What do you guys think of these milestones for Elon big package?

Elon Musk defines all his cars as robots so 1 million robots delivered should happen within 6 months.

Twitter buys 1,000,000 robots for $10 each

Elon's tiny package I am wondering if recalls count against deliveries. Also, shouldn't there be revenue numbers for these rather than volume numbers? Also, Tesla shareholder voters who voted no should be selling and getting away from a poorly managed asylum.

What are the rewards for each truanch

1% of the company each step

Milestones 1, 2, 3 he can do with toy cars and robots, handed out at his diners to kids. Market value 1-3 pumping by podcasting he solved world hunger and poverty, as well as world health care and free surgery for everyone with Optimus. 4 is easy: buy Uber for an easy 200b from leveraging the first tranche - rebrand Uber to robotaxi, declare the Uber driver safety driver until regulatory approval allows him to be a robot - pump stock a bit more. 1-4: can be done within 3-6 months. Who gives a shit about milestones 5+. TSLA was never about making profit, just about selling stock and be rich.

"active", "delivered", "robot" will be weaseled into meaning whatever the welfare queen needs them to mean. The EBITDA ones never mattered. It's been a scheme to justify easily collecting the first few by using the total outrageousness of the rest.

Wow, SpaceX is going to be a predictable buying frenzy.

I think the "Market Value Milestones" say it all. It's a license for Musk to lie, cheat, and steal in any way necessary to raise the market value of Tesla. Serious question: Who even ties a bonus to a metric like that? Isn't net profit, or even gross sales a much better indicator of a company's strength and health? Enron's market value was amazingly high... until it wasn't.

He does a contract with his other companies and friends to hit them all. It’s too easy at this point honestly. Notice non of them mention anything actually having to work.

Elmo could just buy them all, and get reimbursed with the $1T

Exactly

May be he will buy all those cars through private equity or another company call "ElonMax" (like carmax), then sell it for 20% less than original price using his $1 Trilion dollas? Still profitable

I remember reading The Smartest Guy in the Room more than 15 years ago. Enron's top mgmt had a culture that was obsessed with share price The world was shocked that they were messing with people's lives then by turning the power plant on and off for energy price manipulation and not to mention all the money lost in people's retirement fund. Now we have a guy that's not only the smartest in the room, but viewed by many a true out of this world level genius. I wonder how many lives Elon will eventually ruin. Unlike the Enron situation though, you don't need a deep understanding of a company's financials to see how insane amd fraudulent everything around Tesla is.

I think 20 million vehicles delivered is pretty doable over time and he should be able to reach it within 10-15 years if nothing else change. Unless they meant per year? Then 0 shot. 10 million active FSD subscription. I think this one is pretty achievable too if they bring the price down to around 10-30 bucks a month. 1 million robots delivered. Not sure what counts as a "robot". But if they play around with the description of a robot this is very doable. 1 million robotaxies. I can see the red states allowing all of these so doable as well. Safety are for losers amirite? I dont know how close they are to the rest, but if I know Elon and Tesla, they will probably play around with the numbers for this to make sense. Regardless of how well the company does. Overall, I think that because the board of Elon's friends all voted for it, and Elon approves of it, then I think these are all realistic goals. At the end of the day, Elon is here to farm money and if there are incentives where he personally benefits from, then I think they would've done the due diligence to make sure those incentives are achievable.

I don't think any of these are within reach

It won't happen. It's all theater. Since inception they have only sold just over 7M cars. This plan expects an average of 2M per year, from a company that people are now boycotting specifically because of him. FSD is still vaporware and won't happen unless Wile Elon Coyote gives in to sound engineering like lidar.

They'll order 500k sets of Rockem Sockem Robots.

\> It's a license for Musk to lie, cheat, and steal in any way necessary to raise the market value of Tesla. So he'll continue doing what he's always been doing. \> Who even ties a bonus to a metric like that? Isn't net profit, or even gross sales a much better indicator of a company's strength and health? Yes, but fundamentals are irrelevant to this scam.

They said 20 millions car cumulative. It is not clear if that is from the date of the package or from Tesla's origin. Tesla currently delivers about 1.8 million cars a year. If they can't sell 20 million in 10 years in an expanding EV market something is very wrong. They don't say what FSD is, so 10 million should be easy. $2 trillion market cap is a pretty modest rate of growth. If the stock doesn't do at least well Musk should probably be fired. So, first two tranches should be doable with unspectacular operations.

[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-what-elon-musk-needs-to-do-to-earn-his-tesla-trillion-164739829.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-what-elon-musk-needs-to-do-to-earn-his-tesla-trillion-164739829.html)

Maybe he'll buy a lot of cars tied to government contracts at SpaceX, etc. so he doesn't pay for them. His multiple companies are turning into a shell game.

It depends on the definitioins of things like "car" and "robot". For all we know he's going to buy Mattel and count 20M Hot Wheels.

