Does this mean CyberCab will be a subscription-only vehicle?

Tesla is going to go back on their word of letting people operate the taxis services. They are hurting for money. They are going to operate the fleet themselves.

FSD will never exist for a one-time payment. All of the support and insurance needed to make it happen at scale will cost money. Maybe it's $100 a month and maybe it's $1000 That's why I believe consumer unsupervised is not easy at scale as it costs billions of dollars a year and you need millions of cars. That's why I think not every car brand can have autonomy Tesla FSD was never sold as an unsupervised product (in the description of what you were buying) and it makes no sense to sell an $8000 package when $99 a month (especially if you take months off when you don't use it) is 7+ years Even if tesla is far from unsupervised now, they will have it in 7 years easily

Hurting for money would be the reason for outsourcing operation.  Selling whole cars vs monthly subscriptions would bring in much more cash immediately.  They want to own the whole operation because that has the highest returns in the long term if they can float the cash to build out a fleet.   Also it's pretty disingenuous to state Tesla is going back on their word when they haven't done that yet and it's just you expecting that to happen.

The money those cars are going to make is going to be insane. Just watch.

They know the first quarter of this year is going to be a disaster since the tax credit doesn't exist anymore.

It didn’t exist last quarter either. The US isn’t their only market.

Right. So why would they have ever sold the vehicles to allow others to operate a fleet?

It’s always been sold as eventually becoming unsupervised if you pay for it though. And presumably when unsupervised is a thing it will become more expensive

Have they sold any cybercabs yet? Have the sold Model Ys been allowed to operate as taxis yet? Neither of those things are going to happen. Tesla is going to operate like Waymo and be 100% internal. They will use the unsold Model Y's and the cybercabs for their own rideshare. Tesla owners are going to be completely cut out of the deal.

only in marketing. Not in the product you can buy. The car is sold as being unsupervised ready (in marketing) but in reality the car does not ever have to be unsupervised and definitely not with the product you have paid for

The promise of real FSD is not fulfilled until Tesla accepts liability for the cars while being used in FSD. Until then, it's all bullshit.

You act like Tesla plans anything ahead of time.

The had left over credits right?

Elon said you could buy a car with FSD and sign it up for the robotaxi fleet just like you sign up to drive for Uber.

My opinion cybercab will only belong to Tesla. Your regular model 3/Y will be your unsupervised cybercab .

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Yup. And that is not going to happen.

Elon says a lot of things, I like their stuff but you can’t trust anything he says until it actually ships.

Right, he said it… that’s how you know it’s false.

Commercial insurance in California was $2200 per month per car. I used to operate a commercial personal transportation company. Think Uber Black. I even used Teslas because I thought we would be getting robotaxis within a couple of years. Now I don't think we will be getting robotaxis at all. Tesla is going to realize it is VERY expensive and Tesla won't be able to make a profit unless they run it 100% themselves.

He is usually right about stuff, but his timelines are way off. But this one is not based in reality. There is no way they split 70-30 with the car owners taking 70%. There is no way they even do 30-70 with Tesla taking 70%.

No

CyberCab will be a taxi service owned by Tesla. Cars with permanent FSD will be privately owned. Privately owned Teslas can also subscribe to FSD.

I don’t think they will ever sell the cybercab to consumers. In fact I don’t think the cybercab will ever see widespread use. There’s too many regulatory hurdles to overcome to allow it to drive on public roads without a steering wheel. But at the same time if they end up giving it a steering wheel that means passengers are going to have direct access to it since it’s a 2 seater which can be dangerous especially if the passenger is a kid or someone without a license. I predict they will simply go all in with model Y robotaxis that way passengers sit in the back like in a Waymo.

I wouldn't be shocked if they leased cybercabs.

Exactly, but that is “going back on your word.”

To whom and for what? Two seat vehicles do no sell in North America outside of a few niche cars.

Agreed, this is going to be another flop just like the Cybertruck. Why not just use the existing Model 3 SR and modify it slightly for taxi use (rubber floor mats, vinyl seats, cheaper interior).

IF they do ever open up a FSD ride hailing service for the consumer, I would expect that would include some other specific licensing or subscription service. That may, or may not, include FSD. If not, then you would likely have to subscribe to FSD, and the "cab" service subscription. That's my guess any way.

The last quarter of last year already didn't have the tax credit and they were fine.

If they use steer-by-wire they could disable the steering wheel when needed

In what market outside of the U.S. do you think they are doing well?

And that hasn't changed.

