Famed roboticist says humanoid robot bubble is doomed to burst

Once the masses find out, Tesla shares will go up

you don’t need roboticist to know that. never seen one real world demo in the wild

They are already selling the next big thing, Elon Farts

We must become crab before we make imitations.

Reminds me of AV market in 2019. It will eventually be a good market, but valuations are insane right now. Figure AI just raised at a 40B valuation for only 1B in funding, which is insane considering they probably burn 500M/year and are a decade out from notable revenue.

[removed]

I feel like there isn't really any humanoid robot bubble, there's just a Tesla bubble, based in part on their humanoid robot, which can fill popcorn containers at 3% of human speed, when there's a remote human operator controlling it and an on-site human safety supervisor watching it. The robotics companies that are kicking ass are selling purpose-built robots rather than humanoid robots, and the small companies selling a small number of humanoid robots seem to be making them for purposes where it's appropriate, like for hobbyists, entertainment, or "novelty" tasks like as a front desk greeter. AgiBot did sign a deal to sell a hundred robots to a customer for varied industrial tasks, but I'd wait and see how that pans out before calling it an example of a successful industrial deployment.

Petrified Poo Slices - guaranteed to have all live germs removed and encased in plastic with a certified hologram and dated.

If anyone could seel something like that to a delusional fanbase, it would be Elon

This is a funny bubble because it hasn’t produced anything yet. Dot com bubble, AI bubble, and others at least produced a lot of stuff first. It would be really funny if this one burst before it produced anything other than a few TikTok videos of robots poorly folding laundry.

Figure had some working in a BMW factory. Very controlled environment and limited tasks. Still, it was in the “real world”. Nothing they were doing required human style legs or human level manual dexterity.

# 🦀

A double whammy comment. Nice work.

I feel like the earliest market would be people who need an assistant to help with life things - dressing, toilet, cleaning, getting in and out of bed, things like that. I imagine that the robot might work perfectly 99% of the time (okay, I struggle to imagine but let's suppose), but what about when it doesn't? What happens when a humanoid robot fails? What if it falls and traps the person it is meant to help? It could easily kill a frail old person. Will there be cameras recording every interaction and sending it to HQ even when it is helping to toilet or dress the person? Without the recordings, will they be able to fix issues or train it in the first place, and with recordings what happens when they are inevitably leaked or abused? I struggle to envision a future where these issues have been resolved.

Even those stink.

Why constrain robots by limiting them to human form?

That’s the beauty of it, doesn’t matter if it stinks… Elon says it doesn’t so the fanboys won’t smell the shit

Why make it humanoid though? Make it more stable with specialized appendages.

It's marketing and a lack of actual technical knowledge to be able to compare different approaches to actually fundamentally solve problems or create a flexible platform. It's easy to sell the idea that they'll be a direct drop in replacement for workers or bothersome household tasks and that makes it easy to get funding. Nobody approaching it from an engineering perspective is going to look at a humanoid robot and think that's the best approach but no one is listening to them anyways. It's the same crap with Musk badmouthing LIDAR. Oh well humans use their eyes to drive! Yeah because we can't plug a LIDAR sensor into our head, it isn't an option. We still use GPS for navigation, RADAR for TACC, ultrasonic sensors for parking and blind spot detection, etc. It's funny because it ultimately demonstrates an actual lack of vision and creativity on the parts of the people advocating it. It's like insisting that an airplane would need to fly by flapping its wings and using the pilot's vision to navigate. It would be ridiculous and inefficient to do so and everyone is far better served by letting a machine be a machine, even if it requires building massive airport infrastructure and designating flight paths due to noise pollution. At a certain point it's better to just let a machine be a machine.

I keep waiting for the clothes folding robot. Man I hate that chore…

figure is nothing different from Optimus. every demo they had shown or any robotics company for that matter are carefully crafted to fool us. I doubt the one in BMW factory can do more than 1 task which is nothing different to machines that you see in manufacturing line.

I think that humanoid robots will become a thing, but not now. There's still too many basic issues to sort out and people just aren't ready for them. Musk insisting on building millions of robots is just him trying to create value to pump the stock where no value exists.

Show some respect, rizzbot out there carrying the industry

And water is wet

I'm waiting for an exo that will support my knees and ankles in addition to my hips. Would really help with my arthritis.

