Tesla a Zombie?

Fanboys heads are about to go boom.

Yup, dead brand walking. Or stumbling. Soon falling. I'll stand on the sidewalk cheering

A shrinking car company priced for heavy growth - yes, the stock is overvalued by a factor of 10.

It is a close race between Tesla, Carvana and Microstrategy of whom will become known as the new Lehman Brothers. I am thinking Tesla.

A lot of big players on the stock market are heavily invested in TSLA and their target is to keep the prices up, so this is also something to think about. If Tesla goes bust a lot of big investors will run into trouble.

Compared to peers it is 20x overvalued. Their PE is 170, Ford is 8.7 and GM is 6.9.

I give them some for the energy storage business and the fact that they can make EVs profitably.

nothing is rationale in current market. US fundamentals look horrible...yet S&P keeps rising. BTW - students will study how Elon f'ed up his business for generations.

That by the way is how zombies are killed in movies.

Which bodes poorly for Tesla, as those investors will presumably start looking for a way out of Tesla if things continue on this path. If large investors start divesting, it could start a stampede for the exits.

Yeah, this is a billion dollars game of chicken..

So the model s came out in 2012 and visually looks the same, inside and out, maybe the “everything computer” (I want my speedometer in front of me, nav up to the right, not the center for everything, I want buttons). The quality of a model y interior was a joke, the everything computer looked like a pre production release, it’s less capable than my mazda3 (LiDAR, 360 degree bliss sensors, not even level 2). So I can tell if a bike is next to me, moped, etc. I have LiDAR for adaptive braking, and bliss sensors, etc, tessler doesn’t. Robo taxi rollout has been a disaster, driving on wrong side of the road, letting passengers out in the middle of the road, like Waymo has 3 lidars, 360 degree bliss sensors, tons of cameras, dedicated nvidia deep learning system, actual pcie cards with a more powerful SOC/cpu sending data to those cars than the tessler whole computer. Competitors are much better, Korean, Chinese where you can get them. I mean my friend said Porsche offered him a taycan certified (5 year unlimited warranty mileage on ice, not sure on ev). So it’s like, he got a flat and they bring a taycan bc that’s included in the warranty, they bring out a loaner nicer than his car, then you can get the much newer dramatically nicer taycan, or any Japanese, Korean or other ev. Tons of competition and teslas cars are relics of the past. Oh negative image, terrible resale, I was shocked I saw a new disgustingly ugly y near my house, I’m getting my eyes checked! (scheduled already but the y got uglier, and I thought it was ugly when I first saw it). I don’t see any future in tessler.

It’s why the company is doomed because the only thing “justifying” that ratio is the vapourware promises from musk. Now that musk is toxic, do you want to lose value because of his personality or do you want to lose value because he’s no longer involved?

I mention the Mazda bc it was the least expensive most reliable best equipped sportiest car in the class, I was surprised it had all that bc I got it used. That was 15k used, 2020 car,  they were much cheaper than a Tesla. The taycan certified vs a “new” design from 2012? Pass on tessler.

I don’t think they can make EVs profitably though. If you take away Zev credits the company loses money.

Be careful! I think Felon47 and Musk have found a new scheme to make money by manipulating TSLA. I think their feud is completely fake.

This is kinda hard to read. You could go though the post and make your notation consistent, put dollar signs or leave them but don’t mix, use “.” as a decimal point and “,” for the thousands separator, not “.” for both or sometime one or the other. Sometimes billion is Billion, billion or B, maybe pick one. Don’t capitalise after commas. Like are you in a hurry?

5+ years ago Tesla had to decide whether to become a Real Car Company and do boring things like Manufacturing Excellence or stay whatever the fuck it is. They chose to stay whatever they are. I honestly dont thing Elon has the stomach for the hard boring important work of actually being good at making cars or any interest in it.

Car company brings in the cashflow… which is about to dry up. Future financing will need to be debt or stock raises. Both are bad for existing shareholders.

That is about 6% of revenue

Cars like the Nissan ariya put every Tesla to shame so yes Tesla is becoming a zombie company

>So the model s came out in 2012 and visually looks the same, inside and out Well, that's not quite true. To be fair, the 2012-2015 ones did look different, and they did a styling refresh in 2016. But it has looked basically the same since 2016. Any "normal" car company would have come out with a thoroughly restyled new generation (maybe even two) by now. I feel like regular styling refreshes is even more important with luxury cars than mainstream ones, since people who get them want to show off that they have the latest and greatest, so it's a problem if your new model is indistinguishable from one that's five years old.