100

No, people on here will forgive almost anything he does.

Was it ever implied that the cybercab would be sold to private customers? In my mind it was pretty obvious that they would be owned and operated by Tesla similar to Waymo. The cybercab is specifically designed to be used as a taxi, not as a personal car.

Not so sure about that. We will see though. Where Waymo works they haven’t killed Uber or the use of regular cars. And Waymo basically is bulletproof, or at least thought of that way, in the places it works

They will have a screen that runs commercials the whole time. There will be a commercial free subscription you can opt into.

I wouldnt be shocked if cybercab never came out lol

True but then that goes back to are regulations going to allow for such a setup. If they can disable the steering remotely and there’s no way to enable it in the car I feel like that’s the same as just removing the steering wheel.

Miata is always the answer

Waymo is working very well. It has absolutely killed Uber in Los Angeles.

Eh, they're clearly building prototypes so it would be surprising if they didn't come out in some form. It's not like the roadster which afaik only existed as a concept.

That’s BS. I have been to LA numerous times. There are way more Ubers available than Waymo. Waymo sometimes is cheaper and people don’t have to tip, so that does play into it.

Purchasing a Cybercab? That’s never even been in talks to be an option, Cybercab will only be for Tesla to make money

Guess I’m hanging on to my HW3 Model 3 until they give me that upgrade they committed to

Yes, they had a significant backlog of orders placed before 10/1 that were delivered in Q4

Your average driver or even Tesla owner is not going to subscribe to FSD in any significant numbers. There would already be that demand present. Why would I pay for my car to drive me around AND SUPERVISE and take any liability for mistakes when I can call your robo taxi and have zero concerns of mistakes on my dime? If FSD was level 5 and I could close my eyes and wake up at my destination a few hours away, I will argue the benefits. But if FSD won't allow me to take a nap, look at my phone or just at the screen, what are we doing?

Yeah, they're driving the cabs around for testing in a very open way. It's going to be produced, the real question is will it be sold to the public, or leased, or will they back off on the steering wheel thing or what.

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Which would then serve dual-purpose because a stripped down Model 3 with cheaper interior could also be sold as a cheaper car to people outside the US where FSD isn’t a thing.

A model 3?

I am an Uber driver. I went from making $40/hr in 2021-2023 to making $15/hr now.

He is going to say it's not possible because of insurance. Which might be true, but still his fault.

Implied? Elon outright stated we could buy one.

I don’t doubt for.a second that Uber lost some business. Uber didn’t really have competition before. I just don’t know that people will abandon Uber. I do think there will be price pressure for sure and could see them artificially lowering the rate to effectively drive Uber drivers away.

Uber had Lyft as competition.

Try Johnny Cab

Too expensive.

Lots of people just drove for both. You can’t drive for Waymo.

Ha ha ha. Publicly it hasn’t

this is like saying "I wouldn't be shocked if the sun didn't rise tomorrow"

its cheaper as subscription anyways. at least for me

No.

The cybercabs being produced have steering wheels

You don't remember the ordering backlog? They cant lean on that anymore.

As a passenger i would enjoy the space and entertainment of a cybercab over a robotaxi... I think tesla has an opportunity to make a very compelling user experience that traditional cars can't replicate.

Tesla can make a lot of profit and avoid certain costs by selling them... for example cleaning/maintenance until automated cleaning is ubiquitous... let the owner handle it. Long term they would gain a lot by owning the whole fleet, but short term they can cut capex by leveraging owners buying the cybercab, allowing them to scale faster.

To offset costs in production and maintenance of the fleet. Faster scaling by leveraging the public owners pocket books and elbow grease.

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Cleaning is the cheapest part of maintaining the cars. Waymo has a depot and 1 dude cleans 100 cars. Tesla's robot cleaner is meh.

For testing, yes, but they keep insisting they're not going to sell them that way.

Personally if I had to bet money, I think it's going to be sold as the model 2 (or something like that)

There was no backlog. The credit expired at the end of Q3 and deliveries were nearly instantaneous going into Q4. And yet, sales turned out just fine.

So you're just guessing that privately it has? That's your whole "going back on your word"? A hypothetical that hasn't actually happened?

