Can Toyota, Ford, VW Catch Up to Tesla and BYD in the EV Race — or Is It Already Too Late?

Is there a race? If so it’s probably a turtle and hare situation. Slow and steady wins the race.

Never say never. Really anything can happen.

I think everyone would have a different opinion on this question; It really comes down to the what the buyer's needs are, and what satisfies their psychology with the purchase decision? I know myself, I am spec-driven, with a careful absorption of the information first, seeing how that fits into my life as a new acquisition - I want it to add good value, not having frustrating elements like "oh, that's how it is" without weighing it up beforehand. I really think each continent will move toward their own EV manufacturer - Tesla for USA, Asia for Asia, Europe for Europe etc, with smatterings of variety in continents that don't have EV manufacturing - South America / Oceania getting Chinese and American depending on price point. It's still an evolving race but really BYD are just getting everything so right, and pricing really well it's hard to see anything else coming at them.

VW has a solid base in Europe were their EV sales rise above market average and increased sales in the US. They are about to overhaul their Software within the next 2 years. They know, how to produce cars which drive good. Take away the Software, Tesla and the chinese are behind in regards of suspension, steering, lights and brakes (although BYD is catching up, on the other side their consumption is high). And due to still strong sales of ICE cars, they have a good income from that and an established service network And VW delivering also otherwise. Their robotaxis are already ob the road and start in several cities soon. The Travel Assist is way better than the 'Autopilot'. And Tesla has not that much advantage in volume of production. It is no difference, if you produce 500.000 or 1.5 million cars. And battery tech? The charging curve of the new MY is the slowest in that price range. BMWs Neue Klasse will also be a huge step forward. Similar for Kia/Hyundai. And the legacy car makers have a strong brand name, they can survive a few slower years.

To Tesla?! Oh yes. Tesla did not do anything new really in the last 5 years and have their own understanding of "premium"... :D I think in Europe VW already overtook tesla technologically. Underlying hardware is better in VW already, and VW did acquired Rivan to get their experience in software developemnt... That was recognized even by Ford, which buys their Capri and Explorer EV from VW now... VW has now excellent models in the whole ID lineup (ID.7, ID.5, ID.4, ID.3) as well as the skoda lineup (Enyaq and Erloq). BMW cars - older i4, and newer i5 and x3 (neue Klasse) - ARE ABSOLUTELY FANTATIC. Mercedes did their homework, ditched the EQx lineup and with the experience produced something that people actually want... The sales did not catch up yet and Model Y is still best selling model - but the gap collapses as we speak. In US this is different story and other EV effectively don't exist in US.

Tesla is yesterday's news. Their sales have dropped each of the last 3 fiscal quarters (and likely 4 quarters in a row, but I can't find info for the 2nd quarter of 2025) Hyundai no longer has long wait times. They were past this hurdle last summer.

The new software will likely be just as problematic. It's rare that Europe make good software, they just don't seem to get it.

For Europe and the US they go with Rivian, the Chinese one is bought there. Edit: BMW was able to develope very good software. With the new cars, they really don't have to fear their competitors.

Technologically, yes, price - not a chance.

The legacy Detroit manufacturers will struggle. Jim Farley (CEO, Ford) has openly admitted to driving a BYD as his daily and that the Chinese manufacturers are light years ahead in tech. I would expect them to die a long and slow death. They’ll probably receive offers from Chinese manufacturers (think Geely, Volvo, and Mg) once the company has devalued sufficiently. I would also expect the American Government to block it on ‘national security grounds’ There’s a lot of hypotheticals there, but I can’t see it playing out any other way. The pace of innovation and model evolution out of China is astounding. Meanwhile I don’t think I’ve ever seen a Mach-e on the road, nor would it be on my list to consider as a purchase, it just doesn’t come to mind. Even flicking through Fords range of ICE cars, not much really appeals. They’ve introduced the Tourneo people mover (as a soft launch?), but at $75k for a diesel minibus I can’t imagine they’ve had much interest. Merc, Volvo and others are used to running off lower volumes. I think they’ll hold their place in the luxury segment as they ramp up production of cars that people actually want.