Yeah, looking at the breakdown, the first two of these seem doable even with the utmost negligence. I believe the majority of tesla owners would subscribe to FSD if it was like 30 bucks a month since that's just the price of netflix.

The corresponding "market value" milestone must also be met for each tranche to unlock. Stocks are already hot (not just Tesla, but particularly Tesla), so the "market value" milestones will be hard to hit no matter how many "operational" milestones are met.

$2 trilion market cap can be reached with Flying car dream

Ebitda is easier to manipulate then FCF.

Elon is Dream Merchant. He just need 12 dreams.

It'll take 3 things to get him there: Hype Gaming the stats Inflation

SpaceX is basically just straight up fraud at this point.

For him, nothing need to happen. Board is still in his hands, they just need to come up some weird logic.

>It's a license for Musk to lie, cheat, and steal in any way necessary to raise the market value of Tesla. Core competency.

This list reads like the levels in a video game.

With free FSD subscriptions, when robots cannot even use FSD

Theranos managed to keep their scam hidden for awhile. This scam is right out in the open and on a much grander scale yet nothing has been done by law enforcement or regulators. He owns someone!

other than cheap older cars…. what do they really have… the charging network is reportedly pretty good… but the robotaxi is a dud… the robots cant really dance that well… and the cybertruck is a massive sinkhole

He has been Enron Musk since he moved to Texas.

Doesn’t matter since I’m sure he can find a way borrow against the trillion whether he actually gets it or not.

He does NOT have a big package if you follow my drift 🤭

All of the many government agencies that were investigating Tesla, SpaceX and Neuralink conveniently got shut down or de-funded during the illegal DOGE DC rampage.

April 2022 but more relevant now: https://www.readmargins.com/p/elons-giant-package?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Who cares. Ain’t my money.

That’s going to take a long, long time. At a rate of 1000 cars a month, and keep in mind that don’t have that many on the road in Austin yet, it will take over 80 years to reach 1M cars.

His scams have been running for a couple decades now. He should have been put down a long time before Gump or Doge.

Full Self Delusion.

It’s worse due to his loans most of the major financial institutions are linked to Tesla in the form of billions of dollars. All with stocks as collateral. Once Tesla goes over the cliff those banks won’t have time to collect the collateral before it becomes worthless.  That is why so many of them have high price targets on Tesla and buy rating. They need to keep the price high so they can continue to collect hundreds of millions in interest each year.  When this collapses it is going to take a lot of the financial industry with it.

It’s a 100 billion dollar pay package hidden in a trillion dollar pay package. Everyone will think they are getting a bargain when they only have to pay Elon a tenth of this pay package.  This is going to be a major case study in MBA programs in 20 years.

I feel like the trillion dollar hoopla was just bait to get shareholders to give him access to Tesla’s purse strings.

I met Elon once. It was way back in 2014 when I collected one of the first UK Model S's. It was a bizarre situation - no one knew who he was back then. He wasn't a billionaire, and the event was strictly invite only for people that were all super excited to get their cars. (And all high net worth.) Elon turned up late in a courtage of blacked out Mercedes while the place was full of private security dudes with headsets on. It was at that point I realized the guy had either some serious delusion issues, or alternatively knew a lot about what the CIA were planning to launch into orbit. Given where we are now, I suspect the latter !!

**They sell those bots to themselves, like they did with Cybertruck.** 1$ per unit = 10m spent = 1billion gained. As for the **Taxis**; he will tell regular drivers "you now can use our app! you are part of our fleet now!" (even though you dont use it, you could = totally counts! As for the **20m 'cars sold':** well, ask **Canada** how 1 trader suddenly had THOUSANDS of registrations an hour (just before tax credits ran out)... #totallyhappenedyouguys

But he also has to sell 12 Mio cars which is 1.67x the amount of cars Tesla has sold in the last 17 years.

You're a fucking joke

Yes, Tesla could sell the vehicles and robots at a loss in order to meet those benchmarks.

Yeah, he's not likely to meet any of these milestones. But this is like paying someone a million dollars if they manage to get to the office in the morning. Then another ten million for working until lunch. A cool million for grabbing a coffee at 10 AM. Another five for getting back from lunch on time. Then ten million more for the rest of the day, with a five million dollar bonus for each task completed - sending an email counts as one task. Repeat daily. Let's pay this one charlatan 100,000,000 times more generously than anyone else on the planet. Yeah. Human civilization is badly broken, way off track, and in need of a house cleaning and major course correction. No one embodies it better than this piece of shite.

This is a little different though. This is basically Enron, but everyone knows and accepts it’s a fraud and we all get to participate in having the feeling of wealth so long as we arent the last ones holding the bag when it inevitably collapses.

None of those are important. What is important is the text that says if the absolutely-and-totally-independent board deems any of the objectives to be unachievable due to external factors (eg. pesky government regulations on self driving), they can just decide to award the bonus anyway.