He is absolutely right. Spending huge energy to use legs to stay up, is daft. Expecting a hand with soft and hard touch, grip, and appropriate sensitive feedback, that actually lasts, is for the foreseeable future technically impossible. Imagine how many tiny motors and cables you'd need to even half replicate a hand and wrist. It would fail very often. Consider then that that is the easier part to solve. How are you going to fit 17,000 pressure sensors into a skin, and have the skin never wear out? It doesnt re-grow like humans.

I don’t agree at all. The world is built around the human shape and mobility. A high-quality easy to maintain , versatile bipedal human sized robot that can drive a car, carry groceries , help elderly person , clean the house , go through a doorway is going to bear overall much better than having a dozen purpose built robots.

I know a lot of people really dislike the idea of humanoid robots but I think we need to wait and see. It all hinges on AI. If we can make an AI that is about as smart as a human with respect to task accomplishment then having a human shaped robot to slot into jobs where it makes sense to have a human is going to make sense. We have specialized robots right now but still have a ton of humans in jobs doing repetitive work. There are dextrous tasks that don't require a lot of introspection or an inner life, but just need some kind of hand to manipulate some part. I think a lot of this is down to the robotics experts not really understanding business. I remember back when I co-owned a company in the trades we did a job commissioning an exhaust system for a light industrial firm that did die sublimation printing on mugs and t shirts and flags and doormats. They had big plotters that would plot out the pictures they wanted to transfer, then those would get cut up, paired up with the substrate, and loaded into a transfer press. I'm sure there are machines that do all those steps, but I'm also sure those machines are as big as a van and probably only do one thing. So you can have a multimillion dollar production line for rugs and another for tshirts and another for flags or you can pay a person who can adapt to do all three and mugs and whatever, andthen packs them to ship. The big production assembly line doubtlessly cranks out more products for less money per unit than the people. In my relatively rural area the shop kept a couple dozen full time employees. Their production couldn't possibly match a single big fully mechanized production line. But what they were doing could never need that much production either. They aren't the cheapest or the nicest producer of the kinds of products they produce, they keep in business because they are local. When someone has a tour bus swing by and empty out their shop or when there is a work picnic and they want matching shirts there is a local place to get a small batch made quickly. There will never be the huge batches to fulfil amazon's thirst coming from this little shop. For them the less efficient path is the best path because it's the only path where there is a business case for them. If a robot that was very human like were about as capable as a human and cost less per labor hour than a human some of the human jobs would probably be handed over to the human like robots. Yes, legs do complicate things, but they are also mostly a solved problem. Optimus sucks at walking because Tesla sucks, but other companies make robots that can walk just fine. The specific place I'm thinking of had tall shelving units they accessed with ladders and a mezzanine level in the shop that was accessed with a ladder to, but something rolling around like Wall-E would be able to do some of the jobs too. If you've ever stocked shelves it's really hard to imagine a non human shaped robot that could do that as well as a human shaped human, and a robot wouldn't have to worry about their knees hurting form being down on the floor or breathing in dust from reaching back into the lowest shelf. Or assembling burgers at a fast food joint. There are machine assembly lines that do all the steps for frozen sandwiches but those are massive, no way to shrink it all down and handle the variety of products at a Mcdonalds or Chic-fil-a, but a robot that's got a couple of very human like arms with very human like hands and can move those from one work station to another carrying light loads? That could work.

Adding a "kangaroo" tail for tripoding and putting lockable wheels on both feet and the tail would help, but that would also get in the way. When you care for a disabled person there is a lot of squeezing in behind someplace tight to get in position to help. Having a hand that locks on or comes off to make room for a powered scrub brush or other such attachment maybe makes sense, but it adds a lot of complication to an already complicated structure and if the robot is lifting heavy loads that means that relatively small locking surfaces are being taxed heavily. With a lot of work flows being able to make do with a less efficient approach makes sense, even if we can make a unitasker that is way better at what it does.

<< A high-quality easy to maintain , versatile bipedal human sized robot that can >> Very logical. But that is the question.  Can it? So far, the answer is "no." The article speculates the answer may change in 10 or 15 years, but that is a very long time -- too long perhaps for those hopefuls spend billions now.

<< it all hinges on AI >> That does appear to be the Musk view. But doesn't it equally depend on finger dexterity, battery life, and a robot that reliably won't fall down?

Is there anyone selling humanoid robots right now? I really kinda think a product has to exist before we can make predictions about whether they'll form a bubble.

An autonomous car is "orders of magnitude" simpler than an autonomous human robot and Tesla is still nowhere close to that.

