This is awesome! I hope people who paid FSD upfront get it for free
relevant quote: "... there is some chance that HW3 does not achieve the safety level that allows for unsupervised FSD, eh, you know. There's some chance to that. And if that turns out to be the case, we will upgrade those who bought HW3 FSD for free. And we have designed the system to be upgradeable..."
Still waiting for my hubcaps for a truck I bought in April of ‘23.
They actually made good on the upgrade to Hw3, so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt. Granted, a lot of HW3 vehicles will be off the road by the time FSD is actually ready.
A HW4 upgrade for Tesla's is entirely possible if Tesla wants to do it. TBH if they offered it as a $2000 upgrade, people would totally buy it. Indicator cameras, forward camera and the computer. Done. Those cameras can be swapped out in <15 minutes. While your in the dealership, they could sell other upgrades. EG new wheels, ventilated seats.
Great, if you spend freaking 15k USD on FSD he will upgrade your car to hw4. But what if you want fsd as monthly subscription? Guess you're fucked...
Ok, so 100% they can't, got it.
$8k
Still.
Too bad they won’t upgrade me to Ryzen also
We did the first time. 2017 S with AP2 now AP3 running a jerky twitchy version of FSD Supervised on 12.5.4.1 I doubt they’re going to do this again, I think they’ll expect attrition and vehicle death to take over negating the need for retrofits again. Just my $0.02
You were only off by $7K
Then why the hell did Elon say it was technically very challenging to upgrade last year?
Hardware\^n vehicles will be retrofitted
From September 2023 to April 2024 it was $15k so maybe chill out.
This is why I think Tesla has been offering fsd transfers, it's a way to hedge, this way they can reduce the number of cars with HW3 that has bought FSD so eventually if they do need to upgrade it l it's less cars to upgrade
To encourage ppl to take the FSD transfer offer, more ppl give up their FSD HW3 vehicles at no cost to Tesla, less upgrades Tesla is on the hook for
All the other months, it was not
Word!
HW4 upgrade of the chip is partially useless. It’s the far superior cameras that is the real upgrade in the cars that natively have HW4 in them (late 2023 onward). Both complement each other. Just the chip upgrade isn’t enough.
You are missing the point. What about the owners of HW3 vehicle who were promised autonomy by Musk prior to purchasing the car, and want to enjoy it via the monthly subscription?
What about HW2.5 vehicles that retrofitted HW3?
I was over the moon when I heard that. It's been five years for me. Australia.
Gimme rear screen and LED dash retrofit to my MY please!
This is amazing news!
That’s just not true at all. HW3 has a latency budget that limits speed and other things
I said partially useless. Which means it is absolutely partially useful. But the cameras on HW3 cars are objectively worse (especially their low light performance and color reproduction) compared to HW4. And in a “vision only” system, cameras matter. That’s all I was saying.
Useless? I disagree. I do agree that the hw4 cameras Will be missed. It has been my experience and the experience of YouTubers I've watched that HW3 cars seemingly cannot identify perpendicularly oncoming vehicles based on which lane they are in. So when making a left or right hand turn, FSD will wait for all lanes to be clear before proceeding. Whereas HW4, as shown by Chuck Cook and others, can complete the turn into the nearest empty lane even when other lanes have oncoming traffic. So while an upgraded HW3 to HW-4 car will be able to safely self-drive theoretically, I believe it will do so while taking longer to complete a given route.
That part
Partially useless. HW4 AND cameras retrofit is the real upgrade. Just HW4 can only get you so far given it’s a vision only system with worse cameras from HW3 era.
Assuming this is going to be customer pay unless you purchased fsd prior to unsupervised release
When did Musk or Tesla promise HW3 would receive any needed hardware upgrades with a subscription to FSD? Even when they first released FSD subscriptions, they charged HW2 owners a fee to upgrade to HW3, separate from the subscription fee.
And it’s coming in one year ! Along with the roadster!
They’ve e been offering FSD transfers to move more vehicles. It’s as simple as that.
The subscription model didn't exist before when Musk promised FSD to those that actually paid full price for it.
Should cover them if they paid for FSD up front
You don’t have access to Tesla’s feasibility studies. But also Elon can’t be taken literally either
They already did HW3 retrofits
It would take time to develop that package. They have other priorities like Cybertruck, Highlander and Juniper, and taxis. Oh and self driving itself. After those, yeh, sure. It would still cost more than the HW2 ->HW3 upgrade. They have to do computers and at least some main cameras. If they had to do side pillars etc, the price goes up and becomes less viable. But hardware gets cheaper with time, and front cameras are by far the most important. He didn't say its impossible. Just challenging.