That’s actually a great question. (I might be interested in buying one)

They’ve stated multiple times that private individuals will be able to purchase the Cybercab, and right now I have no reason to believe otherwise 🤷

People love to repeat this constantly, but the only real issue I’ve seen is delayed deadlines. (Which is understandable, especially when brand-new technology is involved…) I’d much rather get an amazing vehicle “eventually” than keep buying the same-old tired “nothing burgers” that legacy OEMs seem to crank out year after year. (Only thing I can think of that hasn’t actually happened is the 2nd gen Roadster? But first, it’s so expensive… How many people are actually waiting for that anyway? They probably already bought themselves an MS Plaid to tide themselves over lol Second, I would argue that it’s still on the way. It just hasn’t been a priority for Tesla, considering how well the Model 3/Y sell)

You realize that Waymo already does basically all of this, right? (Except removing the controls) Yes, Waymo still has a steering wheel/pedals in their “safety driver”-less vehicles. And guess what? They are simply disabled during normal rides, and therefore not usable by the customer (even if they managed to climb into the driver seat from the back). So yeah… Tesla can easily do the same thing, even if they were forced to keep the controls. That won’t do anything to halt the 2-seater Cybercab from coming out in the slightest 🤷

Yes, actually. They have stated on multiple occasions that private individuals will be able to purchase the Cybercab. At this juncture, I have no particular reason to believe otherwise… But I guess we’ll see 🤷

Yes it has… They literally said this when the Cybercab was announced in October 2024 (that private individuals would be able to purchase it). Not to mention the fact that even if you don’t specifically own a Cybercab, you can still put your personal Tesla (of any model) on the Robotaxi network in order to make money while you’re not using it. (Which for most people is going to be something like 80+% of the time, where your car is just sitting there parked, not doing anything)

Waymo is not drive by wire the steering is mechanically linked if you pull hard enough it will override the autonomous controls similar to overriding FSD. The difference being they encourage passengers to sit in the rear and are constantly monitoring in case the passenger touches the steering wheel or unbuckles their seatbelt to move to the driver’s seat.

Hence why I said widespread.

Well that’s the thing… If they’re making this move, then Unsupervised must be very close. Because, well, even after Unsupervised is “solved”, they’re still going to make constant improvements to the software for years to come. (What if it could drive like a professional stunt driver? Take evasive action to avoid an accident that’s about to be caused by someone else? Drive in weather conditions where a human would literally have to pull over due to an inability to see? Etc.) Out of all the things that could be a “subscription” in a car, this is the one that makes the most sense (if not the only thing that makes sense). You’re not just buying a “heated seat” that never changes (lmao, nice try BMW)… You’re paying for a software system that is constantly being updated. We’re used to getting most of these updates for free (such as for the main Tesla OS), which is nice… But I would argue that FSD development is way more expensive than Tesla OS development (not to mention way more important, and safety critical), so I can see why they want to charge a subscription for it. Hell, you’re not even paying for the FSD hardware per se (which automatically comes with the car)… So yeah, they want to get continuous revenue in exchange for their continuous software development efforts. Makes a lot more sense than most subscriptions I currently pay for, tbh. 🤷 That said, I’m glad the FSD purchase model did exist up until now. I already own FSD outright on my current vehicle, and I won’t be trading it in any time soon. The purchase model allowed them to acquire “funding” for their initial development efforts, before anything was really “working” yet (where paying a monthly subscription would not make much sense for the average consumer), but soon we’ll be on the tail end… Where the initial automated driving system is finally complete, yet there will always be an even smarter version of FSD just around the corner

Its not cheap to have to staff cleaning and charging stations all over. Not at all.

Waymo hasn't had to scale yet either.

Yeah, they have had scaling issues. They have to modify the Jaguar Ipace by hand after they get it delivered. I think that holds them up. Tesla won't have that problem, the AV is built into the car in the factory.

It is. They are minimum wage workers. a couple of workers can service a 100+ car fleet.

Bro. Activate FSD then run your windshield wipers... "Take over immediately" I do not trust FSD in a rain storm and you're smoking crack if you argue otherwise

Okay rewatching the We, Robot event, yes he did mention it at the beginning and that they expect pricing to be sub $30k, my mistake on that. I’m still not sold on the idea of the Cybercab reaching market anytime soon, I believe it’ll be private only thru Tesla Robotaxi while model y and model 3 will be the main “fleet” vehicles for consumers

The sub’s point is the allegation that Elon is “going back on his word” is about as incriminating as “Elon said something”

As someone living in an Arctic region, this is a pretty common thing.

Most people have never set foot in those places.

They also stated multiple times that individuals would be able to buy the new roadster a few years ago.

Doubt they will allow personal cars to be cabs anymore. That will eat into their cybercab revenue.

I'd buy it if they made a performance version with a nice interior/seats.