>finger dexterity Solved problem five decades ago >battery life Atlas from Boston Dynamics is projected to go for four hours, and be able to swap batteries. Also, easy enough to have a plug at every workstation for the kind of jobs I'm talking about. >a robot that reliably won't fall down? Solved problem two decades ago

< Imagine how many tiny motors and cables you'd need to even half replicate a hand > Makes sense to me! Is it safe to assume Musk and engineers of robotics know that too?

> I know a lot of people really dislike the idea of humanoid robots but I think we need to wait and see. It all hinges on AI. If we can make an AI that is about as smart as a human with respect to task accomplishment then having a human shaped robot to slot into jobs where it makes sense to have a human is going to make sense. People dislike it because we're nowhere near the same ballpark, even the same sport, to building AI or robotics that are nearly that capable. But pump artists like Musk act sell the idea that it's just around the corner any day now.

Another Tesla first.... :)

It's for sure not around the corner, but very realistic on a decades scale.

> I feel like the earliest market would be people who need an assistant to help with life things The problem ends up being that those are generally the types of people that can afford it least.

Humanoid robots are stupid. Why the fuck would you limit your design to having to imitate human movements? A robot should just do things as efficiently as possible. It doesn't need to walk or move like a human.

You don’t need to put it in quotes.

More conspiracy bullshit and you get banned.

Yes, but see… you’re a jackass, so your ideas are invalid.

Or - hear me out - JUST PUT THE FUCKING THING ON WHEELS. THEY EVEN MAKE THEM THAT CAN TRAVERSE STAIRS.

so this sub is just doom posting about TSLA while the stock goes up? Absolute comedy 😂

"It's going to be Rodney Brooks" opens article "Yup, Rodney Brooks indeed" This guy was playing with robots in the late 1970s, subsumption architecture, then went to make millions with Roomba, NASA, etc. When he talks, you better listen. And yes Rod, we haven't even reached the intelligence level of a cockroach lol

I know that this is a whacky idea, but have you considered what a society would look like if it could get its capable but under-utilized people to look after its invalids?  Pretty wild, I know…

Meanwhile: 1. Milan Kovac, the Vice President who oversaw Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot program, resigned in June 2025. 2. Production of robots stopped because of problems with hand dexterity and overheating. 3. Tesla recently released a video of a robot being requested to fetch a Coca-Cola which made the robot look pathetic. 4. No sales, no paid orders, despite a product supposedly nearly ready for sale. And you're confident... why, exactly? To me, the article I quoted is the starting place -- humanoid robots until now have not been practical. One day, some company (and maybe Tesla) will change that. Until then, blow-up rubber sex dolls in a wig will have bigger sales.

> It all hinges on AI.  Not going to sugar-coat it - I stopped reading right there and scrolled down to find the downvote button.

They are. They do. And they’ve already formed a bubble.

\> in the late 1970 Old guy! What does he know? He probably doesn't have faith in crypto either!

Did you misplace this reply?

\> while the stock goes up? Absolute comedy Correct! But the joke is... on who?

You mean actual products with specific useful purposes? Japan is probably the leader. [https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/01/09/1065135/japan-automating-eldercare-robots/](https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/01/09/1065135/japan-automating-eldercare-robots/) But they do not justify faith in Optimus.

Yes -- like the poster who proposed putting them on rollerskates. Retractable ones, perhaps. What this illustrates is the way a human robot friend is an ancient idea -- it ABOUT it seeming like a human. Good poetry. Bad business.

>But the joke is… on who? At this moment in time (and many before) that is obvious, short sellers

\>  short sellers Fair enough. I'm also the kind of idiot who expects Bitcoin will go to zero. But I would not short that either.

I feel like the world has been in a mass hallucination lately for some reason.

This is a very challenging aspect of trading. I personally do not think TSLA should trade at such a multiple. However, the market via the chart and price action were telling a different story a few weeks ago before Tesla exploded higher. It is almost entirely irrelevant what one *thinks* should be happening, and what is actually *happening*. If I’m going to act in reality and take a trade, it should be based on what is happening in reality, not what I think should happening. You are clearly *not* an idiot. The reason is simple, you are not an idiot is because you called yourself an idiot. A true idiot could never bring themselves to say such a thing. And bitcoin? I have no idea what is going on with that thing either 😂

Did you see the second link in the original post OP shared?

