Master Plan Part IV

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This ain't happening. If I wanted science fiction, I'll go to the library. Wait...did it close?

‘Growth is infinite’ is an insane guiding principle lmao

hope the megapack business is expanding greatly powering entire cities hope autonomy can be made do every car can be made autonomous with Tesla fsd then i hope tesla ai data centers can be used to train even more and more ai purpose taskes such as flight control and other endavours the scale and purpose that tesla can fulfill is endless clean energy for all, Smart AI for all, Humanoid drones and more.  Thank you for clearing our cities from smog saving people from automobile accidents and powering the world through solar. Though Nuclear is also important ;)

Wow this is insanely vague

This is super lacking compared to Part 3. Is there something more to this?

Lmao

Are they recommitting to solar? Feels like they gave up completely on it the last 8ish years.

It doesn’t mention anything really…

In summary: AI will solve all our problems. Meanwhile they can't even get to self driving and when they do, they will have 9 Chinese competitors at their door, licensing the software/hardware to every manufacturer lowering the value of self driving to almost zero through massive competition as it's happening with LLMs and the token price.

This reads like a really vague tech-crypto-bro fever dream about how AI and robots and letting big companies do whatever they want without constraint is going to solve all the world's problems with scarcity. Raw materials? Oh those are free and infinite, of course! The thing standing in the way of "sustainable abundance for all" is the greed of a few, not magic technology that hasn't been invented yet.

If only Elon focused on the mission and stayed apolitical....

No substance

The mission is now transitioning the world to sustainable abundance, not transport. Eliminating scarcity certainly is a lofty goal too.

All to be released in 2026 by end of year

The master plan is like my old dissertation, it needs to be condensed and get to the point. At this point it's getting more and more deluded

Deluded and diluted. There's zero tangible goal here. Back in the day we had a list of steps the company was aiming to achieve.

"The elimination of scarcity" can't exist under current economic models, whether or not we replace all workers with robots of ambiguous capability and unknown cost. This was kind of an insane read.

The master plan to fit whatever comes, literally

“Clever got me this far…”

Can he finish part I first? Where is the affordable car already?

Infinite growth of anything would be detrimental in a lot of ways, the way the unchecked growth of cancerous cells eventually kills the body they're metastasizing in. We are moving further and further away from a solarpunk future, where we build technology that allows us to continue living alongside nature in innovative and responsible ways. Instead we're hurtling towards the future in Blade Runner, where companies tout the utopia their products are supposed to bring about while ignoring the suffering their arrogance causes. Tesla has lost the plot. EDIT: cancer phrasing

Are there major players trying to sell hardware other than Comma AI?

Infinite growth is a terrible way to describe cancer.

they bailed out Musks brother and forgot about it

TL;DR - Master Plan Part IV - Pump the stock

"Cancer is a disease in which some of the body’s cells grow uncontrollably and spread to other parts of the body." -Cancer.gov Might not be infinite, but if a body had infinite energy, cancer could grow infinitely.

I understand in depth how cancer works. Purely saying it is "infinite growth" is incredibly incorrect.

Management are working on closed ecosystem that can bring in huge value to investors. If really materialized Tesla will be biggest winner. pump up the stock to ATH

Google has stated that the end goal for Waymo is not being a ride share company. They haven't been clear on if they want to sell the package of sensors and software to car makers or not, but they also haven't ruled it out either. I find that to be a quite likely approach that fits Googles modus operandi well. There is also Magna which is very clear that they want to build and sell hardware+software for self driving vehicles. Though they aren't nearly as far along afaik (compared to Tesla and Waymo that is.)

You are correct. Cancer is not infinite growth.

Musk’s cousins

Last swan song of a word salad before the implosion.

The short answer is the cost of retrofitting roofs was too expensive and the investment groups behind all the new homes being built don't care about the people that will buy or inevitably rent them. So they pivoted that group to industrial batteries and power walls and have been extremely successful. Solar is still around and it seems from the pictures posted I'm guessing they are moving towards putting simpler easier to install tiles on commercial areas to power chargers like on the top of covered parking spaces. The tech is solid but cutting individual tiles one at a time and designing them into a giant puzzle to fit complicated angles on roofs is not.