Impossible

I guess it depends on what they call a “robotaxi”? Like if they do an FSD update at some point and then say that any Tesla vehicle with that version of FSD is now a “robotaxi”, that makes it a lot easier

They have only sold 7.2M cars since inception over 20 years ago. Now will sales drying up because of competition and hatred of Musk there is no way to make 20M in 10 years, at least not without some "creative" bookkeeping. These goals are not intended to be achieved. They exist as part of the charade to make investors believe the numbers. Everything with TSLA comes down to pumping up the share prices, not creating any tangible value. Even with all those bogus targets met, the revenue would not justify such a payout.

20% of those Robotaxis have already crashed, with supervision!

True. And that’s just the sort of weaseling the Musk would do, and the board would not question him.

10 years to meet 2trn basically just requires inflation to do its thing. 2 tranches are basically in the bag without him really doing much.

This is not accurate. The milestone and market cap goals are independent, just with his previous pay package that was overturned.

Yah all the insiders can just have small "pre-arranged” sells without market raising eyebrows. As long as the share price stays high, another two years they will all be bagging tens if not hundreds of millions. Probably don't care their reputation is ruined eventually, they will retire into the sunshine anyways.

At the end of the day they still need consistent outside revenue, they can’t just cannibalize the company using stock

Enron's market cap was $70 billion just before its collapse. Its P/E ratio was around 70:1, but that's not a reliable number due to the inflated financials. A good guess I saw was around 100:1. Tesla's P/E is currently *236:1* with a current market cap of $1.35 *TRILLION*. Tesla is valued at 20 times Enron's value, and leveraged(correct term?) at triple Enron's rate. The upcoming crash will be absolutely unprecedented and is beyond fathomable to me. $1.35 trillion is almost equal to Mexico's entire GDP. Musk, Trump, bank presidents, fund managers, their families, and other related people will never walk the streets against for fear of their lives. Maybe that's why Musk is so keen on getting to Mars. He *might* be safe there.

>Elon turned up late in a courtage of blacked out Mercedes while the place was full of private security dudes with headsets on. What an utter douche.

One could say... His package was horribly mangled in a failed package surgery.

If he keeps the juggling of delays and false promises to shareholders and promises of products being “the next big thing” for another 10 years to maintain market cap at its current level I would be surprised.

It's worked for the last 10!

So accounting fraud only start at $4 trillion milestone?

Er what ? Starlink is bringing in 8 billion a year alone now ,

If you can hold your breath for 5 minutes, it means you can hold your breath for another 5 minutes because it worked the previous 5 minutes.

Great point I hadn't considered that tactic.

No human being needs that much money & it's bad for society. Running a successful company shouldn't make you that much wealthier than the average teacher. Society is messed up.

Exactly. We have proverb that says, if the guy, who is serving dinner is your man, you can eat all you want

starts at 2.5 T Mil but will be obvious at 3 T mil when robots keep falling down

This is being normalised like every thing in our society. This virus is going to spread across all companies since it is going to be normal asking Trillons even if company is doing bad (EX: Rivian recently)

Theranos lost rich people money though. Tesla hasn't done that **yet**.

Not a bad analogy but these things aren't close enough for that to be instructive. There's no reason to think it will change with Tesla, obviously there is a clear limit to holding your breath.

I was thinking the market cap goals would be the hardest to fudge.  8.5 trillion is crazy, but maybe they do some stock splits to make the stock cheaper so tesla fans can buy the "dip", I don't think Musk's b.s. is enough to get there by itself

Define "FSD" subscriptions... Does this mean actual FSD? Or the FSD that is really just normal level 2 stuff that Tesla mislabels?

\> There's no reason to think it will change with Tesla Yes there is. Sales are going down.

They've been going down for 12 months

The first ones are doable. 20 million delivered is just a matter of time (to think that the plan used to be 20 million cars sold annualy by 2028, LOL), the FSD target is easily gotten by making FSD a $10 a month sub for some weeks. 1 million robots - note that it doesn't name them. The shareholders are expecting Optimus robots of course, but that ain't happening. An AI robot is just marketing. The real targets are the profit based ones. Those are basically impossible. Well, technically possible via inflation.

He made it into the last compensation package, even earlier. He’ll do the same this time too.

Ok. Do I need to repost the thing again and then you incorrectly say the same thing? No. In fact, I'll just ignore you because I'm obviously not talking to a real person.

It means smoke and mirrors as usual.

And the first two are basically just inflation/index-average growth, respectively, and those tranches alone would exceed any other CEO’s lifetime pay. And that’s before playing games—a merger with another big company could had hundreds of billions to the market value without giving any benefit to the existing shareholders because the value would all go toward dilution. Even if he couldn’t find a suitable acquisition target I expect they could get a similar result by selling stock to increase their crypto investments. I’d be much more impressed if they used share price targets; at least if they play games there the existing shareholders could benefit.