Because the world is designed around humans. They need to be able to climb stairs like humans to be useful and so on with other activities that humans do

A robot can climb stairs without the engineering needed to balance on two legs. It's actually the hardest way to have a robot climb stairs. Name one task that is worth the engineering effort to have a robot imitate humans.

This is getting into philosophical territory. Arguably all civilizations are always in a state of hallucination. I think this guy has it right: <<Many people nowadays think only primitive people believe in myths, but myths dominate the thinking of every society, including our own. A myth is a story that makes sense of the world. Most ancient cultures took their myths from religion; most modern societies take theirs from science or political ideology...>> [https://www.resilience.org/stories/2005-03-04/long-road-down-decline-and-deindustrial-future](https://www.resilience.org/stories/2005-03-04/long-road-down-decline-and-deindustrial-future) The gist is we don't see our beliefs as "myth" (or hallucination), but once you accept humanity has always had them, you can accept it must have them now - only we don't perceive them as myths. They're just what we think defines how things work. But I agree with you something extreme appears to be going on now -- loss of faith in human leaders, perhaps, and that leading to fantasies about AI and crypto... and Tesla.

Thanks. One of my principles is seeing clearly begins in realizing accepting one is an idiot. We're all idiots. Einstein saw things most of us (including me) cannot comprehend -- a true genius. And an idiot.

Climbing stairs is just one component. They need to get into an elevator as well and they are designed for humans. If you need it to go 50 floors up it would be much faster and energy efficient to use an elevator. They need to be able to use everything that is designed for humans, therefore they resemble humans.

You know, I‘ll believe it once somebody independent owns something like Optimus and shows what it can and can’t do. These demos by Tesla are in no way verified to even be autonomous. I still think they’re 98% Tele-operated.

How would moving like a human help a robot use an elevator? Surely they could just roll in and have a wireless link with the elevator... Give me one task that is worth the engineering effort of making a robot humanoid. I genuinely cannot think of one.

I want them to put an autonomous humanoid robot at one end of a busy place - like a central station or something like Times Square where a crazy amount of people walk and run with different speeds in different directions for different purposes. You know, like having some people walk really slow, some run because they need to catch a train or get to a meeting, some change direction unpredictably and so on. Then put a bag of groceries and a cup of coffee in the hands of the robot and tell it to go to the other side of that place as quickly as possible without bumping into anyone. Once they are able to do that, they are ready for primetime - but I suspects is gonna be decades…

They need to use all elevators not just new ones. They need to fit inside. Its not about one task. Its about all the tasks combined. Dude just crack open a book. This is basic robotics 101 level stuff not that complicated to get.

Humanoid since the world we live in is built and shaped to accommodate human mobility and size.

My bar is so much lower, like make me a sandwich, do my laundry, scrub my toilet, and go recharge until I holler for ya. But that might be decades, too, but it's hard to say...tech can plod along slowly for years until there's a sudden unpredictable advance, like ChatGPT, and everything quickly changes.

“Why?” /s

Basic robotics 101 says that all robots need to be humanoid? You haven't a clue what you're talking about and you're doing a really bad job of pretending you do. I'd love to read that book. Robotics 101. No mention of things like SLAM or reverse kinematics. Straight into "if a robot needs to use an elevator it has to move and look like a dude".

Agreed. If there were developments happening we would hear about them. Tesla is behind in self driving. They are way behind in AI and hopelessly behind in robotics. I heard about Facebook giving crazy pay packages to build it's AI team. I hear about one executive after another leaving Tesla. Elon spending a billion to pump the stock is similar to a multimillionaire spending $10,000 to start a business. If he was serious it would be 100 billion. He is grifting. Anyways, I would be willing to bet the stock hits 500 before it falls to 400.

Humanoid robots need to be like humans. That’s what tesla is working on. Industrial robots welding at a factories don’t. Drones that deliver packages don’t and so on … really basic stuff I don’t understand how you are not getting it!

"Humanoid robots need to be like humans." No shit! Water is wet. You said welding robots don't need to move like humans. Why not? Humans were welding before the robots. Surely they would need to replicate humans? You are wrong. Robots do not need to mimic humans to be functional. Why limit a robot within the parameters of the human form and movement? It makes things way harder to engineer and isn't as efficient. When I'm folding clothes I have two arms. Why wouldn't you have a robot that had 4 arms and a storage box so it can fold and put dirty clothes away at the same time? You still haven't given me a single task that a robot needs to be humanoid for.

Honda's ASIMO is 25 years old.