But what about regular-ass panels? Not everyone lives in an HOA neighborhood that will freak out about what we do with our own houses. Affordable standard panels from Tesla are of most interest to me compared to those custom cut tiles, but I'm not buying something that doesn't have consistent long-term support either.

Concept of a plan IV.

They say that while they’ve already clearly hit market saturation at current prices lol

Isn’t utopia defined as building technology that allows us to continue living alongside nature in innovative and responsible ways? How do you think Tesla veered from this?

Latest

Have parts 1-3 been mostly achieved and now Tesla is lacking a purpose?

It would be if Elon didn't own a space company.  SpaceX is the long term sustainability play if we can move industry off earth over the next few hundred years.  Let earth be a garden

I mean, it’s NEAR infinite, from a first principles perspective. Definitely need to get off this planet for that to continue.

You’re right. What Tesla is perusing is a “Star Trek: The Next Generation” future.

Each master plan…the deviation between actual implementation and projection gets longer and longer with considerably more unpredictable headwinds even for the richest man in the world

No, that might be your definition, but it's not the definition of a utopia. The definition of Utopia is technically "no place" as in a place that doesn't exist. The idea is that it's a "perfect society" which will never exist. Perfect could mean a lot of different things to different people. What does it mean to Tesla? I used to be confident that Tesla thought a perfect society was one in which technology is created responsibly and in a way that takes care of our world. Now they simply want infinite abundance, which is antithetical to living alongside the rest of our planet's inhabitants.

[It is indeed, somehow, less concise. ](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1961450257176502656)

Interesting. I agree that infinite abundance is basically impossible. Scarcity can’t be solved…but can they generate enough energy and reduce the overall cost burden to build/consume products or services to the point that it significantly reduces humanity’s consumption levels? Seems their goal is to contribute to the mobility, energy, and labor parts of the equation, which are obviously pretty important.

It's impressive how self-congratulatory, yet utterly devoid of actual content that was.

This said fucking nothing. What's the masterplan here? Autonomous and robot. What's changed? Any advance in either? Meh FSD maybe a bit but they are going to have a lot of issues with HW2.5 and 3 with all their promises they have everything they need to drive but they actually don't. A lot of legal problems are going to follow the millions of cars they made that people bought based on the promise. He's acting like they only need to fix any of them that bought FSD but he's already lost this argument in court before and had to pay to upgrade someone. I know people who bought it with the plan to upgrade to FSD when it progresses to full.

I'm sure if some genius at Tesla invents a way to make panels cheaper than what the factories in China can mass-produce, Tesla will get into that. As it is right now, Tesla manufacturing panels would be counterproductive, as those would be more expensive than what is already available in abundance. Where Tesla is active is integrating solar installations with Powerwall and charging. But even there, Tesla is just one manufacturer among many and isn't that outstanding. (Although the availability of other good systems on the American market may be low.)

Duh. It's a mission statement, not a product announcement...

personally i hope the future allows us to pull back vastly pull back out our land usage so nature can again have most of the planet.

even then growth is technically finite. the goal is abundance not infinite

I just feel that the administration that he helped put into power is against every initiative he has. He got played because he was rich and the GOP wanted money.

No

Tesla has lost the plot here

Really feel like Tesla has lost it… shame.

Master Plan Part V Step 1: Innovate more innovatively…

I don’t think they really mean “infinite”. More like “the limit approaches infinity”, but that doesn’t sound as good.

The problem is that the current RoI on residential solar frequently is questionable, and it makes selling your house harder. Tesla has the right idea here that batteries at the home and generating the power in solar/wind farms seems to be the appropriate balance now. You charge your batteries when power is cheap, and then you can either reinforce the grid during high demand or use them for backups when appropriate. The new challenge is getting battery costs way down so that people can more easily run 50+ kwh without going broke.

It ain’t the cheapest car , but they do have the best selling car in the world. Kinda suggest the masses are affording it yeah?

Another bait from the great master.

