According to ARK invest MONTE CARLOS models Tesla will sell 3.2 - 7.1 million cars per year by 2024!

Ha ha - sounds about par for the course with that nut job running ARK - they’re basically saying Tesla is going to be a gazillion bajillion company, or not much at all. What a bold, insightful forecast.

Just a refresher for everyone what a Monte Carlo model is. It's flipping the coin many times and look at aggregate of the results.

Oh Cathy Woods

oh no ARK makes it sound very, very scientific. Basically, this the bear case is the absolute scientific bottom of what tesla could do. The bull case is ark just being careful and conservative with their meme stock forecast here. \[edit\] one bit that's particularly amusing is that even though Tesla didn't even come close to living up to the bear case, and even though in the bear case its market cap would have its stock speculatively priced for insane growth trajectories, Tesla's stock *still massively exceeds* the bear case market capitalization there. Within an absolutely insane prediction, their stock price / market cap wasn't quite insane enough.

She makes random statements. Once said Tsla would be worth 8 trillion valuation with 5B in net income. I wouldn't take anything she says seriously. Just pumping up the stock cause she's invested. No real insight

As soon as I saw the video of her explain the reason behind the name... Yep bat shit crazy. But the fees are fees.

Well...if he buys one for each of his kids maybe this is right

This was for 2024. Real results were 1.79 million

Supposedly serious analysts at Morgan Stanley and other "experts" aren't much better. IIRC, MS was valuing project Dojo at like $200 billion. When Dojo was quietly killed, MS just took that $200 billion of valuation and stuck it on something else. IIRC, they still value Tesla Insurance as being worth more than all other insurance companies combined.

God told her to invest. Then continues to flush away money in a bull market

Their predictions got crazier the following year, vomiting up this insanity: [https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/tesla-price-target-2](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/tesla-price-target-2) But what is exceedingly crazy is that their market cap of $1.5 trillion in the bear case was actually correct.

And for 2026? The insanity increased 10 fold: [https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/arks-tesla-model](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/arks-tesla-model)

One can only wonder what the results would have been, if Tesla actually launched a $25k Model 2 when promised -- of if it's attempt to become a battery producer was more successful. And if it produced the roadster v.2 when released. The magnitude of the increase predicted for 2020 to 2024 was not itself crazy, based on BYD

You mean the fund that’s run by Cathie Woods? She sure is a genius

33% gross margin? Bear case? lol

There must be more to the many professional investors who continue to support the company. To anyone with a basic understanding of business, the company is destined to either fail or remain stagnant in the best-case scenario. I acknowledge that many of them are betting on Elon Musk, but how can anyone trust him to make sound decisions anymore? He is actively harming his companies by speaking out, attempting to destabilize countries, and being racially divisive. The only scenario I can envision where things might work out is if he has influential friends, such as the Saudis. They will continue to support him until he stumbles upon a successful product. However, even then, no socially conscious individual will purchase his product, limiting his potential customer base.

Can’t wait for the documentary in about 10 years on how absolutely fucking ridiculous everything surrounding this company is

Adam Jonas is not a serious analyst.

🤣

In Cathie's defense, she WAS right about the Robotaxi 2024 revenue in her bear case

“Drugs are bad… mkay?”

The issue with these Monte Carlo outputs is always the same: they treat operating leverage as smooth and predictable. Real world constraints (factory throughput, labor, supply chain lag, pricing power) don’t scale the way the models assume. The spread between 3.2M and 7.1M tells you more about the uncertainty than the forecast.

So when the year rolls over from 9999 to 0000 and hits 2024 again?! ....yeah. possibly.

I do not think the coin face 'Elon sieg heil' was part of the set

I guess if they really believed in 2022 there was 50% chance robotaxis would be launched in 2025 that could make sense

Yep, the whole point is to get some idea of an average or likely case given a ton of different variables and scenarios. Problem with ARK's methodology is that their entire set of assumptions and range of possible outcomes is completely bullshit to begin with. They range from Tesla being a very successful company to Tesla delivering on every fever dream Musk has ever publicized and more. Their goal isn't to actually come up with an accurate forecast of the company's operation and value, it's to apply a thin veneer of credibility to the idea that Tesla chronically undervalued and destined to succeed.

That's gods way of teaching humility

If I remember correctly, by 2026 Tesla was expected to sell 25 million cars a year.

It was $500 Billion

I sat at the next table over from her at an EXPENSIVE restaurant and ease dropped for over an hour. She definitely isn’t all there. I didn’t recognize any of the other folks at her table but it was pretty obvious she was a shameless grifter, only this time she was pitching to obviously very wealthy “investors” or technocrats. Whatever moves she and ARK make, inverse like Cramer. It was wild to see her in the wild, but crazy as fuck to hear her pitch. Little Silicon Valley location. Just ignore anything she says, my best advice based on that encounter.

Bear case 33% margins?!? They achieved that for like one quarter at the height of the covid car shortage. Completely insane

Analysts don't predict anything they are just reacting to the current price action. There are no professionals thinking this company is undervalued. It's just a retail lodestar