Not saying he's wrong, but it seems he is personally in a company that makes purpose built robots? Again not saying he is wrong, just saying that a man who partly owns a company that makes purpose built robots, has a financial incentive to say only purpose built robots makes sense. Steve Balmer also laughed at the iPhone when it first came out. Also if anyone manages to create a human formed robot that is helpful, it will not be Tesla, they are so far behind so many of the other human robotics companies, and there are a lot of them.

Exactly. The only bubble here is in the Tesla share price and the minds of the most devoted. I notice that this week fanboy analyst Dan Ives upped his price target to 500 and one of his “justifications” was they would be selling these imaginary robots “at scale” next year!!!!

Because the main market for these robots is going to be as carer / companions of elderly people. China, Europe and now the US have demographic time bombs. Aging populations who are living longer but with a decreasing number of younger workers to support them via tax and literally via social care. People want something that (a) looks vaguely human and (b) can operate in a multi story normal home without any modifications.

This really gives an idea of how complex the problems that need solving are. I honestly don't think it is that much easier for cars once you get outside a city grid. Plus edge cases have far bigger consequences than spilling your coffee.

Yes, but the consequences are orders of magnitude greater too. So, similar size problem overall.

Yes. It only supports your hips.

How long must we suffer Dan Ives?

Right?! Crypto solves more problems than this guy knows exists!

> Because the main market for these robots is going to be as carer / companions of elderly people. Doubt. Old people, of any generation, are not well known for liking new things.

> They need to get into an elevator as well and they are designed for humans. A Roomba can get into a damn elevator. > They need to be able to use everything that is designed for humans, therefore they resemble humans. That's false logic.

> Humanoid robots need to be like humans. That's a tautological statement and has nothing to do with robotics. Robots in the home need to be able to use human equipment, not be humanoid. >really basic stuff I don’t understand how you are not getting it! If no one is getting it, then either you can't explain it, which means you don't understand what you're trying to push, or your argument is false. Pick one.

There’s another one coming out in October that supports hips and knees, mogo pants I think they’re called and Hypershell are said to be working on knee assist as well.

That's awesome. One of the things I miss the most having severe arthritis is being able to hike. Maybe with those and some tight high-top boots that support my ankles I might actually be able to go out again.

The knee assist ones are looking really interesting. I feel you, I love walking in nature and am really excited about this tech, singing about it from the Reddit rooftops, my main issue is quad and hip weakness so the Hypershell has got me back out walking but I can’t wait to see what they do with knee assist as Im getting mild osteoarthritis in one knee. I hope you can get back out there. 😊

Right now I get out in the woods in my 4wd pickup truck, but it's just not the same. And if I get stuck, getting out of the truck and navigating uneven surfaces to hook up recovery gear is really, really difficult. But being able to walk... that's a dream for me. I might even be able to do one of my bucket list hikes - the [Abandoned Pennsylvania Turnpike and Sidling Hill Tunnels.](https://uncoveringpa.com/abandoned-pa-turnpike)

100% They have the highest need, but the fewest resources and the least ability to respond to failures. Musk is so crap at following regulations and learning from others' experiences, so just imagine if these home care robots had to get certified as a medical device!

I only consume 100 Watts of power. Maybe 250 if riding my bike. Let’s see a robot do that.

98% is charitable. I'm not sure any of them are autonomous in any real sense.

And slowly wandering off to find a kitchen like it shit its pants.

I love that, I love walking old non functional railway lines where I live - although I haven’t done them in a while, this looks fascinating!

A robot that could do that doesn't need to look like a human though, and can be more stable, efficient and faster for those tasks with a different form. Probably cheaper to build, maintain as well. Maybe have different arms and hands for the sandwiches and toilet cleaning too.

They said the world was built for humans so many it humanoid so its able to do everything we can

Self-interest is a powerful motivator. It is humiliating to rely on another person to get to, use the toilet and clean up afterwards. I suspect most old people at that point would prefer the robot, which also is immediately available any time, doesn't get tired, have mood and interest changes, bad days, etc. And if the population doom sayers are right, human caretakers may not be available at all except for the very richest. If it is robot or nothing, they'll use them. Doesn't have to be a human-looking robot though. Possibly better when it isn't.

Yes, but Elon will be making millions of them per year, and he'll be a trillionaire by then, maybe multi-trillionaire. So he'll be all charitable and caring to the underclasses who didn't use their bootstraps well, and donate them to the needy. Also, pigs will fly. /S

I mean the issue is there are lots of human bodies out there and robots arent cost competitive

There are 6 billion poor people willing to do that work.