He didn't say anything about the way the owner is going to get fsd, just promised that any car Tesla has ever sold will receive fsd. Very convinient to say it won't be relevant for subscribers.
Doesn't really feel newsworthy. If they achieve full autonomy unsupervised self driving, then those that paid or subscribed will have to get it, whether it's on HW3 or HW4.
Awesome but that’s if HW3 owners still have their cars (within the next 5 yrs?) by the time UFSD is out .
How about for subscribers?
Unless you bury it in the garden or write it off, the car will still exist after you move on.
It's a win-win-win for Tesla, then
Yes I have one 2017 3 Took 3 years to get
Glad I paid for FSD, let's see what happens. Not interested in getting rid of our '23 MRLY any time soon.
Style 5!
On the other hand - my MY 2024 Y (delivered in December) still has HW3.
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Isn't their a wattage issue going from HW3 VS HW4?
Don't forget the Roadster, still a work in progress. They've got their deposits though.
Don't expect to see fsd in Aus any form in less than 3-5 years
Just remember, they’re going to try their darndest to get HW3 to work before falling back to this, so don’t count on it happening anytime soon.
Just don't succeed at solving FSD until all HW3 vehicles are already sold, junked, or living their 3rd life in Slovakia. FSD buyers hate this one simple trick!
there are 2 million hw3 cars. probably 5% bought fsd outright 100K cars - ~2K per car = $200M cost
Can anyone tell me how to find out whether I have hw3 or how to tell? I have a MYLR7 and took delivery in 2021 September
Watt do you mean?
Does this mean pre fresh model s will get HW4 as an upgrade option
Except he said the cameras wouldn't be upgraded. It's a computer upgrade only and the current cameras are "capable"
Watt I'm saying is that FSD3 computers were designed as an upgrade for HW2 cars.Elon talked about the 100 Watt limitation when designing the HW3 Computer chip. I'm pretty sure HW4 has higher Watts so how is it now backward compatible now?
Cost to Tesla will be more like $500/car at the scale they operate. Also this will span 3+ years and start may be 2yrs from now... So.. 50m over next 5yrs Peanuts compared to the assurance they gave today and good will generated
He said those who purchased FSD will have the computer upgraded if it's necessary. At the time I purchased the car it had Hardware 2.5. Couple of years later around 2020 when an update came out with the traffic lights, traffic cones display and surrounding cars years ago I was upgraded to Hardware 3.0. I had already purchased FSD in 2018 Model 3.
And when HW4 can't achieve it?
Hope to keep the HW3-> HW4 free transfer going until they solve unsupervised FSD, I think a portion of owners are happy to continue to buy Tesla, but didn't want to pay for FSD again.
I’d rather have this than HW4. Intel Atom is soooo slow.
You have HW3.
Y’all are gullible af
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1831601961965080933?t=xGpL8vknmfgrdd1ZSWwlyA&s=19 Still I'm keeping this car. Will be my last car.
He said the cars are FSD capable. If you don't use it then the FSD computer wouldn't matter. You can still drive the car as is. If you don't have the required hardware and subscribe to FSD then you'd pay for the FSD hardware (3.0 as of those writing) if you're coming from Hardware 2/2.5. Which to my understanding is $1k at the moment. If the user fully paid for FSD (Not subscription) then the computer would be upgraded complimentary if they're coming from older hardware.
“Backport the kernels” 😂
Reduce power consumption by using more advanced semiconductor manufacturing processes, ex. an underclocked HW5
r/unexpectedoffice
Pff, don't make me dream about ventilated seats
when did they start using HW4?
2k, but those people paid 8k minimum for lifetime fsd.. so.. not really losing any money, and it’s a relatively small amount at that
Also, they may only be changing the computer. Elon said the cameras are mostly fine and probably won’t need to be changed
None of my issues with FSD have been camera related. The car sees the environment correctly, it just doesn’t make the best decisions sometimes given the cars and lanes around it. Though every update the decisions get better.
Supplying enough power was never a restriction; the DC-DC conversion capability on cars of the HW2/3 era is in the neighborhood of >2 kW. It was the packaging (liquid cooling, wire harness) complexities and camera swaps involved that made it more of a time-intensive job than HW2 to HW3 was.