They’re in the process of abandoning car sales for “robotaxis and Optimus”

Sure bruh - no one is buying a mazda3 over a model y

Sure bruh - they aren’t that smart

Compared to peers that have sane business and financials it is 20x overvalued. If you compare to a failing peer like Stellantis (STLA), funnily enough only one letter swap in the ticker, the PE is 4.

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If you remove the carbon credits, you have a 38% drop in net income.

Might be time to short. Large investors must realize Musk's political penchant is a liability, and also that true FSD is a few years out requiring additional sensors. In the next 6 to 12 months, I want to replace an ancient second car with a used EV. The plan is to short tsla and use profit towards a lightly used Model 3, or possibly ioniq 6.

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Yeah. I think there was also long period of nominally 0% interest made investment cash cheap. That had ended and a lot of Unicorns are having to learn to become workhorses

The other companies losing money on EVs aren't loading money on the incremental sale of each new EV.  If you know anything about accounting you'd realize there's no world in which that's appropriate.  The difference is that the other companies are investing heavily in both infrastructure and research for new models not yet released.  That doesn't mean that they don't want to sell more vehicles.  GM EV sales are skyrocketing, and they crossed into EV profitability on a per vehicle sale basis last year.  https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a63608612/gm-stops-losing-money-on-evs/ Overall they're still losing money, not only because they have a ton of new models in the pipeline and they're retooling plants to build ever more EVs.

Sure.  But not by choice.

Their EV business IS the business.  Nothing else even hits 10% revenue.

You don't want to own a vehicle with no parts support.

Net Income is really the most tragic figure. 2023 was strong. 2024 declined and 2025 almost gone: Net Income: Q1-2025 $0.4B; 2024: $7.13B; 2023: $15B;

Forgot the Net Income: Q1-2025 $0.4B; 2024: $7.13B; 2023: $15B; Has been strong 2023, deteriorated in 2024 and now is almost non existent.

Haha, no shit they have sense if they get a car from a decent manufacturer as opposed to tessler, where everything is a beta! Like maga and musk? Oh also I mention it’s an entry level car, like a used model 3.

What would you be telling them - assuming you are a consultant? What kind of strategy should they be choosing? A) Scrapping the non working models and all side projects and actually become a car company which sells good quality EVs. Update your working models with new tech and develop a third model line which actually sells. B) continue as before. I would guess their main bottleneck is engineering resources. They have enough cash but not enough qualified people to serve all their products and projects.

Musk made his fortune selling Teslas to liberal democrats in places like California, Oregon NY etc. If he had chosen to put his money behind Harris those same people would be happily buying Teslas to show their support for the environment and Musk. Instead he shit in his own bed.

The S and P is valued in USD. If you consider how much the USD has been falling with respect to other major currencies it might all make more sense to you.

Yea, I probably would have a bought a new Model 3 or S to replace my 2018 Model 3. Now I’m saving up for a Rivian RT1

Tesla’s carried across the globe, not just to “liberal democrats” in those states. I’m an Independent and sold both Teslas because Musk is a POS and a chronic liar. Service has gone to shit too. Otherwise, I’d likely be driving a new Tesla by now. Hopefully, company goes under and a new startup picks up their sw stack.

Can you say 2008?

Starting to think that even of it goes bust it might retain value because "it must". I have no idea how it still has any value

In the USA they are still by far the biggest EV maker despite Musk's brand damage and increasing competition from legacy auto. They are a company in decline, but they aren't close to bankruptcy and they are greatly overvalued

And their PE ratio is still insane...

Are those GAAP figures, and are there any financial shenanigans going on here?

You mean a trillion, right?

Yeah but their investment in Solar City is about to pay off big time 😉

Nah .. +6 points on the stock!

Keep making up new hyped up business lines to preserve the bag holders and slowly sell all your stock.

Nope. Stock +$20

yep, zombie is a great description; headed straight to death, they just don't know it yet. competition is heavy now from both asia and europe. plus, tesla owner votes Kamala... trump voter is a broke flatlander living at mom's basement. elon should have though about such an obvious reality: tesla buyer are the usual left wing retard. republicans buy fosil engine vahicles... such a "smart" person, right? oh well...