and another promise that THIS one WILL be forward compatible."* If Tesla can develop an "AI5 Lite" version for the FSD computer, it could (in theory) allow them to upgrade the cameras for better quality while keeping power consumption in check - the main problem given the wattage constraints on the harnesses (as you mentioned). There’s definitely a path forward for both HW3 and HW4, but it's all going to be dependent on waiting for AI5 and leveraging that technologyto make meaningful upgrades.
God i dont and never will understand why tesla wont allow a native hdmi input and its disabled when the car is in drive.
Hopium lol.
That doesn't make human eyes more capable. Have you spent time in a bright environment and then walked into a dark room? How long did it take your variable apertures to adjust so you could actually make out details? When your aperture is in *dark mode*, your eye can't distinguish detail in bright light at all. When your aperture is in *bright mode*, your eye can't see dark detail at all. It has to switch and trade capabilities and it takes time to do so. The dynamic range of HW3 and HW4 cameras is such that no mechanical aperture is necessary. The sun can be visible right next to a traffic light and they have no problem resolving the traffic light status (a thing humans struggle with). You can be driving on a wet road at night with heavy oncoming traffic casting scattered white reflections that disrupt visibly of the white lane lines - another situation humans struggle with - and the cameras have no issue there either. There were issues early on when camera footage was fed through an image signal processor. That ISP was compressing the dynamic range, which negated the capability of the system. Tesla has since bypassed the ISP for FSD via software update. Another thing to keep in mind is when you view Tesla dashcam footage, you too are seeing a compressed version. If you can make out the detail in the footage, what the FSD computer sees is even better than that.
That’s odd. I inquired with my SC about upgrading my HW3 (2018 M3) to HW4. They told me the two systems use different plugs and weren’t compatible.
So are they going to stop selling FSD on HW3 then? (Or...have they already? idk.)
It is $1000 to upgrade HW2.5 to HW3 if you are subscribing. This is still true today. [https://www.tesla.com/support/full-self-driving-computer](https://www.tesla.com/support/full-self-driving-computer)
Multiple cameras for redundancy helps with a single camera getting blinded by mud or bird crap or whatever. Even today’s Tesla’s have 3 forward facing cameras, I think?
According to who? A source inside Tesla other than Musk, ideally?
Well I paid for FSD up front on my car, so I hope it’s still on the road when (if) unsupervised becomes available…
from your lips to Elon's ears.
You forgot the key word “supervised”
Will this apply for 2017 Model X (90D) with full FSD purchased and all HW3 + MCU2 upgrades installed?
How so? I've got 2017 Model X 90D with full FSD option and all HW3 + MCU2 upgrades installed. I fully expected this to qualify as HW4 upgradable HW3-vehicle.
“Elon guaranteed?”
Don't assume an upgrade to HW4. Some changes to the HW3 computer might make more sense.
Maybe in the future they'll add a motorized sun shade to the cameras lol. The main issues I've had with HW4 cameras so far has been fsd sometimes disengaging during even very light, misting rain on a gray overcast day. The sun was technically still out but the clouds were blocking the sky so not much light but still not dark - just grey. Basically Seattle weather. Even the lightest amount of rain can essentially blind the cameras very quickly. Definitely designed in California otherwise the cameras would have wipers or something, lol. Main downside of no RADAR/LIDAR unfortunately
I'm cool with that for now. Its still better than any other car manufacturer's version.
Did you buy FSD? If not, you weren’t harmed. If you did, he just said they will make you whole by upgrading to HW4.
Wait until youre ready to get a new tesla and the inevitable free FSD transfer is live.
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He is a business it’s ingrained in him to lie about it to sell as many product as possible
Took me from my house in los angeles to my dad's house in lancaster with 0 interventions. I have to watch the road, but the car fully drove itself.
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they should put ND filters on the camera so they come down automatically when the exposure from the sun is too high
He never said HW4 at any point in that discussion, that post title is objectively incorrect.
Even if the HW3 is replaced, I don't think the cameras are good enough. They can barely see 200 Y ahead today. FSD (12.5.4.1) uses the brakes all the time because the signs and lights are seen too late to slow with regenerative braking. I never use the brakes.