They just need to redesign the complete HW4 as it is in no way compatible with a HW3 car, they then need to fit it, using work hours.. So I do think you need to recalculate... alot.
Makes me think they shouldn't bother doing any retrofits until they get Level 4/5 actually working. Can't wait for my HW 7 retrofit!
It may not seem newsworthy to someone with HW4, but if we HW3 people need to wait months in the queue to get to us, like we did with HW2.5->HW3, it would be an issue we'd like to know about.
Ehh.. I have a HW2.5 -> HW3 car too. No biggie.
Thx
THERE HE IS, the guy with a brain. It's like playing a game of "find waldo" in here.
Just, that HW4 can't be retrofitted to HW3 as is. I call this another lie.
The other problem is going to be the value of these cars at that point. Lets say that Tesla *actually* achieves unsupervised driving in about 3 years, which I think is optimistic. You then have some old HW3 cars approaching 8 years old with probably 100k+ miles, and probably worth well under 20k at that point.
Also it isn't designed to be upgradable from HW3 to HW4
Exactly, on paper it sounds simple enough but all that time, energy, development, production, and support hours needs to be factored in for this “yet another” one-off band-aid that has a dwindling useful life. I suspect they will never upgrade HW3 hardware and instead offer sweeteners to trade-in/upgrade the vehicle itself.
In general, car companies hate offering retrofits because they want to sell new cars.
Yes, but some of the cars will be approaching 10 years old. Most will still be on the road, but slowly approaching their end of life.
I get that but I still think it’s leaving money on the table for people not in the market to buy a whole new car
This is incorrect. They never stated that hardware 4 would be the upgrade. In fact, they previously stayed at hardware 4 was incompatible.
The problem is that if you offer retrofits, you might sell 4 retrofits and 1 less new car, but that might result in less profit at the end of the day.
Will this apply to HW5 when it will be proven that HW4 can’t handle unsupervised FSD as well? Then HW6, etc?
From elon's word, sounds like they are swapping the compute and not the camera. Swapping camera would require complete rewiring.
this is because I feel he is upgrading the HW3 board without upgrading the camera. There are now two unknowns, camera res and compute, is HW3's 720p res enough and is HW3's compute using a compressed + optimized model enough.
And I feel, for most people who replace their car every 6-7 years, it's about time to get a new car in 2025-2027
MCU 1 owners be like :|
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This makes sense, I could see this.
No. He said, quote: “So it’s really just a “switch out the computer” type of thing. The cameras, they are capable. “
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That was about whether or not the comp upgrade was needed or not. In any case I’m not holding my breath. They will delay saying hw3 isn’t capable for as long as possible and keep pushing free FSD transfer in the hopes people just upgrade the cars. My bet is it’ll be multiple years before people who stay with HW3 actually get computers swapped
Or just replace components to bring the performance up to hw4 or 5 spec that will work within hw3 power consumption and thermal management.
You can shit on Elon and Tesla for a lot of things, but they already did the same thing for upgrading people to HW3 from older versions for free. It might be a bit of a pain and have to wait, but there is no reason to believe they won't upgrade people to HW4 who bought FSD.
Lmao. but when HW10, 11, 12. 13 & 14 doest achieve it, will my HW3 get free upgrade to HW15?
So the massive amount of people with FSD and HW3 are just stuck with no updates for 1-2 years? Not a viable solution
You think Elon is the one designing the process for the retrofit?
I might be crazy but I have no plans to upgrade my 2016 Model S especially now that I know it's got a path to continue receiving FSD updates. There's just something special about buying a car for life. Barring a total loss, I am not getting rid of it!
More likely they will have to design a specific upgrade. That, or they were bullshitting us when they said HW3 was NOT upgradable.
Your math’n wrong bruh. It’s $750m in profit. I used the half way between $11,000 and $6000 current. And maybe $900 in tesla costs for computer and labor. So tesla loses out on their original $750 only. Hence why he said “those who bought it”
RIGHT i recall him saying they can not upgrade it. Well well…
Honestly this is all I really am hoping for. I'm super happy with fsd in it's current state even if I have to pay attention. I'll literally never buy a car again without it. So if they can gaurentee a upgrade path to HW5 when I eventually need a new vehicle then great.
Would probably be smarter to upgrade HW3 to AI5, just saying
Did you also say this prior to Tesla doing 2.5 -> 3 upgrades?