I think a robot that needs to navigate a human house would have an advantage if it were human shaped. The other example of crossing a crowded area could be achieved with wheels.

I think a robot that needs to navigate a human house would have an advantage if it were human shaped. The other example of crossing a crowded area could be achieved with wheels.

You might like the documentary *Hypernormalisation* by Adam Curtis.

Adam Curtis! In his early days he made conventional documentaries, then increasinglt more ambitious ones -- trying to define and find patterns of multiple things (that would not ordinary occur together). I can't always make sense of the later documentaries, but find them worth watching and even rewatching. So, thanks for the tip. I don't know that one.

I don't agree. A designer would start: \- what do we want this thing to do \- how best to achieve that Maybe the ideal robot would roll, transition to 3 legs when needed or hop around like a pogo stick. it would not be lumbering around on 2 legs, devoting a big chunk of processing effort just not to tip over.

I mean we are hearing about them to be fair, v14 drops this week

I'm talking about updates that justify the insane stock price. V14 "feels sentient" is not remotely close to V14 will allow Teslas to operate autonomously. If they were close to it we would know.

Dogs do fine in both situations. Bipedal motion is inherently more unstable and challenging. The boston dynamics dogs are terrifyingly capable.

Wow... from Henry Kissinger to Patti Smith to Hamas... meanwhile, in Russia... all with an ominous tone. Fascinating, but exhausted and probably over my head.

I agree with you it in no way justifies the stock price, but they might be closer to autonomous operation than the general public is giving them credit for, too.

Maybe. I doubt it but maybe.

In the immortal words of Confucius, human-shaped robots are fucking stupid.

And that guy Confucius knew a thing, or two. No wonder Socrates agreed with him. More seriously, I find it a little weird how Tesla bulls believe a human-type robot can do anything a human can do -- it's just common sense. That's the market proposition. Trying to explain the dexterity of the human hand and its 17,000 sensory receptors (and that might actually be the real number), and how inadequate machines are in comparison does nothing to dissuade them.

Have you seen the rare videos of those dogs in the wild? They're actually quite clumsy when not pre-programmed.

The includes the very staged videos from Boston Dynamics.

they dont have to be autonomous to be valuable, remote operated robots will be a massive growth industry

[removed]

That can definitely be. Quadrupeds aren't ready for general use now, and maybe never. Bipeds are even farther away from it.

And then it needs to be able to carry things, making it even harder. A robot care-giver for the elderly should probably be able to carry that person, for instance.

Yes. And carrying a person must be a big challenge -- an irregular shape with dangling moving appendages will greatly complicate the robot challenge to balance itself.

I think to an extent that's true, like it would be useful to be able to reach a high shelf an adult could reach, fit through narrow openings a person could squeeze through, and step over objects on the floor. On the other hand, that could all be met with a 5-legged, 5-armed robot with cameras and mics on each limb, and no real "head".

And I - with a PhD in one engineering area and another one in social science - anthropology - will disagree. It is overshot - he makes the point about the practicality-form relationship, about what market needs and what market will buy in the coming years - sure - he's right about that - but then - he slides on the slippery slope for no actual reason. It's a hardcore overinterpretation and a big jump to prove the actually correct a small point, which does not need such jumps and such big claims. It is a human fantasy - yes - and exactly because of that - it will become the reality one day. It's not about practicality. We do not paint for practical reasons. We do not build the buildings the way we do because of practicality - if we did, every single building would be a very simple, geometric structure serving its purpose. I do not think he lives in a grey concrete box with empty walls and just a bed and a desk, without any floor, paint etc. Humans will not give up on this. We want to create the artificial life, which is fully conscious and sapient, we want to create useful tools, which we need for particular reasons - but - we also want to create the artificial life that comes in the same physical form as ours. It is a fantasy. It is a psychological and societal need. It exists and appears regardless of culture, it comes in different variations but it's almost as common as other cultural universals - concepts such as some form of family, some form of art, ban on incest reproduction etc. A fantasy of creating a "golem" is older than robotics itself, it transforms through the years and it will become the reality - against practicality, against the form-function imperative - because humans are not machines, we have our desires, we have our needs and our irrational thoughts that we transform into reality and actions. On a side note, there're a practical reasons to make the humanoid robots too - and again - they are all human-centric reasons. First - humans want even 50% less efficient assistants but in our humanoid form. Humans will want the interaction with a humanoid robotic maid/butler. This is the first reason. Another one, which we cannot forget - is sex - one of those desires, which will inevitably push towards creating the humanoid robots with full functionality. We can deceive ourselves that it's not true but it does not change anything. It is an important, very practical factor. There's a problem with a lot of the AI engineers who have literally zero social understanding, they're super-focused engineers that underestimate anything outside of engineering. I was also like that so I am comfortable with calling it out - regardless if someone has a nobel prize or is a legend of any format. Legends are wrong, legends are biased, they're just legends aka popular people within the given field, it's nothing special, it says nothing about their actual work, many legends deserve it, many legends do not - so every single statement and claim must be verified, not believed on a basis of someone's esteem. Actually, he is a good researcher and he deserves his position, but he's a bad social philosopher - because of his entrepreneur agenda and his engineering, limited approach. There are socially-attuned engineers out there, sure, it's not that we need to be like that - and those socially-attuned also make money - because we do what people actually want and they pay for it. So - non-human, use-case based robotics - sure, it is needed, it will be very important and very successful. Humanoid body is not effective, obviously. It's true. At the same time - humanoid robotics will develop as well - separately, for other - both non-practical and practical reasons as well.

