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Worth it to upgrade to HW3 and buy FSD based on Elon’s tweet

NotLikeUs_21 | 2026-01-14 15:47 | 34 views

I have a 2017 M3, still on HW2.5. I never thought about getting FSD seriously until Elon’s tweet this morning on how they are moving to subscription only. Do you think it’s worth it to upgrade to HW3 and buy FSD outright… I have 86k miles on it, but I plan on driving this car until it gives out.

Comments (80)
ThunderSevn 2026-01-14 15:52

HW4 is where all the new development is.....HW3 has been stuck for a long while on the same FSD code for (about a year)...and likely not to change much going forward. I personally would not do it.

ContestRemarkable356 2026-01-14 15:52

I have a 22 M3LR. I sub to FSD every month, and will prob grab the $999/year plan now. I wouldn’t do what you’re thinking. Paying $1k/year means you’d need 8 more years to break even with the advantage of paying the $8k upfront. They are great cars, but I can’t really recommend this for a 2017.

NotLikeUs_21 2026-01-14 15:52

Fair, was holding out hope they’d eventually start pushing updates to HW3 but looks like they aren’t for now

FlapsFail 2026-01-14 15:55

I recently went from HW3 (21 M3LR) to HW4 (26 M3P) and the difference is substantial. If you're going to upgrade, I suggest getting a HW4 vehicle if you can. I've had FSD since 10.X. On my HW3 vehicle it was usable but not exceptional. FSD 14.2 on HW4 has been a game changer for me.

TheGrasshopper92 2026-01-14 15:55

Not for $8K. If you already have EAP then it might be worth it.

shannonator96 2026-01-14 16:00

It’s been 2 years of no FSD update for HW3. It’s fair to assume it’s dead hardware.

NotLikeUs_21 2026-01-14 16:00

Oooff didn’t realize that, that’s good info

CHIDENCHI 2026-01-14 16:02

I have a 2019 with HW3. In my experience, FSD is useless. It either puts me in danger, or drives 10mph slower than I've set it, or makes shaky, uncertain turns at 5 MPH, or ghost brakes until it stops in the middle of the road for no reason. It's capabilities have declined; I used to be able to go hands-free a few years back. Now, there's no way. That said, I didn't have to pay for the upgrade from 2.5. I'm sure there are other benefits to having HW3 than just FSD. But if FSD is the only reason you'd upgrade, I wouldn't waste your time.

iiiGVXDiii 2026-01-14 16:05

I upgraded from EAP for 2k, absolutely worth it for a hw3 car. If you dont have EAP, not worth it at all.

WkndWarrior12345054 2026-01-14 16:06

No because FSD keeps getting better with each HW version.

CHIDENCHI 2026-01-14 16:07

It's my understanding they won't be pushing updates. HW3 just can't handle the latest builds. It's a completely different fork/build now. Elon has mentioned maybe upgrading HW3 owners who bought FSD at the time of purchase, but take that with an Elon-sized grain of salt. HW4 doesn't fit in HW3's existing space, so it'd be no small amount of work to retrofit it.

Sad_Salad_3749 2026-01-14 16:09

This is simply not true, it has been 11 months(February 2025) and they have said there will be another one but who knows

northernguy 2026-01-14 16:11

I have a 2019 M3 with purchased FSD on HW3. Any idea on whether we will get free upgrades to hw4?

EggotheKilljoy 2026-01-14 16:16

Theoretically we'll get a v14 lite if they hold to their word, but I have my doubts

Brinksterrr 2026-01-14 16:19

They are going to release an FSD light in HW3 right?

Sad_Salad_3749 2026-01-14 16:21

Same

TheGrasshopper92 2026-01-14 16:22

That’s where I was at a few years ago. Went with the upgrade before the language change. Just gonna buy new batteries and motors till this car dies now and take all the hardware upgrades I can get. This screams them recognizing HW4 is gonna go out of date quite quickly.

NotLikeUs_21 2026-01-14 16:24

I have EAP and HW2.5. So I could do the HW3 upgrade and get FSD, that would be like $3k total right?

socrpro192 2026-01-14 16:26

Can someone point a link to the tweet? I have hw3 model 3 with enhance auto pilot. I’ve thought about pulling the trigger on FSD for $2k lifetime for me but enhance auto pilot does basically everything I need. Plan on driving this car until it falls apart. Can anyone give advice?

iiiGVXDiii 2026-01-14 16:32

I don't know the retrofit cost, but if it is like, 1k$ for the upgrade, then possibly. At that point it just depends on how badly you want FSD. Its nothing like HW4, but its 100% usable. I use mine for my hour and a half of commute every day to work with 0 issues up in the city. In the end, its what *you* want to do lol

Jaws12 2026-01-14 16:40

You should get the HW3 upgrade for free if you upgrade/purchase FSD outright. You only get charged for the HW3 upgrade if you are subscribing.

dynamite647 2026-01-14 16:41

They should include park at destination for v12, I think it can handle.