Doubtful, based on how HW 2.5->3 was handled.
> just promised that any car Tesla has ever sold will receive fsd. No, will be capable. Not that they would receive it. And with a paid upgrade (if necessary), they'd be capable.
The thing is, *any* car sold in the past by any manufacturer, will be capable of level 5 autonomy in the future, assuming hardware upgrade. So what is Musk promising here that make Tesla cars special on this regard?
This is part of the reason why they started offering FSD transfers because they've been trying to get as many FSD owners (people who paid outright) into newer vehicles to reduce their liability.
HW4.0a/b HW4.5 etc. would likely be the term for an upgraded HW2.5/HW3 car. They simply have to design a new board, but the question is whether they'd replace the camera systems which is far more complex and I doubt that they will on that. I swapped from my 2018 Tesla 3 for a 2024 HW4 equipped Y, and the while the higher resolution and image quality is better, it is not a safety related better but kind of how you can still be functional with 15/20 vision vs 20/20.
HW4 design is completely different form factor, wiring, cables, signal types etc. aren't compatible compared to HW3. Its like Mac vs Windows. You can make it work, but not without a lot of work.
What was the manufacture date though? Bottom right sticker in the front driver door. AFAIK, they transitioned all production to HW4 by August 2023.
He decides the priorities and where money should be spent.
Not if they just increase HW compute resources and skip the camera upgrade. The other option is upgrade camera resolution but keep the same wiring, but the image quality or signal integrity may not be the same. There may be other solutions to increase camera quality/resolution without changing the wiring as well.
Not sure what truck you bought in April 2023 that has hard to acquire hubcaps.
The real question is can they get HW4 level cameras on HW3 wiring? If not then I highly doubt HW4 cameras will be part of the upgrade. Alternately there may be a technical solution to get HW4 level quality on the same wiring (look at our internet infrastructure today on cable, or powerline communication).
Exactly!
I mean, my car is 6 years old now. At some point, likely in the past, a retrofit that \*might\* happen at some point in the future doesn't really make up for the years of Elon promising FSD would be fully realized.
Cybertruck
Well that paired with the fact they no longer offer paid outright unsupervised FSD... They changed the language a few months ago so now with a new car you can only buy Supervised FSD. I assume if they offer it (when it's available) the unsupervised lifetime price will go up.
Yep, that’s the plan. Elon said the retrofit will be done AFTER HW4 reaches Level 5. That should be around the end of the year again, right?
I think it was not specific to get upgraded to HW4. Afaik, there has been information that HW4 is not suitable for retrofit. Perhaps AI5 has been designed to be able to retrofit HW3 or older gen cars?
Will believe it when I see it
HW3 was designed to be upgradable. HW4 was NOT designed to be a upgrade for HW3. Simple as that. Or, in computer terms: My 1990 386-PC with its 16-bit ISA-bus was designed to be upgradable. A 2024 RTX4090 CPU is not an upgrade for that PC. But that doesn't mean NVIDIA couldn't make a new modern ISA-bus GPU if they wanted to.
And i would say we would rather see a RTX4090 for ISA bus than HW4 retrofit.
Wow, that's a serious reach. I hope you did some calisthenics before hand, wouldn't want you to hurt yourself.
What country do you live in? Some countries still are getting HW3.
where is this 2 million figure from?
That would mean they are bullshitting us now. But it’s not like Mac and windows, it is more like 68k and PowerPC. Apple DID release a PowerPC daughter board to upgrade an existing Motorola Mac to PowerPC, but of course performance was lower than on a native PowerPC computer. The fact that it is or isn’t a lot of work for Tesla is immaterial, but I would be curious to compare a native HW4 car with an upgraded one.
At this point, I would rather just get a one time FSD transfer that doesn't expire personally.
in 15 years when its ready there will only be a handfull left to retrofit
I wouldn't bet on that. So far Tesla's track record of keeping the "buying FSD means we will retrofit the hardware if necessary" promise is good, whereas NVIDIA has no track record of making versions of their GPUs for ancient systems at all. Unless your stressing the "4" in that sentence. Then, sure, I also don't expect a HW4 retrofit. It will be based on HW5 or 6 if and when in comes.
Who said Nvidia has to do that? I won: http://www.sykejichina.com/en/content/?275.html Edit: Sorry, While title states to be PCIE to ISA it's old PCI as a host taking in ISA. We need the other way around.