I bet my life on it they'd sell way more than Cybertruck.

Something something coast to coast in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020....

Not just prototypes. Production candidates off the actual assembly line.

Thats a low bar.

At a million cars that's 10k additional workers using your numbers... hundreds of millions of dollars per year, not including the costs to build/lease the facilities... It's something tesla can aspire to but it's a huge burden on top of all of their other expenses just to get the line of cars out. I dunno what they'll end up doing, but it makes a lot of sense to me to leverage people willing to do it for no cost to tesla.

The entire point of Miata is that it's a small, swift roadster that's fun to drive. Cybercab is just... small.

I think they’ve talked about it - personal cars will need to be inspected by service centers (maybe annually?) to be allowed onto the network. Demand for the network will exceed Tesla’s ability to produce new vehicles for it. It’s pure profit for Tesla to let consumer vehicles on the network - all expenses of maintaining the car are passed onto owners.

I make about $35/hr on Uber. Uber takes about half. 25% of their cut goes to insurance and fees. So lets say the cars make $60/hr and Tesla gets to keep 75% of. Lets say the cars can be out for 18 hours a day, the other 6 hours is for super charging and cleaning. That's $1080 a day x .75 = $810 a day per car. Times a million, That's $810m per day. 10k workers making $20/hr for 8 hours a day. That's $1.6 million a day for labor. Compared to $810m in revenue per day. You see how this becomes an easy problem.

I just got in a cybercab but I don't have FSD, so it just sat there and showed me Optimis advertisements and Boring Co propaganda. /s

This ignores the capex required though - They would have to build out support before they achieve mass adoption, unless they are willing to eat a lot of cost and ramp production/deployment without corresponding revenue. By leaning on local customers they can scale geographically much faster.

Waymo is owned by Google. Google has $100 Billion cash on hand.

Waymo is in a far worse position - all the money in the world and they can't scale. That's a problem.

There you go. That is a REALLY good question. OR does it mean the price will now be 100k? Difference in price if it's personal vs business? As it does require different insurance...

CyberCab is currently scheduled to start customer deliveries alongside the Roadster, and FSD hardware upgrades.

Could be fun. The first few gen miatas I wouldn't consider swift.

They felt peppier than their specs but mostly they were sold on looks and being fun to drive.

fast doesn't (always) equal fun A Miata is an absolute riot to drive, really need a Porsche to have more fun than in a Miata

LOL there will be no fleet to operate, in any meaningful way. Tesla are nowhere near autonomous driving and not on a technical path that will ever get them there. It was true a decade ago and it’s *still* true today.

They are literally operating in Austin right now.

Yes, though to be honest, I could see where they might go with this. You basically get x miles and y trips per month or week for a set price, with a guaranteed pickup time, and run it as a subscription model. Imagine also if you allow people to set their daily schedule so it guarantee's certain time and day's throughout the week, so you are never late for work. It would function like Uber/Lyft and a lease kind of, all at once.

I think you are right, but your supporting argument is nonsense. They are NOT hurting for money. If they stopped all profits, they could still run for a decade or better, they're fine.

“Operating” yes - with exactly zero unsupervised miles driven. Zero.

Fun *to drive*. Being driven around is not at all the same.

You couldn’t be more wrong.

“Your Tesla is an appreciating asset”

I’m not wrong. Self driving almost certainly cannot be accomplished with visible light cameras alone cameras - that are _worse_ than human vision. There are multiple examples of regular FSD users who have been killed because they placed their trust in this ridiculous technology. It might be forgivable if proven alternatives didn’t exist. Fog, hell heavy rain? Sucks to be you if all you’ve got is cameras. But let’s assume cameras did work. Tesla’s FSD still doesn’t work safely even in the most basic driving conditions. It fails to navigate basic four way stops for me on quiet suburban streets. Don’t take my word for it- just go look at the endless YouTube videos which show Teslas FSD doing the most incredibly fucked up shit. It’s why they need humans in the drivers seat in Austin.

I have a feeling this probably only applies to consumer vehicles for the non commercial customers. Cybercabs I think will be marketed towards commercial users and they will come standard with the FSD. I have a feeling they will lease fleets out to businesses like Penske/Enterprise/Ryder and other companies do with fleet vehicles. The reason I believe this is because I know companies like Genetech have company buses that are leased and they bus their employees around to work from cities closeby. I have a feeling it would be a similar situation where we will see large companies like Genetech that will transition to utilizing cybercabs to transport people rather than those large buses. My theory is they will actually start offering different sized models to seat more passengers eventually. The reason why they started with 2 seats is probably to satisfy some safety concerns by the NTSB. Tesla has been trying to pivot into the commercial space with their EV freightliners. The Cybertruck was designed to be for a mixture of commercial and consumer use. The next vehicles I foresee will be utility vans and eventually box trucks. The problem with box trucks I feel would be battery weight so until battery tech actually improves more we won't see those for awhile.