It’s like the game universal Paperclips. Unlimited growth gets bad for everyone real quick.

Ive sold two houses with solar, they were absolutely not hard to sell with solar them. Multiple agents told me the buyers viewed it as a positive.

Maybe he thought remaining apolitical would put the mission at risk.

Can't even get to self driving? Lol what car do you have? Mine drives me everywhere.

I'm happy you had that experience. However when they're encumbered with contracts, which is not infrequent, it can get messy.

It's kind of always been the same overarching goal: increase the chances that the future doesn't suck

The one positive poster getting downvoted to the bottom... This sub sucks balls now

Yeah both of mine were paid off.

*"I have concepts of a plan"*

They make the Toyota RAV4?

That would be an SUV I’ll grant you that though, they make the 2nd best selling car in the world. Doesn’t change the point much

We've done a step in this already via the industrial revolution. Food and clothing being an example. Current scarcity bottlenecks seem to be labor and services which AI and human robotics may help with.

You can have both. I want a future with trillions of being living with abundance among the asteroid belt and planets, leaving the earth as a nature sanctuary

It's just more obfuscation and deceit. The guys pumping the stock will be the guys the robots replace. Literally ZERO IQ! bahahah

Bingo my friend, now go deeper and wider. It is the beginning of the end...

It was a typo. "**The mission is now transitioning the world to sustain Elon's abundance**"

My dog could have written a better business plan. :)

Regular panels are actually better in most environments. The tiles run much hotter and become less efficient because there is no heatsink besides the attic, which is usually pretty hot. Traditional panels on 4040s get a bunch of airflow under them to cool them off, which ends up allowing them to produce more than a full roof would.

So they no longer have a real plan.... Explains a lot. Tthe previous plans were far more focused

Direct ROI in upstate NY (Not ideal for solar) was 13 years last I checked. Less if you consider inflation and rising electricity costs over time.

Are you referring to the payback period, or getting an actual return? Let me explain why the payback period is actually negative return on investment compared to the market (which is the benchmark for RoI). Let's say solar panels are $20k, and it takes ten years to make $20k of electricity (and we will be kind and say that's inflation-adjusted, which those calculations often aren't). That is $2000 of electricity per year, assuming no maintenance or whatever. If the market returns at 5% inflation-adjusted on average, your $20k would be worth about $32.5k in ten years if you invested in the market. That means you are actually $12.5k behind in ten years, and that makes residential solar in this scenario an extremely poor investment on its own merits. If you are using it as an off-grid or backup solution, there may be value there beyond the pure monetary, and that's OK, but the math doesn't math, as the kids say.

Continue your math for 30 years (minimum expected lifetime of panels) Also consider rising electricity costs.

Make sure you're including decreased solar panel efficiency along with your power cost rises (which I don't necessarily agree with as a given). The return by residential solar still falls short by a huge amount when the market returns at 5%. What do you think I'm missing here?

No solar after 30 years $20k invested @5% = $86k Minus cost of electricity over 30yr = $60k Net $26k Solar after 30 years $20k up front, no interest accrued for the first 10 years For the next 20 years, invest savings from electricity, $2k per year @5% = 66k Net $46k This does not account for increasing electricity cost, even 2% per year would be significant. Panels do not decrease by 2% annual, and decrease less over time

I just have to buy tesla stock I guess, over and over

I mean that's cool I guess, but in the US for instance multiple "car" companies don't even sell cars anymore. Everyone wants SUVs and trucks. The Ford F-150 for instance has out sold all Tesla models combined by itself in the US in 2024.

I dont understand why people dont include the cost of electricity.. My parents were paying 230ish a month in the summer and 185 in the winter when they got their panels 5 years ago. Now they pay 120 a month flat, to lease them... and their power bill has been 7.50 for 5 years and in those 5 years everyone around them has had to go through incredible increases on their electric bill.. (google "eversource public benefits charge") - meanwhile they continue to pay 7.50 to eversource and 120 for the panels.. it's saved them 1000's of dollars over 5 years and they went EV a while back, so now no longer paying for gas. The panels have out performed estimates for almost the entire time they've been on the roof.