With HW3 I tend to believe that. Mornings here get fog a lot in the fall and winter and HW3 with [12.5.4.1](http://12.5.4.1) just gives up very quickly even in light fog while I can easily navigate without it.
They will have to, the old HW3 cameras can't see very far, and even if they upgrade the processor, you can't process what you don't have.
I tend to agree honestly, I think they need better resolution and coverage and dynamic range. Stereo would be useful as well, and lens/cover glass cleaning ability is a must for level 5.
if you believe this, let me save you the time wasted on stressing its not going to happen. Elon said this doesnt make sense last year, because it doesnt. greentheonly and sandy have shown that this isnt some "drag and drop upgrade". they would have to be legally forced to do this, and Tesla covers themselves pretty well
California isn’t the moon. It rains. Just not much in the summer, except for light, misting rain near the coast …where most live… with teslas.
Risky statement
Fixing one lie with another lie...
i'm definitely never selling my 2018 3 with FSD, so unless someone crash into me and totals it my car would be one of those
How long do you expect that car to keep running, 10 years? 20? Because that's a realistic timeline for vision only FSD (if it's achievable at all).
agree. I’m counting on my HW4 car (purchased in August) doing exactly what it does right now and not a single thing more. I knew what a lying pile of dog kibble the CEO was when I bought my car. I don’t treat everything the comes out of his face as a legally binding contract worthy of a class action 5 years from now. Edit: I just have low expectations based on past promises.
i think it'll be achieved before 10 years, and i fully expect my car to last another 10 years, barring somebody ramming into me that is
I purchased 1st batch of Model 3 in 2018 with EAP (costs 8000CDN) . Latter in 2019 I paid 2600 CDN to upgrade to FSD (part of the reason is that I have heard that there will be free upgrade to HW 3.0). They upgraded my 2018 Model 3 to HW for free in 2019. Last year I move the FSD license to my new Model Y (with HW3.0). So I will be awarded another HW upgrade?
Yes. Ashok. I understand how late they have been compared to previous targets, but I find it encouraging, that the targets are getting more specific.
By “on track,” I’d assume he means that the number of miles between interventions, on average, is trending in a way that suggests it will be good enough for Level 4/5 autonomy in Q2 ‘25
The goal was defined as distance between critical interventions = average distance between human driven accidents. On track was determined by projecting current progress and training compute additions.
They must have a way to sort out which interventions were truly safety critical. I intervene at least once on a typical 30 minute drive, on average, to avoid a wrong turn, incorrect lane change, etc. Although it has been awhile since I had to intervene for a safety critical reason, to prevent an accident. If it makes a wrong turn, we’ll still get to our destination, it will just take a little longer.
If they achieve lvl5, it would be worth a lot more than 15K
Don’t believe a single “promise” Elon makes.
It's a pretty simple fix. There are already people who performed minor mods by blocking the indicator light.
It may need HW5 in 2027
What happens now that there is a potential for autonomous driving data to not need to be disclosed? Can Tesla just say that all their systems are safe and get away with not upgrading HW3 vehicles to HW4?
Does anyone actually trust that he’ll keep his word? He’s back tracked on so many promises in the past. I wouldn’t be surprised if HW3 owners get left in the dust eventually.
i guarantee HW3 is not capable. if you think ahead of time, cam quality and lack of cam covered area, such as especially front end wide view on bumper. and curbs even human and FSD fail to avoid damaging the wheels. ppl have better luck avoid by using 360 or side curb view on side mirror cams. now tesla robot taxi has front end bumper cam and cybertruck, and rumor says new ModelY would have them. but still lack of self cleaning cams, especially rear end cam and front end cam. i can confirm hw4 cam quality is way better clean and clear view in rear at night. u can reverse with no fear in HW4, whereas Hw3 u would have to use brake light as light source which mean apply brake or release if 1 pedal to guide you. remind you dry wipe is still problem but getting better and no matrix light(part of auto highbeam)
Kind of funny because just not last year Elon stated hw3 could not upgrade to hw4 because there was not enough space to fit hw4
This didn't age so well. Apparently, v13 is really good
The cameras need to be upgraded too
Oh, so v13 is unsupervised, then? No? It still requires driver supervision? Oh, well then I guess my comment is still valid and aged just fine. But thanks for your input.
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