honestly I’m pretty impressed by how far BYD has come, especially in the past couple of years. The tech inside the car, the price point, and the build quality are way better than I expected for the money. But I do agree there’s still a bit of a gap when it comes to aftersales service and brand trust compared to legacy brands like Toyota or Ford. That’s probably where legacy brands might still have an edge, at least for now. As for catching up with Tesla and BYD in the next 5-10 years… I think the real challenge for traditional automakers is battery supply, cost efficiency, and software. Legacy brands have experience, but BYD is huge in battery manufacturing and vertical integration. That’s a pretty big head start. I’d love to see more competition though — it’ll only make EVs better for all of us.

Agree, I think the gap will be tough for legacy brands to close quickly. Tesla and BYD have such a head start in EV manufacturing scale and software, and legacy automakers seem slower to adapt and innovate, especially on things like OTA updates and battery supply chains. But never say never — the big brands have deep pockets and loyal customer bases. Maybe they’ll surprise us in the next few years. Right now though, BYD feels like they’re moving faster than almost anyone expected.

You make some good points about VW and legacy brands. I agree they have strong ICE profits and a big service network, which helps them survive some slower EV years. But as a BYD Sealion 7 owner in Australia, I’ve been surprised at how quickly BYD has improved. Suspension and driving dynamics still have some way to go to match German brands, but BYD’s software and manufacturing scale are improving at lightning speed. And they’re pushing prices lower than many legacy brands can match. So I’d say legacy brands will survive, but it might be tough for them to compete in the mass-market EV segment if companies like BYD keep moving this fast.

Great points about buyer psychology and regional differences! I agree it’s not just about tech specs—it’s also how people feel about brands and what they’re used to. I’ve noticed BYD is winning a lot of people over here because of the value and how quickly they’re improving. Still, many buyers here also say they’d feel safer with legacy brands just because they’re familiar names. I think you’re right—it might split regionally for a while. But with how fast BYD is scaling and lowering costs, I wouldn’t underestimate them globally either!

Great points about VW and how the European market is shaping up! I agree VW has put a lot into their tech recently, and models like the ID.7 look impressive. But as a Sealion 7 owner in Australia, I’m seeing BYD make huge progress too—especially in how quickly they improve software and lower costs. It’s true that Tesla hasn’t launched radical new stuff lately, but their ecosystem and brand loyalty are still strong in many places. I wonder if VW and others can close the cost gap fast enough, especially as Chinese EVs keep getting more competitive. Curious to see how it plays out, especially outside Europe where the story can be quite different!

I would expect Toyota to be a major player in EVs before too long. Once they really throw their hat into the ring and get going there will be absolutely no stopping them. The company is also, as far as I know, run by sane, stable people - unlike...well...

Tesla definitely has challenges right now, but they’re still ahead in charging infrastructure and brand recognition in many places. Hyundai and others are catching up fast, especially with pricing and shorter wait times.

lol, legacy brands might have fancy tech, but those price tags still hit harder than regen braking on max!

Haha, true — if Jim Farley’s rolling around in a BYD, you know the times are changing! Detroit might still be talking big V8 energy, but BYD and friends are busy dropping new models like they’re mixtapes. The price tags alone make Ford’s Tourneo look like a luxury yacht. At this point, feels like legacy brands are jogging while China’s EV makers are running sprints… in rocket shoes.

Haha, true — if Toyota finally goes full EV samurai mode, it could get interesting fast. Right now they’re like that kid who shows up to a Formula 1 race… with a Prius.

Nah, different technology, and big brand will suffer if they want to shift from what they are good at to something new.

If Chinese EV can sell in U.S., there won’t be Tesla. Price point is day and night.

Both those brands are market disruptors. They have done their job. Well done. Toyota, for one, has a brand strategy based on longevity and market dominance. They are not racing either of them. The others mentioned are running around like headless chickens panicking. It is humour. Too late? Ask again in ten years.