NotLikeUs_21 2026-01-14 16:42

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2011324998653513810?s=46

Masteguy635 2026-01-14 16:45

It was 2k total when I upgraded from EAP to FSD in my 2018 3. The HW3 upgrade was included in the purchase.

LeaString 2026-01-14 16:49

I got called by Tesla for my HW3 update quite a while ago and they did the work. Took a while to get notified to bring it in. Positive it involved new cameras as well. This was a free upgrade for me from HW2.5. My Model 3 LR AWD was purchased new in 2018 so original owner, 9/2018 mfgr date. Bought it with Enhanced Auto pilot package (was pre-ordered before Model 3 release and EAP ran $5K then) and when they first offered the FSD upgrade for $2K, took advantage of it. Husband thought I was crazy. I think $7K maybe be the least expensive it has ran and think they usually want $8K total for it. I have the Premium package but didn’t update the sound system beyond that. I was lucky buying when I did to get grandfathered in on the Connectivity/Maps. Lots of reasons to hold onto my car. I don’t use the FSD but my husband when he drives my car does most times. It honestly has been pretty good. Taken trips basically from door to door with it on HW3. I can recall two instances where my husband took over not sure what it was going to do. He’s been pretty impressed using it lately. He stays vigilant using it and feels like it takes some of the stress off driving. I like driving my car but have to admit it was doing a very good job at this stage. Did really well maintaining the lane at night during heavy rain recently. **Here’s my current software updates: Software: 2025.44.25.4 Full Self-Driving (Supervised) Software: v12.6.4** With batteries having a long life on average, I’m still driving my Model 3 and still loving it. No desire to upgrade to newer car. I don’t have the newer heat pump on my model and heating and cooling works great. Car has been great and I haven’t had any big expense since owning it. Replaced AC filter twice and 12v battery once so far. Work done by mobile at my house. Tires have been most costly item. I had the car Xpelled and ceramic coated on delivery and the body still looks like new. I’m planning on keeping it. For me buying FSD has been worth it. It’s only gotten better. He’s been using it on hwy and local road with no problem. My husband does really like it. Anyway that’s my take on the feature.

CaliDude75 2026-01-14 16:49

I spent the $1,000 to upgrade from 2.5 to 3.0, and I kind of feel like I’m holding the bag. 😕 Unless Tesla is giving me HW4 for free, I’m not going to spend any more out-of-pocket.

Sad_Salad_3749 2026-01-14 16:52

The fact it can auto park and do smart summon but not do the same thing in FSD is so weird to me

realTurdFergusun 2026-01-14 16:54

2018 m3 here and I did the upgrade for $2k. I see a lot of people knocking HW3 but FSD is still amazing. I use it a lot, including some 3+ hr trips and my experience has been overwhelmingly positive. I'm not confident that we'll ever see HW4, and FSD blows advanced autopilot out of the water. I say do it.

luminus3d 2026-01-14 16:55

Yes, and I'm pretty sure it will be better than what people here are speculating

sk8terboy111 2026-01-14 17:30

It’s great to see these 7+ year old cars on the road with not much service needed, but at some point you have to realize the batteries will go, this is the downside to EV’s and although your 2018 looks and rides amazing are you going to drop the $ to replace the battery in a few years, it’s not like will it go bad, but it’s a when issue. I use HW4 100% of the time and I’ve been in cars with HW3, it’s different, yes it works but it’s not the same experience. Now if Tesla puts it in writing you can move your purchased FSD then 100% do the upgrade, but from what I’ve read they run these specials and I suspect, just a hunch, that once it goes full subscription then they will not allow transfers.

AtariAtari 2026-01-14 17:31

The marketing is working on you

NotLikeUs_21 2026-01-14 17:33

What was the purpose of upgrading the HW, did you also buy FSD outright?

R5Jockey 2026-01-14 17:35

You need definitive clarity on exactly who will be entitled to the free HW4 upgrade and when it will happen. As of now, we have zero details. I would assume any free upgrades are only going to apply to original owners who purchase FSD with the car. Those people can safely assume at some point in the next 20 years they’ll be eligible for a free upgrade. Everyone else? A big question mark.

NotLikeUs_21 2026-01-14 17:36

My parents bought the car, we technically transferred the title to me, so not sure if that’s considered originally owned…

chewychubacca 2026-01-14 17:43

I also have a 2018 model 3, and followed pretty much the same path you have regarding EAP and FSD. We're at 88k miles, and just had the 12v battery replaced for the 2nd time last month.

CaliDude75 2026-01-14 17:56

I wanted the FSD capability, which at the time was promised with HW3. But it seems Tesla is slow-walking HW3 updates, and focusing on HW4. Hindsight 20/20. 🤷🏻‍♂️

rjcarr 2026-01-14 17:58

What do you mean, FSD is already available on HW3. Do you mean unsupervised?