\> It is a human fantasy - yes - and exactly because of that - it will become the reality one day But "one day" could be a long time away. Does it make business sense to spend billions on it now?

That is a separate question. It may not make sense - sure. Here, I could agree - since such a claim would be much better than the one actually made. Those are two completely different claims. Yours makes sense, the original one - not much. Yours is not a slippery slope, the original one - is. On the other hand, there are counter-arguments. First - sex dolls business is very profitable and I see why they would spend money on it already. Second - in a more serious area - frontier research and engineering is generally non-profitable for years. It's like asking about the LLMs, about cars, about jets, batteries, solar panels. All of those technologies were not profitable at first, they ate up a lot of money and people had argued that it would have been possible far into the future but not at that time, no sense spending money on those back then, not profitable, better make a next horse cart, next steam engine, next rotor plane, next water power plant etc. So - personally, I could agree that we should concentrate on practical robotics for now, maybe develop the humanoid ones later - again - this is a more rational, more balanced claim, much better than one made by Brooks. Again - in contrary, there're a counterarguments - a fantasy is not always made to be profitable and there may be sense in spending money earnt elsewhere on realizing that fantasy. Not everything in the world is about making money. It does not make sense from entrepreneur point of view - sure - the same as spending money on painting art to hang on your walls makes no economic sense - you only spend money, you earn nothing on it, you do not sell those painting, you just decide to burn the money you made elsewhere to do something you want to do, something you like doing and to have your own paintings on your walls. Practical money drains such as LLMs are one thing, fantasy money drains such as art, gaming, collecting classic cars you drive once a month - are another thing, people do both - for different reasons and people will do both - because parts of the world are ruled by economic reasons, parts are not; and even where economics matter, development of those edge technologies is always costly, it always stands on deficit.

\> sex dolls business is very profitable and I see why they would spend money on it already Totally agree. Sex is often the secret engine behind tech adoption. Early sales of modems, external storage, faster online speeds, and better screen resolution were driven at least in part by the desire to download porn. Hard to imagine now, but for such things to be accessible online (or by any method) was remarkable. The only alternative was print, and that in not many places. \> fantasy money drains such as art, gaming, collecting classic cars you drive once a month The real utility of art is... money laundering. It's a way to make giant payments for something of no intrinsic value and provides a good cover story. \>  could agree that we should concentrate on practical robotics for now That's not my view really -- except that it is the logical extension of what I do believe, which is the near-term hopes for humanoid robots do not justify Tesla's current valuation. I find amusing when people say "of course" AI will get better. Of course it might. And there may be unseen revolutions near at hand (like photonic chip improvements ,maybe). The only sure thing about the future is -- it will surprise us.