I won’t take your word for it.. I’m using the technology in Austin today. It is phenomenal Of the thousand miles that I have on my 26 model Y, the car has driven 995 of them This will be solved with cameras, and you will be wrong

F\*ck yes, that's what it means. And it's not a bad thing, either. You were going to HAVE to purchase FSD for the CyberCab anyway. Chances are, a less expensive car, like a CyberCab, isn't going to last long enough to make an $8000 'full price' investment in FSD smart, so this subscription model will be perfect. Plus, I expect that the CyberCab FSD model will be specially enhanced with additional features that make it possible to serve as a cab, as well as a personal vehicle. JMHO

And how many times did you have to perform human intervention on those 995 miles? We both know it’s not zero, or likely not close to it. There’s a massive - massive - gap between human assisted auto pilot and true autonomous driving. Tesla aren’t close - because they would literally need to break the laws of physics to do it. A visible light camera system is simply not capable of safe autonomous driving. This is why, after over a decade, Tesla have failed to move beyond Level 2. Meanwhile, Waymo have been at level 4 for several years. Tesla might get to true autonomy, but they won’t get there with cameras.

Probably about 20 interventions.. most of the time it’s because it’s taking a route that I wouldnt prefer.. The 5 miles of driving are because the car doesn’t yet know that I prefer to go to the back of my kids school versus the front Never is it because I’m about to hit something or the car is being unsafe. Navigation issues do not equal “ vision only is a failed approach” This is my fourth Tesla. FSD has been trash for years. Hardware 4 .. 14.2.2.2 on this new model Y is working splendidly They solved it. Maybe it’s because I’m in Austin. Maybe it’s because i’m in the Robotaxi service area. You can talk all day about what you believe and I will tell you what my experience is.

Who said you could ever buy a Cybercab? I mean currently it would not be legal in the US.

I'm gonna guess they're trying to find a good way to "double dip" in earnings. First, they'll sell us the car. So we have to pay them for the hardware and pay them to maintain it. And with the subscription, they're effectively charging us again and monthly, to even use it. And if I was to guess even more, they're going to attempt put liability on the car owner that it wasn't maintained when FSD fails.

Not the sharpest tool in the shed eh? Tesla has a Track Record of heavy delays. But the Products will come sooner than later.

This used to be true...not anymore. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpFKVm5UKXw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpFKVm5UKXw)

I thought it was legal, but only for 2,500 units. That’s nothing.

NA Miatas weighed like 2100 pounds and great handling. It's not that Miata's are quick in a straight line, it's that they don't have to slow down for corners nearly as much. So "quick" on a track.

Someone is taking a joke personally. I've been with TSLA since ipo.

You're mixing up the specific car model "cybercab" with any car taking part in the "robotaxi" service. Two different things. Other services have done the same in the past. For example, phone booths were operated by phone network providers, not sold to private individuals. But that didn't mean that people could not buy phones to connect to those phone networks.

Hope it's cheaper per month

Cybercab is pretty much explicitly not in the consumer vehicle market category. It’s a business/fleet vehicle. “Owning” one would be akin to owning an asset or share of an asset. Anything that this vehicle will do is completely separate from how the rest of the consumer vehicle’s will be managed.

The value of near all extant Teslas is are plunging to zero quite suddenly so too presumably all other vehicles upon in the USA and in fact the World actually. What's the point? Long $joby strong buy

if they’re going to make a lot of these,selling to the public is the easiest way to combat any potential inventory issues.

Yeah, but the cybertruck lines are operating at about 10% capacity, so there’s definitely precedent for Tesla being able to produce a car but not actually producing it

I had an NB Miata bone stock with a 6spd manual transmission. I used to frequent a nearby roundabout just to drive in circles at high speeds lol. I would loop around at least 3 times.

Easy to just ignore it by being on your phone

Could Tesla possibly develop a model to compete with Uber in the future? I'm just asking casually, and if it's inappropriate, please let me know. Thank you.

Confused, cybercab is not planned to sell to customers?

I appreciate my Tesla 😆

No one will personally own a cyber cab. Think of it as a Waymo