JDubStep 2026-01-14 18:21

FSD is never going to be what you want it to be. Quit paying money to beta test this shit.

LeaString 2026-01-14 18:24

Yes all still unsupervised.

Brinksterrr 2026-01-14 18:46

Yea currently FSD is more like autopilot with only automatic lane changes as extra, as well as Summon and Auto-park. But the FSD light is a lighter version of the FSD that is currently build for HW4, see also [https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/3263/tesla-to-bring-fsd-v14-lite-to-hardware-3-vehicles](https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/3263/tesla-to-bring-fsd-v14-lite-to-hardware-3-vehicles)

Seansong82 2026-01-14 20:13

No, sell the car and get a used HW4 they’re pretty cheap right now.

Pliskin01 2026-01-14 21:01

First off, why pay money (and then more money on top of that to upgrade) for something that is practically deprecated (HW3 FSD)? Additionally, you don’t use FSD now. What has changed with yourself and your situation that makes you think you want it? Don’t let Tesla’s FOMO marketing tactics get to you. You didn’t even think about it until they told you to. Keep the almost ten thousand dollars and put it towards the cash purchase of your next car.

TheGrasshopper92 2026-01-14 21:55

Retrofit should be included with the paid upgrade

[deleted] 2026-01-15 00:20

I wouldn’t

xBlurx 2026-01-15 04:04

agreed. it’s not too bad to use day to day. it’s pretty good until it’s not. 😂

Better_Historian3473 2026-01-15 04:20

No

Nice_Storage613 2026-01-15 12:05

I feel sad whenever someone believes and acts based on what Musk says. He just lies all the time.

Rytes478 2026-01-15 13:01

I was in a similar situation as you about a year ago. I decided to purchase and get the upgrade to hw3 because of the Elons comment on possibly upgrading those that had purchased Fsd. I intend to keep this car for as long as I can (I’m part of the FIRE group). My cost was only 2k because I had EAP. I wouldn’t listen to anyone who says it’s dead hardware. Fsd is pretty phenomenal and I use it pretty regularly. Even if it stopped progressing here I would still enjoy it. I always use it on long road trips and it goes end to end without issue. Is it perfect, no but it definitely gets updates regularly. These updates are not in a new “version” but are done through minor updates. When you use it all the time you see how it gets better or sometimes regresses then gets better again. There are other enhancements too like blind spot monitoring, stop light alert and better camera feed clarity. You do not get new cameras. For me it was worth it. I live in a newer to me area and I love putting in a destination and not having to worry about how to navigate there. Even better when I’ve had a drink and it would normally be more stressful. Those that have done side by sides say they pretty much don’t see a difference. With that said hw3 won’t park itself or leave the parking spot yet. I have no problem doing that because honestly I like to pick my spot and I can do it quicker than the car can.

Salty_Leather42 2026-01-15 13:17

They’re basically abandoning HW3 and HW5 is on the way . I wouldn’t pay for HW3 at this point personally .

LordFluffyPotato 2026-01-15 13:45

So far no and it’s unlikely. They have commented that HW4 physically doesn’t fit in the same space.

Desperate_Exercise13 2026-01-15 14:22

Absolutely don’t buy for hw3. The subscription might even go down in cost, who knows.

No-Kaleidoscope3609 2026-01-15 15:49

If you have enhanced autopilot I think it’s a no brainer for $2k you get the new hw and Fsd for life

PowerfulExpert3176 2026-01-15 21:10

I think you should do it I think in the end based on what work has been said you’re gonna get a massive upgrade to your computer in your car(retrofit) and lifetime unsupervised full self driving. If I had the money, I would do it. I have a hardware three model three.

Lanky-Slice-9122 2026-01-16 00:44

Got a hw4 car yesterday still has some left over FSD trial from the previous owner. I’m struggling to decide to pay the $8k mostly because Elon is an outright liar so it’s hard to decide if it’s a bluff

StumpyJoeShmo 2026-01-16 01:50

Curious what you mean by this as I'm not super knowledgeable on the topic. Unsupervised FSD is already rolling out in Austin with robotaxis using the same hardware. Why wouldn't we expect it to continue to improve and gain widespread adoption?

JDubStep 2026-01-16 01:59

Politics aside, everything EM has promised as far as Tesla is concerned has either been exaggerated or a complete lie. We have been 6 months away from FSD for 5 years or more. The roadster, cybertruck, semi, $30000 model 3 have all been promised and have yet to meet the expectations set by the CEO. The only thing currently keeping this company afloat is speculative trading and finance bros using TSLA as a meme stock. Tesla has not advanced their vehicles to keep up with Chinese or Korean manufacturers and the only reason it is the best American EV is because the big three were incentivized by the former administration to develop EVs and have since abandoned the EV market now that the tax credits have been cancelled.