So .. put it in the same shape box with the same connector? What else changed? The signalling protocol on the cameras - that's a device driver. Steering/ acceleration control? Two outputs. Each effectively a single number.
.. Macs ran windows. You still can with a VM
What bus do you think is in your car for this? Computer busses standardized to USB, PCIe and Ethernet years and years ago. Maybe CANbus but you can't fit video feeds over it, and I wouldn't send steering/acceleration/braking controls over it.
The key is to have FSD stick with the person, not the car.
Come on he's a businessman! Of course he's gonna say it's challengingn when he doesn't want to do it and it's easy when he wants to do it. Ut's hard to ascribe an absolute sense of truth to such questions anyways so it's very easy and even legitimate to be a bit ambivalent with how you "feel" about it (for your own benefit ;))
I think a 68k vs. PPC is an easier comparison and upgrade compared to Mac vs. Windows transition since as you mentioned it has been done and there was performance differences. But thinking about the input's / outputs of what a HW3 vs. HW4 machine is: 1 - the FSD computer 2 - The wiring and communication protocols between the camera systems and the FSD computer 3 - The wiring and communication protocols between the MCU and FSD computer (still not 100% sure if these are combined on the 3/Y) 4 - The differences for FSD/MCU combinations on older S/X (Dash screen, MCU, FSD computer) 5 - Heating/Cooling requirements between the Ryzen / HW4 vs. Intel / Ryzen MCU There's definitely some considerations and all those variations could lead to some interesting options between a HW3 combination to a HW4 + older MCU combination. Tesla did eventually make FSD with HW3 work with a MCU1 afterall, but they also had to upgrade the cameras on older AP2 vehicles to at least the AP2.5 camera set (which are the same as AP3/HW3). For reference I had a Performa 575 in my childhood with the associated riser board option for the IBM/PPC 601 RISC upgrade but being 7 years old, I could only dream of affording that upgrade before it became obsolete lol. By the time I could save all my pennies, I decided to purchase a new machine rather than upgrade the old girl.
I am not saying it will be easy, and as usual when Elon promises stuff, it is the engineers who have to sleep at their desks. But it is probably not impossible. Everything is connected to the same bus, and it is in theory possible to replace all the components by adapting the connections to the existing ones. Again, possible does not mean easy. But it’s their problem, not the customer’s. Or maybe they will delay it until people get pissed and buy new cars.
I have Model 3 2018 with FSD purchased, in early 2020, I have noticed there was no visual objects after the major update, so I requested the service. Tesla service said that's due to the graphic card is too old, so they upgrade it to the newer one for free. This time in 2024, they will upgrade it to 4.0 for free again, thank you, Tesla!
FSD transfer is the optimal way, but they did eventually get FSD to work on MCU1 Model S/X as well. I'm very aware of how Elon promises and Tesla engineers and management then goes "he said WHAT" then a apply a proper face palm having seen it myself.
They will probably delay it so long that a lot of HW3 car leases will have expired, gently pushing “owners” (in quotes because leasing is not owning) towards newer models. Damm, if Tesla had more respect for existing customers (read: they did not lowball trade in offers for Teslas) I would already be driving a Highland.
Curious can I pay Tesla to just upgrade my car right now to HW4?
The problem I see are the 2021 HW3 vehicles with a nickel battery. I can't see a HW4 retro fit with a nickel battery and a 12 V battery instead of a 14V.
Tesla lost me with the words, ....."If they cannot achieve unsupervised FSD." There are so many questions. Where? when? timeline? Cost? We'll see.
Upgrading to Hardware 4 would include the Ryzen Chip...
Upgrading to Hardware 4 would include the Ryzen processor... That is part of Hardware 4.
What makes you say that? There are HW3 cars on both Atom and Ryzen cars. HW4 could be run on an Atom car because it’s a different computer entirely.
It is absolutely upgradeable, it would just be a new board with a new chipset and it would probably take less than an hour to install. Likely a Tesla mobile service thing.
Yeah, that's why they don't do that.
I paid for FSD in 2019…and they are retrofitting my car for free! this is the second time I get a retrofit
Sell me a new Model S at cost, then there's no need to waste time with retrofit... \*wink\*
Would hardware 4 need the upgraded cameras as well or would it be fine with the old cameras?
Hoping for another retrofit to keep my 2018 M3 kicking.
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