Top late, Tesla has launched the robotaxi which is the future of transportation

My charging infrastructure is in my garage. Yeah, I bought a Hyundai Ioniq 5, which didn't catch up with Tesla, it leap-frogged Tesla. But Hyundai didn't get fully ramped up with production and start dropping pricing until this time last year. In October 2024, I received a 9k discount off of MSRP.

Ahh yes the sanity of the hydrogen boondoggle that cost Toyota billions in r&d that could have been used to make a BEV that doesn’t require a 4 million dollar hydrogen station. This is laid right at the feet of Akio Toyoda (who is a scum bag in the pockets of oil and gas companies) who was told by a certain CEO known for speaking his mind that hydrogen was a complete waste of time… back in 2017. Mr Rational Akio Toyoda took that as an affront and doubled down on hydrogen. Then they made the laughable BZX4 with its laughable range. Don’t worry tho… solid state is just around the corner and will totally save Toyota (as if the company that ONLY does EVs isn’t researching it 🤪) The CEO of Nokia said the iPhone was vaporware and it wasn’t possible to build. The rest is history. The same story will be told about Subaru, Toyota and Nissan. Honda has a shot with their GM partnership but they need to start learning how to actually build battery packs and electric motors instead of contracting it out. Vertical integration is key to an amazing EV experience.

Full disclosure: I’m a 2021 Model Y owner with 93,000 miles of amazing driving and a shocking lack of battery degradation. My next car will also be a Tesla. Might pick up a used X which has been a dream of mine for ages.

And yet… in China the Tesla Model Y outsells every offering BYD has in the same category… almost as if they are way better (I own a 2021) the Reddit world would have you believe.

Toyota is playing the long game, no doubt. But the pace at which BYD is scaling, especially outside China, feels like legacy brands underestimated how fast the EV tide would turn. Funny thing is, even the "headless chickens" might eventually find their rhythm — but by then, the race might be halfway done. Let’s see where everyone stands in 2030. Should be a wild ride.

Who.cares?

The person that thinks Toyota actually has a shot when they are institutionally unable to change. Fuck they only begrudgingly made the Prius so they could sell more Tacos and Tundras

That's a great point — legacy brands often have their DNA rooted in ICE technology and it’s tough to reinvent that overnight. EVs aren’t just about swapping engines; it's a whole new game — battery management, OTA software, vertical integration... even user expectations are different now. If the big brands can’t pivot fast enough, they might end up being experts at yesterday’s technology in tomorrow’s market.

It's true that early BYD models might’ve drawn some technical inspiration from Tesla — just like how many automakers learn from each other. But over time, BYD has clearly developed its own path, especially in battery tech and vertical integration. Their Blade Battery, for example, is one of the most talked-about innovations in the EV space. And Tesla has even been spotted testing BYD batteries in some of its vehicles! At this point, it's less about who copied who — and more about who's moving faster now.

That’s definitely a bold move by Tesla, and they’re great at making headlines — but I’d argue the “future of transportation” is still very much tied to who can scale *today*.

It’s going to be a very fragmented race: Tesla might dominate in software, Hyundai in styling and ride quality, but BYD is scaling like no one else. And at the end of the day, local service, delivery times, and value for money may matter more than headlines.

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Tesla will scale the robotaxi very quickly

legacy brands definitely face some internal “speed bumps” 🚧 when it comes to fast innovation. Too many decision layers, outdated supply chains, and sometimes just too much pride in the old ways.

OP is generating all his comments with ChatGPT

From EU pov Tesla is gone, they lost already before musk totally fucked them last year.  They are behind in all segments now, they have severely lacking infrastructure. They might just pull out of Europe soon.

What a load of nonsense.

The model y was the top selling EV in the UK last month

But not even top 10 brand right? They used to sit at the top now they don't even reach top 10 anymore, not even top 20 in some places.

great try, but not