Slava_Ukraini2005 2026-01-16 02:11

No

DWolvin 2026-01-16 07:11

Did you upgrade from 2.5 / EAP? If so, what's the visual difference between them on the nave screen? Any difference in responsiveness?

Rytes478 2026-01-16 11:46

Yes I went from 2.5/EAP. The visual differences was better clarity of the side camera feed when the directional was on. This included less blinker glare at night. Also having blind spot monitoring, traffic lights, stop signs and speed limit visuals. Also better visuals of parking spaces and better ability for the car to self park. I really didn’t notice a speed change in the screen. Mine has always been pretty responsive (but not as fast as a brand new one). I did notice that when I put the car in reverse the cameras loaded on screen much faster (sometimes previously I had a delay). Sentry mode clips seemed to load a good amount faster too.

Terrible-Spare3312 2026-01-16 14:40

just purchased my 22 m3lr and fsd the entire trip Az - WI. 0 interventions

BlueforNC 2026-01-16 17:10

"if they hold to their word" - oddsmakers are setting this as one chance in a million.

BlueforNC 2026-01-16 17:20

Interesting. I also have FSD in 2018 M3 and I find FSD only somewhat useful in certain situations. Otherwise, it causes me more stress than just driving the car. I am sure HW4 FSD is much better but on HW3 I don't use it very much.

jadequarter 2026-01-16 20:10

autosteer naggs u to nudge the wheel do u have to do that with FSD HW3?

jadequarter 2026-01-16 20:10

for 2k, its worth the upgrade

Terrible-Spare3312 2026-01-16 20:11

only in pitch black, tracks attention via internal camera otherwise and only if I am looking away for too long does it require a nag. then just scrolling a wheel fixed that

squashyogi 2026-01-17 15:59

How did you get hw3 to hw4 upgrade. I have a 2019 model 3 with FSD but still waiting to hear about the update

Electronic-Arm-8731 2026-01-17 18:06

By reading the comment, they bought a new car with HW4.

socrpro192 2026-01-18 01:46

That was my thought. EAP is actually pretty good for highways, so it’s really just rolling a dice on how good FSD gets.

Silverstreak-Folf 2026-01-18 07:14

Like i think it could be worth it i have a 2019 m3 with just auto pilot. I drove a hw3 car with fsd a month ago and it performed way better than than autopilot does on my car night and day i planned to save up to buy the upgrade but idk if it’s gonna be possible for me bleh

lemmtwo 2026-01-18 07:30

What? No. HW3 FSD drives me to work without intervention nearly every day. I’m sure hw4 is way better but hw3 is still usable for some people’s needs.

Icy-Raisin-8350 2026-01-18 15:21

No. The cost does not justify the use. If anything you'd be better off paying on a monthly basis.

AirFlavoredLemon 2026-01-18 22:11

Its tough, because used HW4 cars are getting to the point where its probably a similar cost to get rid of your HW3 car and upgrade to a HW4. Could even get lucky and find a HW4 car with FSD at a 3rd party seller (it keeps its FSD status unless the previous owner did a transfer promo at Tesla). In terms of upgrading your own car - If it was sure fire that HW3 FSD owners get an upgrade at x date - I'd say why not. But at this point in time? Meh. That being said, as a HW3 owner ('19 M3P) with FSD and access to HW4 cars (Cybertruck, MYP) - HW3 FSD is still very very good. But also being said - if you're already using AP to its fullest and never considered FSD; you might not be the type of user for FSD. Maybe you'll convert after purchase.

Lumberjack69420 2026-01-19 15:17

No. HW4 is where all the updates are. Either buy a new tesla now or just factor in the cost to your next purchase decision.

Brinksterrr 2026-01-20 21:14

Sorry I'm based in Europe. It's nerfed here still..

qu4ttro66 2026-01-24 04:51

Seems worth it if you already have EAP like others have stated. For $2k you get HW3 upgrade plus lifetime FSD. I am strongly considering it for my 2018 that I purchased new, since it has under 30k miles and free grandfathered premium connectivity.

NotLikeUs_21 2026-01-24 04:58

Same, I just sent it today. Waiting to schedule my HW3 upgrade

qu4ttro66 2026-01-25 02:49

After purchase of FSD did you have to schedule the HW3 upgrade yourself, or did Tesla reach out about it?

NotLikeUs_21 2026-01-25 03:02

I have a service center appt for other stuff, messaged them to add it to the visit, then they added it and said they ordered the upgrade kit

realTurdFergusun 2026-01-26 17:55

Yes if I've been hands-off for a few minutes.

ambro_ck 2026-02-04 07:03

I bought it for €3700 (m3 Lr 2021 hw3), I hope they regulate it soon in Italy

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