Lets be honest, they want humanoid robots because they want animate sex dolls.

https://youtu.be/DRn3-MN92H4 The same points as in the article and more, covered there (2y ago to boot) in more detail, and just and interesting and fun video anyway, by the inimitable Dr Angela Collier

Perhaps way down the line. In a domestic setting though, I think a dog size/shape robot would be way more practical, safe, and cost effective. It’d probably cost about 1/4 of the equivalent humanoid one, all else being equal. You can just pick it up and move it, if it runs out of power or crashes half way up the stairs or whatever. A foldable manipulator arm (perhaps even two) and ability to rise up on its hind legs, would enable most or all domestic tasks I can think of that a humanoid robot could perform. Such as loading the dishwasher and washing machine, sanitising kitchen surfaces, picking up socks you left on the floor, popping out to collect the mail, putting things in the recycling, cleaning water marks off the shower screen, etc. For vacuuming, we already have Roombas. I really can’t think of any advantage to having the robot ~4x the size and weight of a dog sized one. Also dogs, be it robot ones, are I think a bit more.. sort of.. ‘acceptable’ to have in your house. I’m not explaining this point well, but sort the relative creepy factor of a cute, Sony-Aibo-like dog, vs a toned-down Terminator, Robocop, or Cylon, whirring, clicking, and clomping around the house. Startling people when it catches them unawares out of the shadows when they get up in the night, and so on.

I think though, there’s something to be said for valuations *eventually* having to catch up with the reality of the free cashflow generated by the stock. At the end of the day, shares are a part ownership of the company, and a share of the profits that it generates. If they fail to generate that hoped-for cash (turns out the much-hyped robots are crap, and nobody buys them, that kind of thing..), then there’s little point keeping that share of the company. Especially if you could sell it even at a loss, and instead own a share of a different company instead; one that *is* generating bucketloads of cash by doing some other thing, or indeed has a higher expectation of doing so in the future.

I donno... making a sandwich seems complicated. In an industrial setting the ingredients for the sandwich would be preplanned (once slice of cheese from the cheese shelf, bread from the bread shelf) but even then assembly would require dexterity. Could a robot pull one slice of cheese from a stack of cheese slices? I doubt it. And doing laundry seems even more difficult - getting irregular shapes into the wash, removing to drier, removing, folding... And a robot that does BOTH laundry and cheese sandwiches? Maybe not in my lifetime (well, I'm old). A true robot sandwich maker (not on an assembly line) alone would be very complex. "Hey, Robby, make me a sandwich" -- to open the fridge, choose among available ingredients, put back the relish jar with a closed top and not breaking it....

Yeah, I'm not suggesting it's easy. Separating a slice of cheese from a normal stack, or slicing a piece of cheese from a normal block, would be very complicated. Laundry seems like it could be pretty easy depending on your standards. Like if the command were "wait until this hamper is full, then wash it all on Normal, dry it, put it back in the hamper, and set the hamper in the hallway." If you want to sort by colors and washing instructions with different temps and all that, and match socks and fold everything, that gets quite complicated, too. I saw a demo of a humanoid robot sorting laundry, but I think that was one of Tesla's deceptive remote-control vids.

Just did a Google AI search. It reports: <<Yes, robots capable of folding clothes exist, with advancements shown by humanoid robots like [Figure's Helix](https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-learns-to-fold-laundry) and [Tesla's Optimus](https://www.google.com/search?num=10&newwindow=1&sca_esv=df6bb7b4e6fcd0a4&rlz=1C1RXQR_enUS1084US1084&sxsrf=AE3TifOOtaTqEK_AdggctBCMpvZ_fx5kog%3A1759431082879&q=Tesla%27s+Optimus&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjtrM7Fl4aQAxXFLFkFHSQpLRUQxccNegQIJRAD&mstk=AUtExfCvdj1rLF_jXUvkNngEZnCwKk0XQvZ-p8Ne5E85J3HAHXq93LxSEfME8N3nJYz8vG-PCFR6npYtFhoRWWvmZPFuq_CHxT6hay-8DLuzvFOt4hS2KLyC27ZZgn7Brd-LJxxKmSNgk-UeaYXJdx9cYAvC0jl1KdXykT4J2TqJFOJf5_nofczT7HbV6-N_GwrOWIoavRsEha4gU9oHrFSeR9ZmEUxKxTqVrkADV1xbM0vjMppmeaJgOKfx8MPA66K3OAYtmUDe3e5QMatU-uInWkNx&csui=3), and specialized laundry-folding machines such as the Foldimate, though fully autonomous, versatile, and widely available commercial versions are still a work in progress. Companies like Physical Intelligence are developing robots that can fold various garments from tangled piles using advanced AI models >> If I was the King I'd probably encourage resources to combat, I donno, Global Warming, rather than spend billions to automate clothing folding. I am surprised it's even feasible. Clothes are made of various material (with very different characteristics - stocking v. cotton sweater), complicated shapes... and they're kinda fragile, and come out of a drier tangled. Just dexterity and object recognition alone seem very complex.