Paywall bypass: [https://archive.ph/TFgen](https://archive.ph/TFgen)
Well I mean, waymo has been operating for longer with fewer crashes.... so...... Naturally it will be Tesla
Nobody
trillion? It's a 100 billion total addressable market and that's generous.
Better question is what excuse Elon will have when he exits the “Robotaxi” market in a few years.
Waymo will win and then be acquired by someone. They are expanding like crazy.
It's owned by google already so unless there's some trust busting, it's probably staying put.
True.
Where the fuck do they think we'll all be robo-taxiing off to if AI is taking all of our jobs?! With what money will we pay them all this expected revenue?!
Obviously Tesla was never a car company and thus can't be a taxi company
Uber be like, wait, it’s been a trillion dollar market all along? Why am I not making money?
Investors and shareholders.
Waymo, Robotaxi, Zoox, Aurora Innovation, Uber, Lyft, legacy taxis. All chasing a slice of a market that hardly exists outside of large cities and tourist destinations, none of which will be competitive in developing nations with lower labor costs. There a significant chance that *none* of the autonomous taxi companies will ever break even.
Let me throw another thing in there for you. None of these are fully autonomous. Which means two things:- 1. There are support staff watching for when vehicles request guidance. That has to be paid for. 2. You need very reliable internet connections to allow for support staff, so you aren't going to get robotaxis going much beyond urban areas. I'm very sceptical about robotaxis and whether they're a bit of a Mechanical Turk scam, or just end up serving limited areas.
They say trillion cus it’s the only way to rationalize the inflated prices.
This is the correct take. They come up with $1T by assuming that robotaxis will replace all private autos. Which is, of course, total nonsense.
The excuse is well known. Tesla will (probably) be the best, most successful, largest, best and best AI chip producer in the world. Next year, 2030 or 2040. fElon just reviewed the final design! Running! 👍🏻
$1T! The market isn't that big.
In a few yeas the bubble will likely have already poppped and Tesla defunct.
You mean nobody wants to go to work in an autonomous taxi after some drunk puked all over the interior the night before on his way home?
You can add MOIA (Volkswagen) and Wayve to that list and let’s not forget all the Chinese companies that will no doubt operate through DiDi.
Assuming you replace all human operators.
I’ll sooner walk.
No, corporate “market is worth XYZ” speak means before expenses, and driver costs wouldn’t be removed from that
Owned by Alphabet group, Google’s parent company
Uber is on track to do 200 billion in gross bookings a year. Self driving will probably lower costs and make that a good bit larger (cause it'll be used more).
Same thing that happened when the loom was introduced. Product prices went down and wages eventually increased. Overall increased the standard of living for everyone. You take thousands out of driving people around and they take other jobs that are more productive. Eventually you have more people as doctors/nurses/engineers/etc.
We won't need robotaxis, everyone will have personal jetpacks and then teleportation, matter transmutation, super powers for everyone, oh and sustainable abundance
I think there are going to be several companies providing self driving. Which the market is going to look as the car market in the end
At the moment they do not pay the operating cost of the cars. The drivers do. With robotics they just replace the cost of drivers with the operating cost of a taxi fleet. That‘s probably not cheaper in the end. But I do agree on the possibility of longer running hours. But your customers will still want a taxi at the same times of the day, they do now. So there will still be down times.
The loom did create new job opportunities and enable industrialization of fabric production. That Industry does a robotaxi create?
Didn‘t thy cancel their own chip production?
And Baidu
This ☝️ a comment that is way too much ignored by the TSLA fanboys and pumpers.
It reduces an unnecessary job freeing up a workforce that can do something more productive. Tell me, what did being a taxi driver produce? That has the same significance.
It provides convenient transportation for people who need to get somewhere faster than with public transport and without their own car. What automating this will create is more unemployed people, but not more job opportunities.
I think he’s saying that those people that would have been employed as taxi drivers can then do other, more productive jobs.
Nobody will win because the entire autonomous taxi concept makes no sense as a business.
Mechanical looms reduced costs massively and icreased production by orders of magnitude creating a global export industry for Britain. Automated taxis will have minimal effect.
Why would they drive a taxi, if that were an option?
I don’t understand your question. Why would they drive a taxi if what was an option?
Another job
They are taking taxi jobs because they are available. If they are not available due to that job being automated then they can do another, and hopefully more meaningful, job.
AI should've been smothered at birth.
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Why would they not? It pays well. Why would you do any job if there was an option?
It helped the world over. AI can also do that. Get red of a bunch of menial jobs resulting in people being in jobs that are more productive. Same as the loom or any other advancement.
No matter who wins "we the people" lose. The robo anything game is like global thermal nuclear war, the only way to win is not to play.
And the stock just jumped 10 percent on your announcement!
One aspect that never gets talked about is that yeah, modern cars are extremely reliable, and usable as daily drivers no problem. A typical person will spend 2-3 hours in their car, a rideshare driver might run their car 8-12 hours a day. If you want waymos running 24/7, you're talking about 2-10x the amount of time the motor, brakes, and rest of the car is getting used. That's going to be several times more maintenance, several times more wear and tear. I suspect thats going to eat into savings generated by labor replacement quite a bit.
People do those bottom tier jobs because they cant qualify for anything else. You get rid of them, and they arent automatically going to be able to find, much less qualify, interview and get hired for more complex jobs. And if you think fired uber drivers will result in more doctors and engineers, you are insanely deluded.... there is NO MONEY
Depends on the technology they use. With electric cars, like they use right now, the computers will optimize driving to reduce wear as good as they can. What‘s new? Changan, I think, just debuted a new car with very light hub motors and no dedicated brakes. All the braking is done by the motors. This would eliminate the brake wear from the maintenance equation. Also eliminated microplastic and particle emissions from the brakes as well.
Uber does it by offloading the cost of the car and the insurance that are the dominant costs. The driver is the cheap part.
Some people will and some will not. So the market will never be 100%.
Sit down you’re not funny
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